Category Archive: Nathan L. Gonzales

Presidential Battleground Spotlight: North Carolina

New York 3: Israel Retirement Sets Up GOP Takeover Opportunity

Report Shorts (January 8, 2016) Alabama, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania

Ted Cruz Might Not Need Trump Supporters

Steve Israel Retirement Sets Up GOP Takeover Opportunity

Indiana Senate: Is Stutzman Still the Club for Growth’s Guy?

Virginia 5: Hurt to Retire, Leaves Potentially Competitive Seat

New York 22: Hanna Retirement Puts Seat At Risk for Republicans

Why House Races Still Matter (Even in Safe Districts)

Colorado Senate: Republicans Waiting for Challenger To Emerge

Pennsylvania House: Democrats Searching for Key Contenders

Presidential Battleground Spotlight: New Hampshire

Stu in Review: Dumb Stuff I Wrote This Year

Republicans Need More Than More Hispanic Voters to Win White House

An Independent Candidacy Would Make Trump the Biggest Loser

What Does It Take To Crack the Inner Circle of Political Consultants?

4 Court Cases That Could Impact the 2016 Elections

Louisiana Senate: In the Wake of David Vitter

Presidential Battleground Spotlight: Wisconsin

Illinois House: Filing Deadline Passes, Along with Two Democratic Takeover Opportunities

Florida House: New Lines Change Outlook in 5 Races

Report Shorts (December 4, 2015) California Senate, Florida Senate, Maryland Senate

Time to Stop Reporting on Committee Fundraising Numbers

Imperfect Candidates Get Elected

New Hampshire Senate: Clash of the Titans

Presidential Battleground Spotlight: Virginia

Report Shorts (November 20, 2015) Arizona 1, Arkansas, Kentucky Senate, New York 22

House Retirement Rush Still Short of Average

Outsider Bevin Hires Insider Chief of Staff

EMILY’s List Support Isn’t Early Enough for Senate Hopeful

Is Vitter on the Verge of Losing Everything?

Why Trump Would Get Out of the Race

2016 Senate Overview: Playing Field Comes Into Focus, But Climate is Unclear

2016 Senate Overview (November 6, 2015) Alabama – Kansas

2016 Senate Overview (November 6, 2015) Kentucky – New Mexico

2016 Senate Overview (November 6, 2015) New York – Wyoming

What Does Bevin’s Victory in Kentucky Mean for Vitter’s Chances?

Don’t Blame Gerrymandering for GOP Civil War

Vitter’s Primary Performance Prompts Rating Change in Louisiana

Pelosi Sees a Wave; Strategists Say it’s Just a Ripple Now

John Boehner Shouldn’t Pack His Bags Just Yet

Democrats Divided in Fight for Maryland Senate Seat

Democrats Battle for Open House Seats in Maryland

Presidential Battleground Spotlight: Colorado

Report Shorts (October 16, 2015)

Draft Biden Organizer Dismissed Over Past Legal Problems

State Senator Prepares GOP Primary Challenge to Shimkus

Hassan’s Decision Changes Outlook in Two New Hampshire Races

Boehner’s Exit Leaves House Republicans With Challenging Next Chapter

Presidential Battleground Spotlight: Ohio

House Democrats Desperate to Make up Ground in New York

Report Shorts (October 1, 2015)

Indiana Reps Still Wrestling With Residency

Florida Senate: Too Big to Fail

Presidential Battleground Spotlight: Florida

Report Shorts (September 18, 2015)

No Rating Change After Benishek’s Retirement in Michigan

More House Retirements Likely to Come

Wisconsin Senate: Badger State Battle, Part 2

Colorado 6: Can Carroll Cause Coffman to Stumble?

Report Shorts (Minnesota 2, North Dakota Governor Senate, Washington 8 Governor

Reichert Seriously Considering Washington Governor’s Race

Parties Play Politics With FEC Complaints

Campaign Committees Open Holes While Filling Others

Crist, Culver Contemplate Humbling Transition to the House

Indiana 3: Home is Where the Heart Is

2015-16 Gubernatorial Overview: Parties Brace for Bigger Battles Ahead

Report Shorts (August 21, 2015) Florida 5, Illinois 15, Texas 16, Iowa 1 & 4

Group Suggests ‘Schock Waves’ in Illinois Special Election

A Modest Proposal: Timeshare Congressional Districts

2016 House Overview: Democrats Struggle To Gain Ground

2016 House Overview (August 11, 2015) Alabama – Illinois

2016 House Overview (August 11, 2015) Indiana – New Jersey

2016 House Overview (August 11, 2015) New Mexico – Wyoming

Democrats, Party Switchers and the Ghost of Ed Jany

A Brief Electoral History of Recently Indicted Congressmen

More Democratic Losses Could Be on the Horizon

2016 Senate Overview: Playing Field Comes Into Focus

2016 Senate Overview (July 24, 2015) Alabama – Kansas

2016 Senate Overview (July 24, 2015) Kentucky – New Mexico

2016 Senate Overview (July 24, 2015) New York – Wyoming

Less Hair Could Mean More Votes in Minnesota

Heck’s Decision Prompts Rating Change in Two Nevada Races

North Carolina Senate: Life After Hagan

Pennsylvania 6: Suburban Districts Elude Democrats

Yarmuth Retirement Rumor Offers Window Into Future

Michigan 7: Democrats Target Walberg (Again)

Report Shorts (June 17, 2015) Colorado Senate, Georgia Senate, Indiana Senate, Nevada Senate

Race Plays Out on Congressional Baseball Game Field

14 Open House Seats, Few Takeover Opportunities

Illinois Senate: The Most Vulnerable Senator in the Country

Arizona Landscape Shifts in Two Races

Report Shorts (May 29, 2015) Indiana Governor, Indiana Senate, Kentucky Governor, Nevada Senate

Kirkpatrick’s Decision Prompts Ratings Changes in Two Arizona Races

500 Attack Emails Couldn’t Take Down Thom Tillis

Nevada Senate: Republicans Hope for Heck of a Race

Nevada House: Republicans on the Defensive

Path to GOP Nomination Starts by Dealing with Loss in Iowa

Report Shorts (May 15, 2015) California Senate, California 25, Indiana Senate, Indiana 3

Parties Divide and Conquer Independent Spending

Senate Races, Pro Salaries and Perspective on Spending

Texas 23: Hurd(ing) Voters

Maine 2: Bruce Almighty?

Report Shorts (May 1, 2015) Indiana Governor, Oregon Governor, West Virginia Governor

DSCC Preferred Chairman’s Opponent in 2006 Primary

Context for Facebook Chatter About Presidential Candidates

Senate Overview: Retirements and Primaries Matter for Majority

2016 Senate Overview (April 17, 2015) Alabama – Kansas

2016 Senate Overview (April 17, 2015) Kentucky – New Mexico

2016 Senate Overview (April 17, 2015) New York – Wyoming

Wyden Looks Safe, but Democratic Rift Is Real

2016 House Overview: Democrats Begin Long Road Back to Majority

2016 House Overview (April 3, 2015) Alabama – Illinois

2016 House Overview (April 3, 2015) Indiana – New Jersey

2016 House Overview (April 3, 2015) New Mexico – Wyoming

Report Shorts (April 3, 2015) Florida Senate, Indiana Senate, Illinois Senate, Nevada Senate

How Reid Reacted When a Republican Senator Was Indicted

Democrats Start With Narrow Advantage in Nevada Open Seat

Lopach Leads March Toward Democratic Senate Majority

Schilling Considering Special Election for Schock Seat

Indiana Senate Race Moves Out of Safe

Illinois 18: Who Will Replace Aaron Schock?

Looking for Retirements in All the Wrong Places

Iowa 1: Freshman in the City

Report Shorts (March 20, 2015) Florida Senate, Maryland Senate, Michigan’s 11th, New Jersey Senate

Young Republican Explores Primary vs. Scott DesJarlais

Familiar Faces in Presidential Battleground States

Mississippi 1 Special: Republicans Avoid ‘08 Redo

Maryland Senate: Democrats Jockey for Mikulski’s Seat

Report Shorts (March 6, 2015) CA Senate, FL Senate, MO Governor, NC Senate

Feingold, Sestak Face History, Former Foes in Senate Rematches

Senate Challenger Battles Secretary of State Curse

How Much Money Does it Take to Defeat a Senator?

New York 19: Top-Tier Holding Pattern

California Senate: Boxer’s Retirement Complicates Contenders’ Plans to Move Up the Ladder

Oregon: Brown Takes the Helm as Kitzhaber Resigns

Report Shorts (February 20, 2015) California 44, Mississippi 1, Missouri Senate

Why Special Elections Really Matter

Democrats Might Need to Lose the White House to Win the House Majority

Ohio Senate: Portman Shifts from Offense to Defense

Noah’s Ark and the Republican Race for President

Democrats Gamble With New York Special Election

When Activists Run for Office

Why Even Democrats Love Talking About Joni Ernst

Democrats Looking Beyond New York 11 Special Election

2015-16 Gubernatorial Overview: Washington Gridlock Puts Governors in the Spotlight

2015-16 Gubernatorial Overview (January 23, 2015) Delaware – West Virginia

Pennsylvania 8: Democrats Looking Forward to Open Seat

Report Shorts (January 23, 2015) California Senate, Iowa Senate, Pennsylvania Senate

When a House Member Should Retire

2016 Senate Overview: Republicans Start on the Defensive

2016 Senate Overview (January 9, 2015) Alabama – Kansas

2016 Senate Overview (January 9, 2015) Kentucky – New Mexico

2016 Senate Overview (January 9, 2015) New York – Wyoming

What Happened to The Rothenberg Political Report?

Republican to Retire from Competitive House Seat in New York

Very Early Handicapping on Special Election in New York’s 11th District

Beltway View Clashes with District Dynamic in Illinois’ 12th

Loss Puts Terry in Exclusive Club

What Kind of Race Would Russ Feingold Run in 2016?

Democrats Abandoned Mary Landrieu in the Runoff. Does it Matter?

Draft Ben Carson Group Complicates Potential Presidential Campaign

How to Handle a Broken Campaign Promise

Freshman Class Filled With Losers

The 2014 Elections: How’d We Do?

Louisiana Races Go Into Overtime

The Stunningly Static White Evangelical Vote

Unsuccessful House Candidate Already ‘In’ for 2016

No Guarantee Democrats Rebound in 2016

Review: 6 Races Both Parties Viewed Completely Differently

Ratings Change: Louisiana Senate Moves from Tilt Republican To Lean Republican

The Midterms and the Super Bowl, a Tale of Two Routs

GOP Candidates More Popular Than Democrats in Top Senate Races

Jesse Ferguson Lives to Fight Another Day

Election Eve Update: Gubernatorial Race Ratings Changes

Election Eve Update: House Republicans on Edge of Good, Great Election Night

Election Eve Update: GOP Prospects Continue to Improve in the Senate

Think more competitive House races would help? They might actually make things worse.

House Outlook: Measuring the GOP Wave

Governors on the Defensive as Close Races Go Down to the Wire

Will Obama Leave the Democratic Party Better Than He Found It?

Ratings Change: Massachusetts Governor

Seven More House Races Creep Toward Republicans

A Good Year May Not Save These Three Vulnerable House Republicans Either

Wither the National House Vote?

Gubernatorial Report Shorts (October 17, 2014)

Democrats Decidedly on Defense in the House

6 Races Both Parties View Completely Differently

Michigan Senate Seat Moves Away from Republicans

Fight for the Senate: Trajectory Unchanged

Democrats Focus on Open Seats, Weak Incumbents for House Bright Spots

Volatility Reigns in Gubernatorial Contests

Family Ties May Not Be Enough to Save Vulnerable Senators

Senate Chairmen Try to Avoid Historic Home-State Losses

A Bible, a Keg Stand, and a Snowmobile: The Keys to Holding a Democratic Majority in the Senate

The Election Results Don’t Matter

Republicans Ready to Add to House Majority

The Amazingly Static House Playing Field

Will Women Lose Ground in the House GOP After 2014?

Putting House Expectations Into Context