Category Archive: Contributors

A National Election or a Localized One?

Putting House Expectations Into Context

Democratic Hopes Shine Brighter in Gubernatorial Races

The Best Ads of 2014 – Oh Really?

Senate Ratings vs. Senate Expecations

Republicans Use Birth Control as Campaign Wedge

House Candidate May Have Faulty Disclaimer in Campaign Ad

Pat Roberts is the Most Vulnerable Republican Senator in the Country

Numbers Game Still Favors GOP Senate Majority

2014 Senate Overview (August 29, 2014) Alabama – Kansas

2014 Senate Overview (August 29, 2014) Kentucky – New Mexico

And the Winner of the GOP’s Civil War Primary Is…Part II

Not Your Typical Southern Democrat in South Carolina

Wave or No Wave, House Landscape Favors Republicans

Senate Races Shift to Higher Gear

Gubernatorial Report Shorts (August 15, 2014)

Self-Fulfilling Prophecy Might Be Why Americans Hate Congress

Democratic Retirements Put the Senate in Play

Inside House Democrats’ Expanding Ground Game

Walsh Drops Out, Montana Senate Moves to Republican Favored

New Poll Numbers Reinforce Bush-Obama Comparisons

President George W. Obama Meets the Midterms

Instead of Waves, Dems Looking to Make a Splash in Big Gubernatorial Races

2014 Gubernatorial Overview (August 1, 2014) Alabama – Illinois

2014 Gubernatorial Overview (August 1, 2014) Iowa – New Mexico

2014 Gubernatorial Overview (August 1, 2014) New York – Wyoming

So You Want to Be a Political Handicapper? 2014 Edition

Chuck Schumer’s Dream: A Democratic Nightmare

Montana Senate Moves to Lean Republican

Montana Senate: A Real Race or Simply Manufactured Buzz?

‘Simple’ Doesn’t Equal ‘Easy’ in N.H. Senate Race

GOP Can’t Catch a Break in Congressional Baseball Recruitment

‘Would You Rather?’ House Race Edition

Fight for the House About 2016, not 2014

2014 House Overview (July 18, 2014) Alabama – Indiana

Imperfect People Get Elected to the Senate

Fight for the Senate Still Very Much Up in the Air

Minnesota Senate: Still Very Unlikely, But Not Impossible

Could Upbeat Economic News Help Obama, Democrats?

New Jersey 3: So Close, Yet So Far Away

Arizona 7: The Name Game

House Report Shorts (July 8, 2014)

Gubernatorial Report Shorts (July 8, 2014)

Senate Report Shorts (July 8, 2014)

Why Democrats and Republicans Can’t Be Friends

How Parties Communicate Without Coordinating

Senate GOP Bets on Jeff Larson to Help Ride to Majority in 2014

Why Is the Media Ignoring Hillary Clinton?

Senate Long Shots Find Success Down the Ballot

Beware ‘Anti-Incumbent’ Election Hysteria

Minnesota 8: Rumble on the Range

Virginia 10: The Party That Cried Wolf

Report Shorts (June 20, 2014) SC Senate, Maine 2, Mississippi Senate, Virginia 7

In Campaign Ads, ‘Week One’ Is Still Months Away

Mark Pryor: Still This Cycle’s Most Vulnerable Senator

Michelle Obama for Senate in 2016: Is It Even a Rumor?

Obama’s New Nuance on His Student Loans

How and Why are Two Separate Questions in Cantor Loss

Senate Majority Still Hangs in the Balance

2014 Senate Overview (June 6, 2014) Alabama – Kansas

2014 Senate Overview (June 6, 2014) Kentucky – New Mexico

2014 Senate Overview (June 6, 2014) North Carolina – Wyoming

Why Do We Suddenly Care About Races for Lt. Governor?

California 25: Another District Falls Off the List of Competitive Races

Thad Cochran’s Mississippi

Oregon Senate: National Republicans Get Their Nominee for Potential Race

West Virginia 2: Don’t Count Out the Republican From Maryland

2016 Presidential: Why Hillary Clinton is More Inevitable Than Last Time

South Carolina Senate: Lindsey Graham is Not Safe, Yet

Senate Report Shorts (May 28, 2014) Arkansas, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Nebraska

House Report Shorts (May 28, 2014) Georgia, Idaho, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Texas

Gubernatorial Report Shorts (May 28, 2014) Georgia, Nebraska, Oregon, Pennsylvania

Can an Endorsement Hurt the Endorsed Candidate?

The Long Lost Tale of Phil Maloof

Ben Sasse, Mystery Man

Democrats Wield Abortion Rights as Campaign Weapon in Primaries, Too

The New World of Election Coverage and Analysis: A Case Study

The Most Influential Losing Congressional Candidate in the Country

Democrats Won’t Have a Candidate in Competitive Florida District, Race moves to Safe

Michigan: Midwest Melee

Maine 2: Out in the Open

Report Shorts (May 9, 2014) Georgia Governor, Hawaii Governor, North Carolina Senate, and more

Why This Year’s Primaries Won’t End GOP Civil War

Now that GOP Primary is Over, North Carolina Senate Moves to Pure Toss-Up

And the Winner of the GOP’s Civil War Primary Is …

Beware of the Surprise House Primary Losers

Democrats Pin Hopes on New Candidate, Unconventional Process in Florida’s 13th District

How to Ruin Your Interview With Stu Rothenberg

Warning: Senate Races Aren’t as Close as They Appear

When Birth Certificates and Senate Races Clash

Rating New York’s 11th District and One of My Worst Mistakes as a Political Handicapper

North Carolina: Primary Purpose

Wisconsin 6: Open Seat B’gosh

Arkansas Senate: Shooting Down Strawmen

Charleston Gazette Endorsements Need a Little Perspective

Obama’s Foreign Policy Impacts 2014 Elections — Really

Colorado Senate: Mark Udall Still Favored

Sebelius to the Senate? Maybe in the Land of Oz, But Not in Kansas

How to Handicap a Campaign’s Ground Game in 2014

Democratic Senate Prospects and the New Black Voter

Republicans to Maintain, and Potentially Grow, House Majority

2014 House Overview (April 11, 2014) Alabama – Indiana

2014 House Overview (April 11, 2014) Iowa – Oklahoma

2014 House Overview (April 11, 2014) Oregon – Wyoming

Meet 3 Divergent House Candidates Worth Watching

GOP Congressman Skips Incumbent Label on California Ballot

Why Republicans Have Trouble Electing Women to Congress

Mississippi Senator Thad Cochran, Underdog?

Nebraska Senate: Peak Timing

West Virginia 3: The Ties That Bind

Ohio 6: There Goes the Neighborhood

Rogers’ Retirement Makes Michigan 8 More Competitive

Democrats’ Growing Problems With Independent Voters on the Senate Map

Memo to Democrats: Running Toward Barack Obama Might Work

Colorado Senate Race Firmly on Senate Battlefield

Another Cycle, Another Poll Memo About Florida’s 2nd District

Road Gets Tougher for Democratic Majority in the Senate

2014 Senate Overview (March 14, 2014) Alabama – Kansas

2014 Senate Overview (March 14, 2014) Kentucky – New Mexico

2014 Senate Overview (March 14, 2014) North Carolina – Wyoming

Jolly Wins Special, Florida’s 13th Starts as Lean Republican for Midterm

Why Polls Still Show Democrats With Higher Marks Than Republicans

Why Florida’s 13th District Special Election Is Still a Tossup

Bill Clinton’s Real Impact on the Kentucky Senate Race

Why Republican Candidates Will Run From .GOP Address

Democrats Have Primaries, Too

Why Ken Buck Has the Inside Track in Colorado’s 4th District

Oregon Senate: Testing the Democratic Firewall

Michigan Senate: Evolving GOP Opportunity

Illinois Primaries: GOP Races Set Stage for November

Report Shorts (February 28, 2014) Colorado Senate, Michigan 12, Texas 33

There’s No Good Time for the GOP on Immigration

Gardner Decision Shakes Up Colorado Senate Race

Obamacare Can Be Complicated for Republicans Beyond the Beltway

How Jamestown Associates Adapted and Prospered

Please Don’t Call It an Exodus From Congress

New York 21: Have We Seen This Movie Before?

Texas Primaries: House, Not the Senate, is the Place to Watch

Senate Poll Analysis is More than the “Leading” Candidate

Report Shorts (February 14, 2013) California 31, New Jersey 1, Washington 4

DCCC Is 2013 Fundraising Winner, but DNC Drops the Ball

How Candidates Share Without Coordinating With Outside Groups

North Carolina 2: Clay Aiken In, Seat Still Safe GOP for Now

For Democrats, It’s All About (Years) After November

California House Districts: Still Adjusting to New Landscape

Kansas Senate: The Electorate That Cried Wolf

Kansas Governor: What’s the Matter with Brownback?

Kansas 2 & 4: Primary Motivation

Report Shorts (January 31, 2014) – Florida 13, Idaho 1, Montana At-Large, Oklahoma Senate

Income Inequality: Democrats Have Some Work to Do

2 Seats, 1 State, Zero Opportunities

You Can’t Make This Stuff Up — and It’s Only January

The Real Reasons Recruits Don’t Run

Garcia is GOP Rising Star, But is She Going Too High Too Soon?

To Special-Election Victors, a Short Stay in Congress

Minimal Change in the House

2014 House Overview (January 17, 2014) Alabama – Indiana

2014 House Overview (January 17, 2014) Iowa – Oklahoma

2014 House Overview (January 17, 2014) Oregon – Wyoming

Virginia Senate: Gillespie’s Entry Gives Republicans a Chance

California 25: Open Seat Gets More Competitive

Rothenberg’s Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats

New York 21: Owens Retirement Moves Seat to Toss-Up

The Race Democrats Can’t Afford to Lose

Pay No Attention to That Title of Speaker in Front of My Name

Oldest and Youngest Congressional Candidates of the Cycle

New York 4: Remains Safe for Democrats for Now

North Carolina 7: Democratic Seat Moves from Toss-Up to Safe Republican

Early TV Ads: Not New and Mostly a Waste of Money

Gerlach to Retire, Pennsylvania’s 6th Moves from Safe to Lean Republican

All GOP Primaries Are Not Created Equal

Republicans and Democrats Exchange Gifts this Holiday Season

What the Latest Iowa Poll Reveals About 2016 (Hint: Not Much)

How the Calendar Could Influence GOP Senate Primaries

The Democratic Escape Plan: How to Hold a Vulnerable Senate Seat

A Whole New Ballgame in the Senate

2014 Senate Overview (December 18, 2013) Alabama – Kansas

2014 Senate Overview (December 18, 2013) Kentucky – New Mexico

2014 Senate Overview (December 18, 2013) North Carolina – Wyoming

Is Arkansas Really the Land of Opportunity for Democrats?

Open 3rd District Gives Democrats Opportunity in Iowa

Matheson’s Retirement Moves Utah’s 4th District to Safe for Republicans

Wolf’s Retirement Moves Virginia’s 10th District from Safe to Lean Republican

One Reason Donald Trump Should Be President

Louisiana Ad Could Preview 2014 Democratic Playbook

Awards for the Best and Worst of Politics in 2013

What Happened to the Campaign for Primary Accountability?

The $4 Billion Campaign Against John Cornyn

House Democrats’ Not-So-Secret Weapon for 2014: Cash

A Traditional Midterm Headache for Democrats

If Linda Lingle Could, Why Can’t Wendy Davis?

Open Your Mind to the Possibility of Another Midterm Mess for Democrats

Florida 13 Special: Democrats Throw Sink at Young’s Open Seat

Arizona 1: Kirkpatrick Shoots for Re-elect, Not Repeat

RPR Report Shorts (Florida 19, Louisiana 5, New York 24, West Virginia 2)

Republicans at Risk of Losing West Virginia’s 2nd District

The Most Divided House District in New York

23 of 25 Vulnerable Democrats Vote in Favor of Upton Bill

A Critical Few Weeks for Democrats? It Could Get Worse

Why Most Postmortems of Virginia’s Gubernatorial Race Are Wrong