Category Archive: Contributors

Why House Democrats Need Trump to be President

Clinton Starts with a Decisive Advantage

Why California Members Embrace Incumbent Ballot Designation

Donald Trump is the GOP Nominee. Now What?

How Trump Gives Republicans a Chance to Hold Senate

Colorado Senate: Republicans Struggle to Keep Bennet in Play

Illinois Senate: Kirk Downgraded to Lean Democratic

Fresh Primary Results, Six Fresh Faces for Next Congress

Candidate Conversation – Claudia Tenney (R)

Candidate Conversation – Joe McDermott (D)

Candidate Conversation – Kathy Szeliga (R)

Senate Report Shorts (May 5, 2016) Indiana, Kansas, Maryland, Pennsylvania

Ryan Rides to the Rescue — But Not Until 2020

16 House Districts That Will Make (or Break) Democratic Majority

NRCC Reserves Ad Time for Vulnerable Members

GOP’s Troubles Just Beginning

Opposition Research Comes Out of the Shadows

House Overview: Playing Field Could Shift Rather than Expand

2016 House Overview (April 22, 2016) Alabama – Illinois

2016 House Overview (April 22, 2106) Indiana – New Jersey

2016 House Overview (April 22, 2016) New Mexico – Wyoming

Candidate Conversation – Randy Perkins (D)

How Many Might Defect from Trump or Cruz?

New Poll, New TV Ads in Indiana House Race

Democrats Likely to Bank Trio of GOP House Seats

Democrats Are Headed off Their Own Cliff

Kentucky 1: Comer’s Comeback

Indiana Primaries Enter the Home Stretch

Georgia 3: Potential New Member Threatens to Shoot Police

Faces of the 115th Congress: Raja Krishnamoorthi

Ratings Change: Virginia’s 2nd District

Ratings Change: Wisconsin’s 8th District

Candidate Conversation: Conner Eldridge (D)

Candidate Conversation: Juan “Sonny” Palacios, Jr. (D)

This 2014 House Race May Have Predicted Trump’s Success

The Beginning of the End for Donald Trump

Maybe It Really Is the Media’s Fault

‘14 Losers Looking for Second Chance in ‘16

A Party Divided Is a Party Defeated—Usually

Rush Wins Primary, Other Black Caucus Members Also Face Challenges

GOP Incumbents Brace for Primary Losses, But Survive So Far

The Dust Clears: Hillary vs. Trump or Cruz

Is an Anti-Trump Wave Putting the House Into Play?

Senate Matchups Start to Solidify, But Landscape Unclear

Few Surprises (and One Likely New Member) In Early House Primary Results

Illinois 15: Shimkus Escapes Primary Challenge With Decisive Victory in Downstate District

Candidate Conversation: Geraldine Thompson (D)

Candidate Conversation: Monica Vernon (D)

Candidate Conversation: Angie Craig (DFL)

Candidate Conversation: Mark Hunt (D)

John Kasich’s Utterly Strange, Bizarre Campaign

Millennials Raising Money to Run, But Can They Win?

Outsider Candidate Claims Boehner Seat in Ohio Special

Trump’s Electoral Math Doesn’t Add Up

Democratic Senate Takeover Probable, If Cruz or Trump Nominee

6 Districts Where the Fight for the House and President Converge

2016 Senate Overview: Trump Looms Over Fight for the Majority

2016 Senate Overview (March 4, 2016) Alabama – Kansas

2016 Senate Overview (March 4, 2016) Kentucky – New Mexico

2016 Senate overview (March 4, 2016) New York – Wyoming

Four Early Lessons From the Presidential Race

The Case for a Crowded Field to Defeat Trump

Cruz and Kasich Implausible Scenarios Keeping Trump on Top

Trump Is More Vulnerable Than You Think

Obama Learns What You Sow in the Senate, You Reap in the White House

Don’t Call it a Push Poll: Bernie Sanders Campaign Edition

Scalia’s Death and the Fight for the Senate

Money Can’t Buy Love in GOP Presidential Primary

Minnesota 2: Democrats Try to Flip a District, Again

Josh Mandel, Running for the Senate in Ohio…Again?

Report Shorts (February 19, 2016) California Senate, Indiana Senate, Maine’s 2nd, North Carolina,

Who Will Win South Carolina Saturday? Just Look at the Voters

Michael Bloomberg’s Road Map to the White House

Trying to Make Sense of the Post-New Hampshire Republican Race

Voters Don’t Fit Neatly Into Presidential Primary Lanes

Can Rubio Follow Romney’s Path to the Nomination?

What Happened to Jeb Bush?

Why Was Fiorina Denied Ad Time During the Debate?

Wisconsin Senate: Argument over Assumptions

Why Haven’t We Updated Our Presidential Ratings?

Indiana Governor: How Vulnerable is Mike Pence?

Wisconsin 8: Ribble Retirement Creates Vulnerable GOP Open Seat

Tennessee 8: Fincher’s Decision Brings Congress to Historical Average Number of Retirements

Report Shorts (February 5, 2016) California, Kentucky, Maryland, North Carolina, Tennessee

Revenge of the Old Fogies

Handicapping the GOP Race Past Iowa

It’s Official: Put a Fork in Kasich’s Candidacy

Hillary and Jeb: Destined to Play the Long Game?

NRSC Names Huey IE Director

House Overview: No Guts, No Glory for Democrats

2016 House Overview (January 25, 2016) Alabama – Illinois

2016 House Overview (January 25, 2016) Indiana – New Jersey

2016 House Overview (January 25, 2016) New Mexico – Wyoming

Goldwater vs. McGovern in 2016?

Beshear Looks Back, Forward on Kentucky’s Political Landscape

NRCC Names Furst Johnson IE Director

Virginia 2: Rigell Retirement Shifts Seat Out of Safe for GOP

Can Rubio Win Even If He Loses?

Obama’s Empty Campaign Threat on Gun Control

Ohio 8: The Quiet Fight to Succeed Boehner

New York 22: Hanna Departure Leaves Vulnerable Seat

Presidential Battleground Spotlight: North Carolina

New York 3: Israel Retirement Sets Up GOP Takeover Opportunity

Report Shorts (January 8, 2016) Alabama, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania

Predicting the Future and Other Delusions

Ted Cruz Might Not Need Trump Supporters

Steve Israel Retirement Sets Up GOP Takeover Opportunity

Will ‘Electability’ Sink Trump?

Indiana Senate: Is Stutzman Still the Club for Growth’s Guy?

Virginia 5: Hurt to Retire, Leaves Potentially Competitive Seat

New York 22: Hanna Retirement Puts Seat At Risk for Republicans

Why House Races Still Matter (Even in Safe Districts)

Colorado Senate: Republicans Waiting for Challenger To Emerge

Pennsylvania House: Democrats Searching for Key Contenders

Presidential Battleground Spotlight: New Hampshire

And the GOP Nominee Will Be…

Stu in Review: Dumb Stuff I Wrote This Year

GOP’s Brand In More Trouble Than Its Candidates

Republicans Need More Than More Hispanic Voters to Win White House

An Independent Candidacy Would Make Trump the Biggest Loser

What Does It Take To Crack the Inner Circle of Political Consultants?

Rothenberg’s End of the Year Awards

4 Court Cases That Could Impact the 2016 Elections

Louisiana Senate: In the Wake of David Vitter

Presidential Battleground Spotlight: Wisconsin

Illinois House: Filing Deadline Passes, Along with Two Democratic Takeover Opportunities

Florida House: New Lines Change Outlook in 5 Races

Report Shorts (December 4, 2015) California Senate, Florida Senate, Maryland Senate

Who Is the Second Most Vulnerable Senate Incumbent in 2016?

Obama Still Channeling George W. Bush

Time to Stop Reporting on Committee Fundraising Numbers

Speaking Style Says Volumes About GOP Race

Imperfect Candidates Get Elected

New Hampshire Senate: Clash of the Titans

Presidential Battleground Spotlight: Virginia

Report Shorts (November 20, 2015) Arizona 1, Arkansas, Kentucky Senate, New York 22

Paris Attacks Will Keep Obama and Democrats Playing Defense

Don’t Get Too Caught Up in the Trump and Carson ‘Panic’

House Retirement Rush Still Short of Average

Outsider Bevin Hires Insider Chief of Staff

EMILY’s List Support Isn’t Early Enough for Senate Hopeful

Hillary Clinton and the Two-Term Jinx

Is Vitter on the Verge of Losing Everything?

Why Trump Would Get Out of the Race

2016 Senate Overview: Playing Field Comes Into Focus, But Climate is Unclear

2016 Senate Overview (November 6, 2015) Alabama – Kansas

2016 Senate Overview (November 6, 2015) Kentucky – New Mexico

2016 Senate Overview (November 6, 2015) New York – Wyoming

Cory Gardner for Veep? Don’t Laugh

What Does Bevin’s Victory in Kentucky Mean for Vitter’s Chances?

Fiorina Has No Clear Lane to GOP Nomination

Don’t Blame Gerrymandering for GOP Civil War

Cruz and Jindal Wait Impatiently for Their Chances

Why the Next Month Is Critical for Bush

Vitter’s Primary Performance Prompts Rating Change in Louisiana

Pelosi Sees a Wave; Strategists Say it’s Just a Ripple Now

What the Heck Happened to Rand Paul?

John Boehner Shouldn’t Pack His Bags Just Yet

Ryan Is Damned if He Does, and Damned if He Doesn’t

Democrats Divided in Fight for Maryland Senate Seat

Democrats Battle for Open House Seats in Maryland

Presidential Battleground Spotlight: Colorado

Report Shorts (October 16, 2015)

Why Republicans Need to Nominate Ted Cruz

Why I Keep Forgetting About John Kasich

Early Iowa Presidential Polls a Better Predictor Than National Ones

Draft Biden Organizer Dismissed Over Past Legal Problems

State Senator Prepares GOP Primary Challenge to Shimkus

Hassan’s Decision Changes Outlook in Two New Hampshire Races

Boehner’s Exit Leaves House Republicans With Challenging Next Chapter

Presidential Battleground Spotlight: Ohio

House Democrats Desperate to Make up Ground in New York

Report Shorts (October 1, 2015)

Does Voter Anger Explain the Success of Presidential Outsiders?

Young, Ambitious and Wealthy Isn’t Enough in Arkansas

Indiana Reps Still Wrestling With Residency

Florida Senate: Too Big to Fail

Presidential Battleground Spotlight: Florida

Report Shorts (September 18, 2015)

Post-CNN Debate Thoughts

And the News Gets Worse for Clinton

No Rating Change After Benishek’s Retirement in Michigan

More House Retirements Likely to Come

A Significant Reassessment of the GOP Race

Wisconsin Senate: Badger State Battle, Part 2

Colorado 6: Can Carroll Cause Coffman to Stumble?

Report Shorts (Minnesota 2, North Dakota Governor Senate, Washington 8 Governor

Reichert Seriously Considering Washington Governor’s Race

Louisiana Governor: Does David Vitter Have Something to Worry About?

Parties Play Politics With FEC Complaints

Campaign Committees Open Holes While Filling Others

Missing the Boat on the Big Political News

Crist, Culver Contemplate Humbling Transition to the House

Donald Trump and the Fight for the Senate

Indiana 3: Home is Where the Heart Is

2015-16 Gubernatorial Overview: Parties Brace for Bigger Battles Ahead

Report Shorts (August 21, 2015) Florida 5, Illinois 15, Texas 16, Iowa 1 & 4

Group Suggests ‘Schock Waves’ in Illinois Special Election

A Modest Proposal: Timeshare Congressional Districts

Stop the Presses: O’Malley Nabs Swalwell Endorsement