Analysis

484 Results

Election Predictions Look Different (and Better) Now that All the Races are Over

More than two months later, the 2020 elections are still handing out lessons. The latest: Don’t judge election projections until all the results have hatched. Lost in the aftermath of the siege on the U.S. Capitol was the fact that Democrats won two Senate runoffs in Georgia. Not only does control of the Senate have […]

Lessons and Challenges: Assessing the Performance of Polls in the 2020 Election

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How Biden Rebuilt the Blue Wall

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How Trump’s 2024 Candidacy Could Complicate GOP Chances in 2022

After President Donald Trump boosted down-ballot Republicans in 2020, the GOP might be excited about his reported plans to avenge his loss by immediately beginning a race for the presidency in 2024. But while he delivered the White House once before and has shown a unique ability to consistently outperform the polls, his candidacy could […]

Trump’s Surprising Gains with Minority Voters

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Presidential Snapshot in Time (October 30, 2020)

The 2020 campaign isn’t quite over yet, but it is reaching the denouement. And as the final surveys continue to trickle in until Tuesday, now is a great time to step back and contextualize the trends driving the past six months of general election polls.  Starting off with today’s topline: in an average of the […]

2020 Election Preview: Bracing for History

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2020 Elections: Democrats Poised for a Sweep

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Presidential Snapshot in Time (October 16, 2020)

We’re 17 days removed from the first presidential debate, 14 days removed from President Donald Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis, and 18 days away from November 3rd. It might feel like a year, but it’s only been two weeks — and following the fallout of these campaign-shaking events, Joe Biden finds himself ahead by double digits. In […]

Presidential Snapshot in Time (October 2, 2020)

In light of last night’s news about President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump testing positive for the coronavirus, there’s no doubt that this election has already received an October surprise. Pair this development with Tuesday night’s rowdy presidential debate, and it’s easy to conjure up the narrative of a campaign turned on its […]