Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Florida
President

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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No Rating

2025 Baseline

What's This?
R +10.3
D: 44.5%, R: 54.8%
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Florida passed a new congressional map designed to help Republicans pick up as many as four additional seats in the fall.
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2026 Election

Incumbents

  • Vacant

Candidates

Unopposed

Past Elections

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Calendar

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APR
24
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
AUG
18
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Trump’s Surprising Gains with Minority Voters

November 19, 2020
by Ryan Matsumoto

Presidential Snapshot in Time (October 30, 2020)

October 30, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Presidential Snapshot in Time (October 2, 2020)

October 2, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

TV Ads Shape Presidential Battleground

July 20, 2020
by Steve Passwaiter

Electoral College Outlook: Biden Has the Edge

July 17, 2020
by Nathan Gonzales

Presidential Snapshot in Time: July 10, 2020

July 10, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Presidential Snapshot in Time (June 26, 2020)

June 26, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Presidential Snapshot in Time (June 12, 2020)

June 12, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Presidential Snapshot in Time (May 29, 2020)

May 29, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Presidential Snapshot in Time (May 1, 2020)

May 1, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Ratings

2024
April 26, 2023
Lean Republican
2020
July 17, 2020
Tilt Democrat
July 17, 2020
Tilt Democrat
March 8, 2019
Toss-up
March 8, 2019
Toss-up
2016
October 21, 2016
Tilt Democrat
October 21, 2016
Tilt Democrat
September 16, 2016
Toss-up
September 16, 2016
Toss-up
May 19, 2016
Tilt Democrat
May 19, 2016
Tilt Democrat
March 6, 2015
Toss-up
2012
March 9, 2012
Toss-up
March 9, 2012
Toss-up
February 24, 2012
Solid Democrat
February 24, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 27, 2012
Lean Democrat
January 27, 2012
Toss-up
January 27, 2012
Toss-up
December 16, 2011
Lean Democrat
December 16, 2011
Lean Republican
December 2, 2011
Lean Republican

Baselines

About
2025+10.3D 44.5, R 54.8
2024
+10.3
2022
+8.8
2020
+5.6
2018
+4.5
2016
+8.9
2014
+8.6