Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema may not be a Democrat anymore, but she still has access to one of Democrats’ premier campaign tools: ActBlue. The online fundraising platform that has helped Democrats dominate the small-dollar money game for the past decade is still hosting the independent senator’s donation page. However, that may change as the election cycle progresses, and…
Slowly but surely, the U.S. Congress has begun to better reflect the nation. But even as the House and the Senate have gradually become more diverse, the rate at which that happens has appeared to decline. The number of women and nonwhite members in the 118th Congress has only marginally increased compared to the 117th, and this Congress…
After serving in the Senate for the past 22 years, Debbie Stabenow announced this morning that she won’t seek re-election in 2024. The race to succeed the Democratic senator is guaranteed to draw serious attention and resources from both parties. The Democratic Party has a deep bench in the Great Lakes State. Michigan Democrats swept in competitive races…
Democrats defied expectations by expanding their Senate majority in 2022 — but what exactly were those expectations? And Republicans nominated a number of underwhelming candidates, but how much did they actually underperform? Vote Above Replacement (VAR) can provide some empirical context to 2022 narratives. VAR measures the strength of a political candidate relative to a typical candidate from…
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s decision to leave the Democratic Party doesn’t have an immediate impact on Democrats’ control of the Senate — but it does complicate the 2024 battleground race in Arizona. Since the senator said she will not caucus with Republicans, her decision will not affect Democrats’ new majority. If she caucuses with Democrats (similar to Angus King…
With the 2022 midterm elections (almost) in the books, we can begin putting the results into the broader context of past results to see how much states and districts shifted. One of the best ways to identify shifts in partisanship is through our Baseline metric. Baseline captures a state or congressional district’s political performance by combining all federal…