While much of what happens during a presidential race is hidden these days, the campaigns can’t hide their TV buys. Now, a few months into the general election, the advertising reveals volumes about campaign strategies and resources. Since April 1, a reasonable start date to the Trump-Biden contest, $214 million has been spent on political […]
7/24/20, 12:30pm: This article has been updated with more recent polling averages. A month ago, a public poll showed President Donald Trump leading Joe Biden by just 2 points in Arkansas. That would be easy to dismiss as an outlier, considering Trump won the state by 27 points four years ago, except for the growing […]
Independence Day 2020 was a time of reflection for some, a time of celebration for others, and time off for pollsters. Relatively few new polls were released in the days surrounding the holiday, but available surveys still suggest a wide gap between Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. In an average of 14 national polls […]
Weeks before the 1996 general election, operatives at the Republican National Committee and National Republican Congressional Committee urged GOP campaigns to adopt a last-minute, new strategy. As New York Times reporter Adam Clymer wrote, they urged “their party’s Congressional candidates to cut loose from Bob Dole and press voters to maintain a Republican majority and […]
While President Donald Trump’s re-election is at its most precarious point yet, another hot issue is moving into the conversation which could delay or prevent him from regaining his footing. Trump has slipped significantly in the polls, both nationwide and in crucial swing states, against former vice president Joe Biden, and he suffered an embarrassing […]
June has been a rocky month for relations between President Donald Trump and the pollsters of America. Following his renewed admonishment of outlets who publish unfavorable toplines — along with his steadfast endorsement of dubious “unskewed” data — the president seems to realize he’s behind right now. Indeed, in an average of national polls conducted […]
No matter how you look at the polls, or which polls you look at, Joe Biden is gaining nationally. In fact, according to the present Presidential Snapshot in Time, the former vice president is benefiting from his most comfortable edge in months. Across 34 national surveys released from May 30 through June 12, Biden led […]
In May 2006, The Raconteurs released their Grammy-nominated debut single, “Steady, As She Goes.” In May 2020, presidential polling followed that advice. Joe Biden maintains a steady national lead over President Donald Trump, while new state polls still show a tight race in key battlegrounds. By discussing one-off surveys and comprehensive aggregates alike, this Presidential […]
As parts of the country begin to reopen — and rapper Nicki Minaj scores her first number-one song on the Billboard charts — the race for president has barely changed over the past two weeks. This Presidential Snapshot in Time series seeks to understand the polling trends driving the 2020 election. By putting state- and […]