Analysis

1217 Results

Report Shorts (February 3, 2023)

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Kyrsten Sinema Is Still on ActBlue — For Now

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema may not be a Democrat anymore, but she still has access to one of Democrats’ premier campaign tools: ActBlue. The online fundraising platform that has helped Democrats dominate the small-dollar money game for the past decade is still hosting the independent senator’s donation page. However, that may change as the election […]

Breaking Down the Demographics of the 118th Congress

Slowly but surely, the U.S. Congress has begun to better reflect the nation. But even as the House and the Senate have gradually become more diverse, the rate at which that happens has appeared to decline. The number of women and nonwhite members in the 118th Congress has only marginally increased compared to the 117th, […]

2024 Senate Overview: Majority on the Line, Again

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2024 Senate Overview (January 6, 2023) Arizona – Maine

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2024 Senate Overview (January 6, 2023): Pennsylvania – Wyoming

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Michigan Senate: The Race to Succeed Stabenow Is On

After serving in the Senate for the past 22 years, Debbie Stabenow announced this morning that she won’t seek re-election in 2024. The race to succeed the Democratic senator is guaranteed to draw serious attention and resources from both parties. The Democratic Party has a deep bench in the Great Lakes State. Michigan Democrats swept […]

Vote Above Replacement: 2022 Senate Elections

Democrats defied expectations by expanding their Senate majority in 2022 — but what exactly were those expectations? And Republicans nominated a number of underwhelming candidates, but how much did they actually underperform? Vote Above Replacement (VAR) can provide some empirical context to 2022 narratives. VAR measures the strength of a political candidate relative to a […]

Georgia Senate Runoff: How Warnock Won

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Arizona Senate: Sinema’s Decision Complicates 2024 Race

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s decision to leave the Democratic Party doesn’t have an immediate impact on Democrats’ control of the Senate — but it does complicate the 2024 battleground race in Arizona. Since the senator said she will not caucus with Republicans, her decision will not affect Democrats’ new majority. If she caucuses with Democrats (similar […]