Anything can happen in November. At least that’s what we’re supposed to say. But is it really true? Even in the middle of a global pandemic and after a historic impeachment process, the political environment hasn’t changed dramatically over the last year and a half. The coronavirus has crippled the economy and locked down the […]
With the Democratic primary in the rearview mirror, we can focus on the matchup between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden with a clear conscience. Over the next six months, there will be a flurry of head-to-head polls, and handicapping the general election will assuredly rely upon public opinion polling. But virtually any avid survey […]
A week ago, challenger Jill Karofsky won a hotly contested Wisconsin Supreme Court election, defeating incumbent Daniel Kelly. Even though it was a state race, the results were the latest evidence that the Badger State will be a presidential battleground in November. Although Wisconsin judicial elections are technically nonpartisan, Karofsky was known as the liberal […]
Through all of the twists and turns of this election, I’ve been confident about one thing: record-breaking turnout. Obviously, with the spread of a pandemic, I’ve started to question my projection a bit. I first wrote about the potential for a record-setting turnout in December 2018, and for the most of the cycle it looked […]
The attack ad began as many do: ominous music, stock photos of people looking worried, a narrator gravely intoning on the failure of Montana Sen. Steve Daines to protect his constituents’ healthcare. But this ad, which was produced by Democratic group Protect Our Care and aired on March 12 in Missoula, also did something new: […]
The 2016 Democratic primary in Michigan was a wakeup call. With every recent survey of the state showing Hillary Clinton ahead by double digits, many deemed a Bernie Sanders victory out of the question — until results came in. The Vermont senator’s 23 percentage point overperformance is now considered one of the biggest polling errors […]
Unfortunately, it sounds like we’re just at the beginning of what could be a multi-week or multi-month coronavirus crisis, so handicapping the pandemic’s impact on the elections is premature. But there are at least a handful of questions that will lead us to understanding the fallout, once the situation and answers come into focus. How […]
With South Carolina and Super Tuesday looming, and the potential of a second term for President Donald Trump staring the party in the face, seven Democratic candidates didn’t miss an opportunity to attack each other during the debate in Charleston, South Carolina, on Tuesday night. But will any of it matter? Two Bloombergs. Once again, […]