Category Archive: Nathan L. Gonzales

House: Money Isn’t Enough to Save Incumbents in Wave Elections

2026 Senate Overview: Democrats Making Progress

Wyoming Senate: Lummis Not Seeking Re-election

It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like … a Traditional Midterm Election

Maine 2: Open Seat Shifts Toward Republicans

12 Initial Takeaways from Tuesday’s Elections

New Hampshire Senate: Sununu Bid Boosts Republican Chances

Arizona 1: Open Seat Shifts to Toss-up

North Carolina Senate: Tillis Decision Creates Open Seat

What Happened and What’s Next after the 2024 Elections?

Outlier or Early Warning? Late Iowa Poll Confounds

7 Initial Thoughts After the Vice Presidential Debate

Trump, Harris Face Off in Philadelphia with the White House on the Line

Presidential: Walz Joins Harris on Democratic Ticket

Presidential: Trump’s Conviction is not the Time for Snap Political Analysis

Presidential Rating Change: Nevada Shifts to Toss-up

Illinois 12: Bost in Danger of Losing Primary

Presidential: Biden and Trump Locked in Close Race

A Good Night for Trump and Polling, and Other Post-Iowa Thoughts

Jacob Rubashkin Promoted to Deputy Editor

New Year, New House Ratings

Gerrymandering Is Not to Blame for the Speaker Mess

Initial 2024 Presidential Battleground State Ratings

How Trump’s Legal Problems Could Affect Down Ballot Republicans

No One Knows for Sure How Trump’s Legal Problems Will Play Out

If History’s a Guide, Biden Ain’t Getting Any Stronger

The Problem with our Politics is not Partisanship

Virginia and New Jersey Governor: A Big Night for Republicans

Rating Change: Virginia Governor to Toss-up

Why the 2024 Presidential Race Will Start Later Than Expected

The One Thing Biden Can’t Afford to Lose

RIP, Rally ’Round the Flag

How Afghanistan Will (and Won’t) Matter in 2022 Midterms

Stop Attacking Losing Candidates

Is John Boozman Too Nice for the Republican Party?

When We’ll Know How Much Trump’s Support is Worth

These Four States Could Decide Control of Congress in 2022

While You Were Underground: A Political Update for Cicadas

Special Elections in Redistricting Cycles: To Play or Not to Play?

Republicans Should Disband If They Don’t Win Back the House in 2022

The Case to Keep Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s Cash

Few Opportunities as Parties Battle for Senate Control

Let’s Talk About How We Talk About House Retirements

Three Lessons from the Ghost of Redistricting Past

Six Senators Who Owe Their Hill Careers to Redistricting

How the Lack of Ticket-Splitting Leads to Gridlock

Recent History Shows Senate Retirements Don’t Tell Us Squat

Election Predictions Look Different (and Better) Now that All the Races are Over

Why Our 2022 Ratings Aren’t Imminent

What Makes a Race Competitive?

How Trump’s 2024 Candidacy Could Complicate GOP Chances in 2022

The Fight for the Senate Continues into 2022

Supreme Court Fight Isn’t Guaranteed Game-Changer

Trump Needs a Convention Bounce

Mississippi Senate: Espy’s 1988 convention speech offers clues to 2020 optimism

Politicians are the Worst (But Most Important) Political Analysts

Candidate Conversation – Jason Atkinson (R)

Lesson Learned? The State of Statewide Polling

Candidate Conversation – Sarah Riggs Amico (D)

RIP, Election Night

Five Thoughts After the Las Vegas Democratic Debate

Candidate Conversation – Chris Bubser (D)

Virginia 7: No Such Thing as an Easy Race for Republicans

Is Trump really the MVP of the GOP?

California 50: GOP Benefits from Hunter’s Absence

2020 Senate Overview: GOP Women Hold Keys to GOP Majority

2020 Senate Overview (January 10, 2020): Alabama – Kansas

2020 Senate Overview (January 10, 2020): Kentucky-New Mexico

2020 Senate Overview (January 10, 2020): North Carolina – Wyoming

2020 Senate and House Outlook Looks a Lot Like It Did at the Start of 2019

Impeachment’s No ‘Game Changer’ and Other Pet Peeves

New York 27: Less Vulnerable With Collins Departure

Luke Skywalker and the Politics of Impeachment

9 Things I Think I Think After the North Carolina Redo Election

Texas 17: Add Another Republican to List of Retirements

Trump Vulnerability in a Primary is More Fiction than Fact

Trump Missing an Opportunity on Guns

House Open Seat Overview

Trump Admits He was a Liability in 2018

Fallout from Amash’s Decision in Michigan and Beyond

If at First You Don’t Succeed, Try, Try and Run Somewhere Else

Upcoming Debates an Important Next Stage in Presidential Campaign

Montana At-Large: Does Open Seat Help or Hurt Democrats’ Pickup Opportunity?

Why a GOP Super PAC is Bothering to Attack Steve Bullock’s Bid for President

Some House Members Are Contemplating Retirement, According to History

(Mostly) Political One-Liners: Pennsylvania Special, Kentucky Governor, and the Trail Blazers

What Can We Learn From the North Carolina Redo Election?

Stop Grading 2020 Candidate Recruitment, Particularly This Far From Election Day

Wyoming: One Open Seat or Two?

Republicans Have a Post-Trump Identity Crisis on the Horizon

How Gephardt’s 2004 Iowa Team Boosted the Democratic Party

The Case for Primaries: Arizona Edition

When It Comes to Younger Voters, Watch the Margin of Victory

New Mexico: Ben Ray Lujan Set to Announce Senate Candidacy on Monday

Fewer Members Taking the Leap to Governor

A Few Thoughts on the State of the Union Address

Pennsylvania 12 special election: Is Marino’s seat at risk?

5 reasons why there’s still no end to the shutdown

Why We’re Not Releasing 2020 Race Ratings Yet

House Primaries on the Horizon for Democrats in 2020

Expect Record Turnout in 2020

Are White Evangelicals the Saviors of the GOP?

The 2018 Midterms as the Buffet Election

Five Thoughts After the Mississippi Senate Race

It’s Not Too Early to Start Looking at the 2020 Senate Map

A Few Moves on the Eve of the Election

Republican Migraines and the Midterm Elections

Don’t Sweat the Election Night Surprises

Prepare to Be Disappointed on Election Night

A Congressional Candidate Plays Softball in an Ad, and I Have Lots of Questions

Why We’re Not Changing the Rating in Duncan Hunter’s Seat, Yet

Congress Isn’t Perfect but the Politicians Aren’t Always to Blame

Democratic Candidates Should Be Bolder on Gun Control, Poll Finds

Support for Roe is Up, But Other Abortion Polling Divided and Steady

I Met 12 Democratic Candidates in Two Days and Lived to Write About It

New Jersey 2: GOP House Open Seat Shifts to Likely Democratic

10 One-Liners after Tuesday’s Primaries

GOP Poll: Donnelly in Position to Win in Indiana

DCCC Makes Initial TV Reservations for Fall Fight

(Mostly) Political One-Liners: Hair in Montana Ads, Let’s Remember Candidates from Kentucky

Nebraska Senate: How Vulnerable is Deb Fischer?

Nathan’s (Mostly) Political One-Liners: Fraudulent Signatures, Roseanne, and Kindness

Nathan’s (Mostly) Political One-Liners: Barn Jackets, HGTV and Pop Punk Music

Pennsylvania 6 Rating Change: Costello Decision Shifts Seat to Likely Democratic

Illinois Primaries: Ratings Changes in Two Races

9 Things to Know about Pennsylvania’s 7th District Race

9 Things to Know about Nevada’s 4th District Race

No One Is Afraid of a Government Shutdown

The Battle for Orange County in the Fight for the House

Members Face Tough Odds in Races for Governor

I Interviewed 16 House Candidates in Two Days and Survived

Ten Thoughts after Democrats’ Big Wins in Virginia

Please Don’t Call It a Push Poll: Transgender Edition

Nine Thoughts After the Alabama Senate Runoff

LGBTQ Women Balance Opportunity, Possible Extinction in Congress

‘Scam PACs’ Strike Again in Utah, Wisconsin

PA-15 Rating Change: Dent Retirement Puts Seat in Play

The House Retirement Tide Is Coming

Merkley’s Mild Town Hall in a Red County

Alabama Senate: Potential for Moore Makes Seat Less Safe

When Congressional Spouses (Allegedly) Misbehave

A Bipartisan Health Care Bill Will Be Tougher to Pass than a Partisan One

Open Seat Gives Democrats a Takeover Opportunity in New Mexico

One Reason Why Republicans Don’t Have More Women in the Senate

2018 Senate Overview: The Map vs. Reality

2018 Senate Overview (July 7, 2017) Alabama – Maine

2018 Senate Overview (July 7, 2017) Maryland – Ohio

2018 Senate Overview (July 7, 2017) Oklahoma – Wyoming

Ratings Change: Illinois 12

GOP Campaign Tracker Violates Bipartisan Truce (Again)

House Battleground Breakdown: Diving Into Demographics

Democrats Look for First Signature Victory

Candidate Conversation – Ken Harbaugh (D)

Eleven Things I Think I Think After the Georgia and South Carolina Special Elections

Four (Almost) Famous Congressional Candidates

A Harbaugh Elected in Ohio? You’ll Know It’s a Wave

Georgia 6 Special: Down to the Wire

Introducing the Expanded Inside Elections Team

Minnesota House Races: Majority at Stake

Candidate Conversation – Jim Hagedorn (R)

2018 House Overview: Early Warning Signs for GOP

2018 House Overview (May 19, 2017) Alabama – Iowa

2018 House Overview (May 19, 2017) Kansas – New York

2018 House Overview (May 19, 2017) North Carolina – Wyoming

Lessons for Trump Detractors, Members of Congress From a Loyalty Expert

Alabama Senate Special: What a Short Strange Trip It’s Been

Florida 27: Taking Her Talents to Retirement

It’s OK to Wait Before Jumping to Conclusions

Candidate Conversation – Harley Rouda (D)

Don’t Trust Politicians Who Say They Aren’t Running for President

Florida 27: Ros-Lehtinen Retirement Creates Vulnerable GOP Open Seat

Why Republicans Don’t Fear a Shutdown, But Should

2017-18 Gubernatorial Overview: Victory Now, Redistricting Power Later

2017-18 Gubernatorial Overview (April 21, 2017) Alabama – Illinois

2017-18 Gubernatorial Overview (April 21, 2017) Iowa – New Mexico

2017-18 Gubernatorial Overview (April 21, 2017) New York – Wyoming

Parties Continue Special Election Slog

8 Things I Think I Think After the Georgia 6 Special Primary

The Bipartisan Effort to Make Senate History

11 Things I Think I Think After the Kansas 4 Special Election

2018 Senate Overview: Waiting for the New Normal

2018 Senate Overview (April 7, 2017) Alabama – Maine

2018 Senate Overview (April 7, 2017) Maryland – Ohio

2018 Senate Overview (April 7, 2017) Oklahama – Wyoming

Georgia 6 Special: Red Alert In Suburban District

Reason for Democratic Optimism, But Health Care Won’t be Enough

Texas 16: Yes, A Safe Democratic Seat in Texas

Kansas 4 Special: Not So Solid for Republicans

Candidate Conversation – Brad Little (R)

Georgia 6 Special: Club for Growth to Air TV Ad Against Handel

Minnesota 1: Walz’s Gov Run Creates Vulnerable Open Seat

What I Learned About Polling From a Georgia House Survey

Georgia 6 Special:Looking for a Fight

New Jersey Senate: Menendez Heading to Trial and Re-Election?

Montana At-Large Special: Land of Second Chances

Ohio 16: Renacci Leaves Seat Open to Run for Governor

Looking for Clues From a 2005 Special Election in Ohio

Wisconsin Senate: Baldwin’s Bid for Second Term

Illinois House: Democrats Eye Fresh Takeover Opportunities

Candidate Conversation – David Abroms (R)