Ratings

House

The Outlook

Republicans have a 220-215 majority. Democrats need a net gain of 3 seats for a majority. Projection: Democrats +10-20 seats.

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Updated: October 15, 2026 at 6:34pm
218

House Analysis

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House Report Shorts (Oct. 15, 2026)

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Where White Women Could Swing in November

With the 2026 battleground map expanding into redder districts and states, one group has re-emerged as a key voting bloc: white women. Comprising around two-fifths of the national electorate, white women typically lean toward Republicans, but they do swing in wave years. And despite growing polarization between white women with and without a college degree, Democrats are poised…

Following the Money: Disagreements on the House Battleground

When it comes to the core House battleground, both parties tend to agree more than they disagree. Districts such as Texas’ 34th, Colorado’s 8th and Florida’s 25th are consensus toss-up seats, and have the money and attention to prove it. Democratic and Republican donors and groups have flooded those districts and dozens of others with advertising since Labor…

Senate

The Outlook

Republicans have a 53-47 majority. Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats for a majority. Projection: Democrats +3-5 seats.

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Updated: October 15, 2026 at 6:35pm
50

Senate Analysis

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Senate Report Shorts (Oct. 15, 2026)

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Where White Women Could Swing in November

With the 2026 battleground map expanding into redder districts and states, one group has re-emerged as a key voting bloc: white women. Comprising around two-fifths of the national electorate, white women typically lean toward Republicans, but they do swing in wave years. And despite growing polarization between white women with and without a college degree, Democrats are poised…

Senate Report Shorts (Oct. 1, 2026)

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Governor

The Outlook

Republicans control 26 governorships to Democrats’ 24.

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Updated: October 15, 2026 at 6:28pm
25

Governor Analysis

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Governor Report Shorts (Oct. 15, 2026)

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Where White Women Could Swing in November

With the 2026 battleground map expanding into redder districts and states, one group has re-emerged as a key voting bloc: white women. Comprising around two-fifths of the national electorate, white women typically lean toward Republicans, but they do swing in wave years. And despite growing polarization between white women with and without a college degree, Democrats are poised…

Governor Report Shorts (Oct. 1, 2026)

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