Category Archive: States

Wave or No Wave, House Landscape Favors Republicans

Senate Races Shift to Higher Gear

Gubernatorial Report Shorts (August 15, 2014)

Walsh Drops Out, Montana Senate Moves to Republican Favored

President George W. Obama Meets the Midterms

2014 Gubernatorial Overview (August 1, 2014) Alabama – Illinois

2014 Gubernatorial Overview (August 1, 2014) Iowa – New Mexico

2014 Gubernatorial Overview (August 1, 2014) New York – Wyoming

So You Want to Be a Political Handicapper? 2014 Edition

Chuck Schumer’s Dream: A Democratic Nightmare

Montana Senate Moves to Lean Republican

Montana Senate: A Real Race or Simply Manufactured Buzz?

‘Simple’ Doesn’t Equal ‘Easy’ in N.H. Senate Race

GOP Can’t Catch a Break in Congressional Baseball Recruitment

‘Would You Rather?’ House Race Edition

2014 House Overview (July 18, 2014) Alabama – Indiana

2014 House Overview (July 18, 2014) Iowa – Oklahoma

2014 House Overview (July 18, 2014) Oregon – Wyoming

Imperfect People Get Elected to the Senate

Fight for the Senate Still Very Much Up in the Air

Minnesota Senate: Still Very Unlikely, But Not Impossible

New Jersey 3: So Close, Yet So Far Away

Arizona 7: The Name Game

House Report Shorts (July 8, 2014)

Gubernatorial Report Shorts (July 8, 2014)

Senate Report Shorts (July 8, 2014)

How Parties Communicate Without Coordinating

Senate GOP Bets on Jeff Larson to Help Ride to Majority in 2014

Senate Long Shots Find Success Down the Ballot

Minnesota 8: Rumble on the Range

Virginia 10: The Party That Cried Wolf

Report Shorts (June 20, 2014) SC Senate, Maine 2, Mississippi Senate, Virginia 7

Mark Pryor: Still This Cycle’s Most Vulnerable Senator

Michelle Obama for Senate in 2016: Is It Even a Rumor?

How and Why are Two Separate Questions in Cantor Loss

2014 Senate Overview (June 6, 2014) Alabama – Kansas

2014 Senate Overview (June 6, 2014) Kentucky – New Mexico

2014 Senate Overview (June 6, 2014) North Carolina – Wyoming

Why Do We Suddenly Care About Races for Lt. Governor?

California 25: Another District Falls Off the List of Competitive Races

Thad Cochran’s Mississippi

Oregon Senate: National Republicans Get Their Nominee for Potential Race

West Virginia 2: Don’t Count Out the Republican From Maryland

South Carolina Senate: Lindsey Graham is Not Safe, Yet

Senate Report Shorts (May 28, 2014) Arkansas, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Nebraska

House Report Shorts (May 28, 2014) Georgia, Idaho, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Texas

Gubernatorial Report Shorts (May 28, 2014) Georgia, Nebraska, Oregon, Pennsylvania

Can an Endorsement Hurt the Endorsed Candidate?

The Long Lost Tale of Phil Maloof

Ben Sasse, Mystery Man

Democrats Wield Abortion Rights as Campaign Weapon in Primaries, Too

The Most Influential Losing Congressional Candidate in the Country

Democrats Won’t Have a Candidate in Competitive Florida District, Race moves to Safe

Michigan: Midwest Melee

Maine 2: Out in the Open

Report Shorts (May 9, 2014) Georgia Governor, Hawaii Governor, North Carolina Senate, and more

Now that GOP Primary is Over, North Carolina Senate Moves to Pure Toss-Up

And the Winner of the GOP’s Civil War Primary Is …

Beware of the Surprise House Primary Losers

Democrats Pin Hopes on New Candidate, Unconventional Process in Florida’s 13th District

Warning: Senate Races Aren’t as Close as They Appear

When Birth Certificates and Senate Races Clash

Rating New York’s 11th District and One of My Worst Mistakes as a Political Handicapper

North Carolina: Primary Purpose

Wisconsin 6: Open Seat B’gosh

Arkansas Senate: Shooting Down Strawmen

Charleston Gazette Endorsements Need a Little Perspective

Colorado Senate: Mark Udall Still Favored

Sebelius to the Senate? Maybe in the Land of Oz, But Not in Kansas

Democratic Senate Prospects and the New Black Voter

2014 House Overview (April 11, 2014) Alabama – Indiana

2014 House Overview (April 11, 2014) Iowa – Oklahoma

2014 House Overview (April 11, 2014) Oregon – Wyoming

Meet 3 Divergent House Candidates Worth Watching

GOP Congressman Skips Incumbent Label on California Ballot

Mississippi Senator Thad Cochran, Underdog?

Nebraska Senate: Peak Timing

West Virginia 3: The Ties That Bind

Ohio 6: There Goes the Neighborhood

Rogers’ Retirement Makes Michigan 8 More Competitive

Memo to Democrats: Running Toward Barack Obama Might Work

Colorado Senate Race Firmly on Senate Battlefield

Another Cycle, Another Poll Memo About Florida’s 2nd District

2014 Senate Overview (March 14, 2014) Alabama – Kansas

2014 Senate Overview (March 14, 2014) Kentucky – New Mexico

2014 Senate Overview (March 14, 2014) North Carolina – Wyoming

Jolly Wins Special, Florida’s 13th Starts as Lean Republican for Midterm

Why Florida’s 13th District Special Election Is Still a Tossup

Bill Clinton’s Real Impact on the Kentucky Senate Race

Democrats Have Primaries, Too

Why Ken Buck Has the Inside Track in Colorado’s 4th District

Oregon Senate: Testing the Democratic Firewall

Michigan Senate: Evolving GOP Opportunity

Illinois Primaries: GOP Races Set Stage for November

Report Shorts (February 28, 2014) Colorado Senate, Michigan 12, Texas 33

Gardner Decision Shakes Up Colorado Senate Race

Obamacare Can Be Complicated for Republicans Beyond the Beltway

Please Don’t Call It an Exodus From Congress

New York 21: Have We Seen This Movie Before?

Texas Primaries: House, Not the Senate, is the Place to Watch

Senate Poll Analysis is More than the “Leading” Candidate

Report Shorts (February 14, 2013) California 31, New Jersey 1, Washington 4

How Candidates Share Without Coordinating With Outside Groups

North Carolina 2: Clay Aiken In, Seat Still Safe GOP for Now

California House Districts: Still Adjusting to New Landscape

Kansas Senate: The Electorate That Cried Wolf

Kansas Governor: What’s the Matter with Brownback?

Kansas 2 & 4: Primary Motivation

Report Shorts (January 31, 2014) – Florida 13, Idaho 1, Montana At-Large, Oklahoma Senate

2 Seats, 1 State, Zero Opportunities

The Real Reasons Recruits Don’t Run

Garcia is GOP Rising Star, But is She Going Too High Too Soon?

2014 House Overview (January 17, 2014) Alabama – Indiana

2014 House Overview (January 17, 2014) Iowa – Oklahoma

2014 House Overview (January 17, 2014) Oregon – Wyoming

Virginia Senate: Gillespie’s Entry Gives Republicans a Chance

California 25: Open Seat Gets More Competitive

New York 21: Owens Retirement Moves Seat to Toss-Up

The Race Democrats Can’t Afford to Lose

Pay No Attention to That Title of Speaker in Front of My Name

New York 4: Remains Safe for Democrats for Now

North Carolina 7: Democratic Seat Moves from Toss-Up to Safe Republican

Gerlach to Retire, Pennsylvania’s 6th Moves from Safe to Lean Republican

What the Latest Iowa Poll Reveals About 2016 (Hint: Not Much)

The Democratic Escape Plan: How to Hold a Vulnerable Senate Seat

2014 Senate Overview (December 18, 2013) Alabama – Kansas

2014 Senate Overview (December 18, 2013) Kentucky – New Mexico

2014 Senate Overview (December 18, 2013) North Carolina – Wyoming

Is Arkansas Really the Land of Opportunity for Democrats?

Open 3rd District Gives Democrats Opportunity in Iowa

Matheson’s Retirement Moves Utah’s 4th District to Safe for Republicans

Wolf’s Retirement Moves Virginia’s 10th District from Safe to Lean Republican

Louisiana Ad Could Preview 2014 Democratic Playbook

The $4 Billion Campaign Against John Cornyn

If Linda Lingle Could, Why Can’t Wendy Davis?

Florida 13 Special: Democrats Throw Sink at Young’s Open Seat

Arizona 1: Kirkpatrick Shoots for Re-elect, Not Repeat

RPR Report Shorts (Florida 19, Louisiana 5, New York 24, West Virginia 2)

Republicans at Risk of Losing West Virginia’s 2nd District

The Most Divided House District in New York

23 of 25 Vulnerable Democrats Vote in Favor of Upton Bill

Why Most Postmortems of Virginia’s Gubernatorial Race Are Wrong

For Some Candidates, Home Is Where the Opportunity Is

Michigan Senate: Open Season

Nebraska 2: Mr. Terry’s Wild Ride

RPR Report Shorts (New Jersey 3, Alabama 1, North Carolina 6)

Victory Is in the Eye of the Beholder in New Jersey, Virginia and Alabama

New Jersey’s 3rd District Now Open, Now a Tossup

Two House Candidates Who Stumbled Over Simple Questions

In Louisiana, Democrats Doth Protest Too Much

6 Democratic House Candidates With Plenty of Potential

2014 Gubernatorial Overview (October 25, 2013) Alabama – Illinois

2014 Gubernatorial Overview (October 25, 2013) Iowa – New Mexico

2014 Gubernatorial Overview (October 25, 2013) New York – Wyoming

New Jersey Governor: Christie Completes Next Chapter in Longer Book

Virginia Governor: McAuliffe Set to Win Race to the Bottom

The Most Important Election of 2014

Democrats Look for Mini-Wave in Arkansas in 2014

From Family Tragedy to Congress Is a Difficult Trail

New Hampshire 1 & 2: Congressional Carousel

Massachusetts 5: Clark Wins Critical Democratic Primary

Florida 13: Democrats Finally Get an Opportunity

Is Ted Cruz Causing a Democratic Wave?

Florida 13: Young’s Retirement Creates More Competitive Contest

Marriage Equality and New York’s 19th District

Republican Senate Hopefuls Vary in Quality, Approach

Tennant Not a Game Changer Yet for West Virginia Democrats

2014 House Overview (September 27, 2013) Alabama – Indiana

2014 House Overview (September 27, 2013) Iowa – Oklahoma

2014 House Overview (September 27, 2013) Oregon – Wyoming

Republicans Win Belated Legal Battles, but Elections Can’t Be Undone

Family Politics: When Water Is Thicker Than Blood

House Strategists Continue Search for 2014 Candidates

Democrats Ready to Land Recruit in Elusive California District

Is South Carolina’s Nikki Haley in Trouble?

In TX, Latinos pass on opportunity to win congressional seat

Is Dan Benishek Waffling on Term Limits?

And for John Kasich’s Next Act in Politics …

Michigan 1: Benishek, Done That

Idaho 2: Primary Problems

Virginia Governor: Moves from Toss-Up to Lean Democrat

Florida’s 2nd District: When You Don’t Need to Poll

3 Local Races That Could Affect the Fight for the House

North Carolina Senate: Blue Like Hagan

Alabama 1 Special: Republican Tide Rolls On

Louisiana 5 Special: Republican Dynasty

Illinois Governor: Madigan’s Decision Decreases Democratic Chances

2014 Senate Overview (August 9, 2013) Alabama – Kansas

2014 Senate Overview (August 9, 2013) Kentucky – New Mexico

2014 Senate Overview (August 9, 2013) North Carolina – Wyoming

Challenger Takes Issue With Congressman’s ‘Brown People’ Comment

Ohio’s 6th District Moves from Safe to GOP Favored

Incumbent Primary Challengers: Some Promising, Others Premature

When 94 Percent Isn’t Pure Enough for Conservative Republicans

Georgia Senate: Maybe, Potentially, Possibly … but Not Yet

Former GOP House Candidate Marries Gay Partner

Massachusetts 5: Republicans Need Not Apply

California 45: The Battle for Orange County

New Jersey Senate: Over Before It Began?

Maine Senate: Collins Moves to Safe