Tennessee Redistricting: Republicans Seek 9-0 after SCOTUS goes 6-3
Wasting little time after the Supreme Court defanged what remained of the Voting Rights Act, Tennessee Republicans passed a map designed to elect nine Republican members of Congress this fall. The Volunteer State’s delegation is currently split 8-1 in favor of Republicans, with Democrat Steve Cohen of Memphis as the odd man out.
The new map, signed into law Thursday by Gov. Bill Lee, dismantles Cohen’s majority-Black 9th District by parceling Democratic voters out into neighboring, GOP-friendly seats. Under the new map, Tennessee has no majority-Black seats. Expected legal challenges could shed light on just how reduced in power the Voting Rights Act is following the court’s 6-3 decision in Callais vs. Louisiana last week.
The legislature also re-opened candidate filing until May 15. All nine districts on the new map are rated Solid Republican.
1st District. The 1st remains unchanged under the new map, and Rep. Diana Harshbarger doesn’t have any challengers in the primary, where she received just 19 percent in her initial 2020 election.
2nd District. The 2nd remains unchanged under the new map. Rep. Tim Burchett is running unopposed in the GOP primary.
3rd District. The 3rd remains largely unchanged under the new map and is still anchored by Chattanooga. Rep. Chuck Fleischmann is the presumptive GOP nominee.
4th District. The new 4th District reaches into Davidson County (Nashville), picking up Democratic voters previously placed in the 5th and 6th districts. As a result, the district gets moderately less friendly to the GOP; its Baseline score decreases from R+39 to R+18. That’s more than enough of a cushion for the GOP nominee. Rep. Scott DesJarlais’s personal baggage almost always ensures he has a primary challenger, and with 33 percent new constituents he may have to take the primary more seriously.
5th District. Currently on the edge of the House battleground, the 5th District is radically reshaped in the new map. The new seat, which pulls in pieces of the old 5th (17 percent), 7th (28 percent), 8th (22 percent) and 9th (32 percent) districts, begins in Memphis in the state’s southwest corner, snakes north along the Mississippi River, and hangs a right turn at the Kentucky border, extending east to Montgomery and Williamson counties. It no longer includes any of Nashville. GOP Rep. Andy Ogles is the biggest beneficiary of any incumbent on the map. Not only does the new 5th pick up a few points of GOP performance, with a Baseline of R+17 compared to R+15 under the old map, but the map kneecaps both of his most worrisome opponents. Former commissioner of agriculture Charlie Hatcher, who is running against Ogles in the GOP primary, sees his home base in Williamson County drawn out of the district. And Ogles’ likely general election opponent, Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, likewise sees half of Columbia and surrounding Maury County drawn out of the district.
6th District. While the core of the 6th District stays intact, roughly 40 percent of voters under the new map will be new to the district, which reaches further into Nashville than previously. Politically, the most significant change is that state Rep. Johnny Garrett, one of the leading candidates for the GOP nomination, sees his legislative seat excised from the district. That may lead to him dropping out, which he hinted at while expressing support for the new map. Former Rep. Van Hilleary is the other major candidate running in the GOP primary to succeed Rep. John Rose, who is running for governor.
7th District. The new 7th is a more compact seat that includes the western half of Nashville as well as the city’s western and northern suburbs. Previously the 7th ran north to south and touched both Kentucky and Alabama, and included the city of Franklin in Williamson County.
Politically, the 7th gains a few points of GOP performance, with its Baseline increasing from R+18 to R+20. Rep. Matt Van Epps, the newest member of the delegation, won a competitive special election late last year but should have an easier time winning a full term this fall.
8th District. The 8th District absorbs much of northeast Memphis, and though the new district contains significantly more Democrats than before, it remains quite friendly to the GOP, with a new Baseline of R+20. That’s more than enough for Rep. David Kustoff to win re-election.
9th District. The current 9th District, a compact Solid Democratic seat based in Memphis, is effectively demolished by the new map. In its place is a seat that stretches east in a thin line from South Memphis, 250 miles along the Mississippi and Alabama borders, and then shoots north to take in the eastern half of Williamson County. The new district is just 31 percent Black, compared to 61 percent under the old map. Its Baseline is an uncompetitive R+15 and it would have voted for Donald Trump in 2024 by 21 points.
