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Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980
Category Archive: Contributors
House: Money Isn’t Enough to Save Incumbents in Wave Elections
February 11, 2026
by
Nathan Gonzales
2026 Senate Overview: Democrats Making Progress
January 22, 2026
by
Nathan Gonzales
&
Jacob Rubashkin
Wyoming Senate: Lummis Not Seeking Re-election
December 19, 2025
by
Nathan Gonzales
It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like … a Traditional Midterm Election
December 4, 2025
by
Nathan Gonzales
Maine 2: Open Seat Shifts Toward Republicans
November 5, 2025
by
Nathan Gonzales
12 Initial Takeaways from Tuesday’s Elections
November 5, 2025
by
Nathan Gonzales
New Hampshire Senate: Sununu Bid Boosts Republican Chances
October 22, 2025
by
Nathan Gonzales
Arizona 1: Open Seat Shifts to Toss-up
October 2, 2025
by
Nathan Gonzales
North Carolina Senate: Tillis Decision Creates Open Seat
June 29, 2025
by
Nathan Gonzales
What Happened and What’s Next after the 2024 Elections?
November 7, 2024
by
Nathan Gonzales
Outlier or Early Warning? Late Iowa Poll Confounds
November 3, 2024
by
Nathan Gonzales
7 Initial Thoughts After the Vice Presidential Debate
October 2, 2024
by
Nathan Gonzales
Trump, Harris Face Off in Philadelphia with the White House on the Line
September 11, 2024
by
Nathan Gonzales
Presidential: Walz Joins Harris on Democratic Ticket
August 7, 2024
by
Nathan Gonzales
Presidential: Trump’s Conviction is not the Time for Snap Political Analysis
May 31, 2024
by
Nathan Gonzales
Presidential Rating Change: Nevada Shifts to Toss-up
May 8, 2024
by
Nathan Gonzales
Illinois 12: Bost in Danger of Losing Primary
March 19, 2024
by
Nathan Gonzales
Presidential: Biden and Trump Locked in Close Race
March 14, 2024
by
Nathan Gonzales
A Good Night for Trump and Polling, and Other Post-Iowa Thoughts
January 16, 2024
by
Nathan Gonzales
Jacob Rubashkin Promoted to Deputy Editor
January 8, 2024
by
Nathan Gonzales
New Year, New House Ratings
January 3, 2024
by
Nathan Gonzales
2024 Senate Overview (Oct. 27, 2023): Arizona – Maine
October 27, 2023
by
Erin Covey
Gerrymandering Is Not to Blame for the Speaker Mess
October 16, 2023
by
Nathan Gonzales
Initial 2024 Presidential Battleground State Ratings
April 26, 2023
by
Nathan Gonzales
How Trump’s Legal Problems Could Affect Down Ballot Republicans
April 3, 2023
by
Nathan Gonzales
No One Knows for Sure How Trump’s Legal Problems Will Play Out
March 30, 2023
by
Nathan Gonzales
If History’s a Guide, Biden Ain’t Getting Any Stronger
February 2, 2022
by
Nathan Gonzales
The Problem with our Politics is not Partisanship
December 8, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Virginia and New Jersey Governor: A Big Night for Republicans
November 3, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Rating Change: Virginia Governor to Toss-up
November 1, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Why the 2024 Presidential Race Will Start Later Than Expected
October 8, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
The One Thing Biden Can’t Afford to Lose
September 17, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
RIP, Rally ’Round the Flag
September 9, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
How Afghanistan Will (and Won’t) Matter in 2022 Midterms
September 2, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Stop Attacking Losing Candidates
August 11, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Is John Boozman Too Nice for the Republican Party?
August 6, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
When We’ll Know How Much Trump’s Support is Worth
July 16, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
These Four States Could Decide Control of Congress in 2022
June 28, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
While You Were Underground: A Political Update for Cicadas
June 17, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Special Elections in Redistricting Cycles: To Play or Not to Play?
May 21, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Republicans Should Disband If They Don’t Win Back the House in 2022
May 18, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
The Case to Keep Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s Cash
May 6, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Few Opportunities as Parties Battle for Senate Control
April 12, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Let’s Talk About How We Talk About House Retirements
April 11, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Three Lessons from the Ghost of Redistricting Past
April 1, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Six Senators Who Owe Their Hill Careers to Redistricting
March 19, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
How the Lack of Ticket-Splitting Leads to Gridlock
March 3, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Recent History Shows Senate Retirements Don’t Tell Us Squat
February 10, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Election Predictions Look Different (and Better) Now that All the Races are Over
January 22, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Why Our 2022 Ratings Aren’t Imminent
December 23, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
What Makes a Race Competitive?
December 16, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
How Trump’s 2024 Candidacy Could Complicate GOP Chances in 2022
December 2, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
The Fight for the Senate Continues into 2022
November 19, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
Supreme Court Fight Isn’t Guaranteed Game-Changer
September 20, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
Trump Needs a Convention Bounce
September 1, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
Mississippi Senate: Espy’s 1988 convention speech offers clues to 2020 optimism
August 26, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
Politicians are the Worst (But Most Important) Political Analysts
August 11, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
Should Down-Ballot Republicans Ready a ‘No Blank Check’ Strategy?
July 10, 2020
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Candidate Conversation – Jason Atkinson (R)
April 3, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
Lesson Learned? The State of Statewide Polling
March 25, 2020
by
Bradley Wascher
Candidate Conversation – Sarah Riggs Amico (D)
March 20, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
Maine Senate: Is Susan Collins Already Behind?
February 21, 2020
by
Stuart Rothenberg
RIP, Election Night
February 21, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
Five Thoughts After the Las Vegas Democratic Debate
February 20, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
Candidate Conversation – Chris Bubser (D)
February 7, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
Virginia 7: No Such Thing as an Easy Race for Republicans
January 24, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
Is Trump really the MVP of the GOP?
January 23, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
The Steyer Boomlet
January 21, 2020
by
Stuart Rothenberg
California 50: GOP Benefits from Hunter’s Absence
January 16, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
2020 Senate Overview: GOP Women Hold Keys to GOP Majority
January 10, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
2020 Senate Overview (January 10, 2020): Alabama – Kansas
January 10, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
2020 Senate Overview (January 10, 2020): Kentucky-New Mexico
January 10, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
2020 Senate Overview (January 10, 2020): North Carolina – Wyoming
January 10, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
2020 Senate and House Outlook Looks a Lot Like It Did at the Start of 2019
January 7, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
Impeachment’s No ‘Game Changer’ and Other Pet Peeves
December 17, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
New York 27: Less Vulnerable With Collins Departure
September 30, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Luke Skywalker and the Politics of Impeachment
September 26, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
9 Things I Think I Think After the North Carolina Redo Election
September 11, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Texas 17: Add Another Republican to List of Retirements
September 4, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Trump Vulnerability in a Primary is More Fiction than Fact
September 4, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Trump Missing an Opportunity on Guns
August 26, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
House Open Seat Overview
August 16, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
How Third-Party Votes Sunk Clinton, What They Mean for Trump
August 15, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
When Trump Attacks, the Base Turns Out — For Both Parties
July 25, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Trump Admits He was a Liability in 2018
July 24, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Kentucky Senate: Seriously, Are We Doing This Again?
July 18, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
What We Can Learn from the 2004 Presidential Race
July 12, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Fallout from Amash’s Decision in Michigan and Beyond
July 10, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
How Many Ways is Michigan in Play in 2020?
July 3, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
If at First You Don’t Succeed, Try, Try and Run Somewhere Else
July 2, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Rothenberg: The 2020 Presidential Race is Still Tilting Democratic
June 21, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Upcoming Debates an Important Next Stage in Presidential Campaign
June 14, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
8 Races That Will Likely Determine Control of the Senate
June 12, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Montana At-Large: Does Open Seat Help or Hurt Democrats’ Pickup Opportunity?
June 11, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Why a GOP Super PAC is Bothering to Attack Steve Bullock’s Bid for President
June 7, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Some House Members Are Contemplating Retirement, According to History
May 30, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Oval Office Obsessions From a Crew With Little Experience, Much Ambition
May 24, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
(Mostly) Political One-Liners: Pennsylvania Special, Kentucky Governor, and the Trail Blazers
May 23, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
What Can We Learn From the North Carolina Redo Election?
May 20, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Biden, Unions and the Politics of 2020
May 16, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Stop Grading 2020 Candidate Recruitment, Particularly This Far From Election Day
May 10, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Arthur Finkelstein Reprised with GOP’s ‘Socialists’ Cries
May 7, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Wyoming: One Open Seat or Two?
May 6, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Republicans Have a Post-Trump Identity Crisis on the Horizon
April 30, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
How Gephardt’s 2004 Iowa Team Boosted the Democratic Party
April 17, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Age, Change and the Democrats’ Challenge
April 9, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
2020 Senate Overview: Defining the Relationship
April 5, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
The Case for Primaries: Arizona Edition
April 3, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Nancy Pelosi: The Democratic Party’s Undisputed Leader
April 1, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
When It Comes to Younger Voters, Watch the Margin of Victory
March 29, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
New Mexico: Ben Ray Lujan Set to Announce Senate Candidacy on Monday
March 28, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Democrats Try to Snatch Defeat from the Jaws of Victory
March 27, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Can a Senator be Nominated and Win the White House?
March 13, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Fewer Members Taking the Leap to Governor
March 1, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Democrats are Right to be Wary of Howard Schultz
February 20, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
More Presidential questions for the Democrats
February 13, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
What do Democrats Want in a President?
February 7, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
A Few Thoughts on the State of the Union Address
February 7, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Maine Senate: How Vulnerable is Susan Collins?
January 25, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Pennsylvania 12 special election: Is Marino’s seat at risk?
January 18, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Can Doug Jones win a full term in Alabama?
January 17, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
5 reasons why there’s still no end to the shutdown
January 14, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Why We’re Not Releasing 2020 Race Ratings Yet
December 21, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
House Primaries on the Horizon for Democrats in 2020
December 20, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Expect Record Turnout in 2020
December 13, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Are White Evangelicals the Saviors of the GOP?
December 12, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
The 2018 Midterms as the Buffet Election
December 3, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Five Thoughts After the Mississippi Senate Race
November 28, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
It’s Not Too Early to Start Looking at the 2020 Senate Map
November 14, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
A Few Moves on the Eve of the Election
November 5, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
For Handicapping Midterm Races, Old Rules May No Longer Apply
November 1, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Republican Migraines and the Midterm Elections
October 14, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Don’t Sweat the Election Night Surprises
October 10, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Prepare to Be Disappointed on Election Night
September 26, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
A Congressional Candidate Plays Softball in an Ad, and I Have Lots of Questions
August 30, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Why We’re Not Changing the Rating in Duncan Hunter’s Seat, Yet
August 22, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Congress Isn’t Perfect but the Politicians Aren’t Always to Blame
August 16, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Democratic Candidates Should Be Bolder on Gun Control, Poll Finds
August 9, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Support for Roe is Up, But Other Abortion Polling Divided and Steady
August 2, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
I Met 12 Democratic Candidates in Two Days and Lived to Write About It
July 30, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Brett Kavanaugh and the Midterm Effect
July 16, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
New Jersey 2: GOP House Open Seat Shifts to Likely Democratic
July 13, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
The Wrong Fight at the Wrong Time for the GOP
June 29, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
10 One-Liners after Tuesday’s Primaries
June 27, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
GOP Poll: Donnelly in Position to Win in Indiana
June 15, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Steve Bannon Is Right About the Midterms — Until He Isn’t
June 14, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Why You Should Focus on Independents
June 1, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
3 Ways Nancy Pelosi Won’t Be Speaker Next Year
May 25, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
DCCC Makes Initial TV Reservations for Fall Fight
May 22, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Famous Names on the Ballot? Sure, We Got ’Em
May 21, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Rothenberg’s Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats
May 14, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
GOP Senate Targets Fade From View
May 8, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Tennessee Senate: Why I’m Cautious About Phil Bredesen’s Prospects
April 30, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
(Mostly) Political One-Liners: Hair in Montana Ads, Let’s Remember Candidates from Kentucky
April 28, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Nebraska Senate: How Vulnerable is Deb Fischer?
April 27, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Trump Numbers Are Up. And Down. But Really Unchanged.
April 23, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Can a President Preaching Change Lead a Party of Incumbents?
April 13, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Nathan’s (Mostly) Political One-Liners: Fraudulent Signatures, Roseanne, and Kindness
April 9, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
When History Overtakes a Campaign Promise
April 6, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Nathan’s (Mostly) Political One-Liners: Barn Jackets, HGTV and Pop Punk Music
April 5, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
How Can the GOP Turn Out Trump Voters?
April 2, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Pennsylvania 6 Rating Change: Costello Decision Shifts Seat to Likely Democratic
March 25, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Insiders See Democratic House Gains of 30-45 seats
March 22, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Illinois Primaries: Ratings Changes in Two Races
March 21, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Pennsylvania 18: A Red Flag for the GOP
March 16, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Why the Gun Issue Has Shifted (It’s Not What You Think)
March 13, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Will the Suburbs Flip the House? Watch These Seats
March 6, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Running Against Pelosi May Not Save the GOP This Year
February 27, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
The Generic Is Falling! The Generic Is Falling!
February 21, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
The GOP Catch-22 — Donald Trump
February 14, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
The Stunning ‘Role of Government’ Numbers
February 8, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Watch the Polls, Ignore the Post-Shutdown Chatter
January 29, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
It’s a Blue House Wave, but Not Yet a Senate One
January 23, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
9 Things to Know about Pennsylvania’s 7th District Race
January 22, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
The Democrats’ Savior
January 16, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
House Seats You Think Can’t Flip but Might
January 10, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
9 Things to Know about Nevada’s 4th District Race
December 18, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
No One Is Afraid of a Government Shutdown
December 8, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
The Battle for Orange County in the Fight for the House
November 28, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
Can Democrats “Minnick” John Katko and Erik Paulsen?
November 16, 2017
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Members Face Tough Odds in Races for Governor
November 15, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
I Interviewed 16 House Candidates in Two Days and Survived
November 13, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
Ten Thoughts after Democrats’ Big Wins in Virginia
November 8, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
Please Don’t Call It a Push Poll: Transgender Edition
November 7, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
Why You Should Focus on Independents from Now to the Midterms
November 1, 2017
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Comparing Trump’s Job Ratings to Obama’s
October 26, 2017
by
Stuart Rothenberg
What Happened to Mountain Republicans in the South?
October 3, 2017
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Nine Thoughts After the Alabama Senate Runoff
September 27, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
LGBTQ Women Balance Opportunity, Possible Extinction in Congress
September 21, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
‘Scam PACs’ Strike Again in Utah, Wisconsin
September 13, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
PA-15 Rating Change: Dent Retirement Puts Seat in Play
September 8, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
The House Retirement Tide Is Coming
September 7, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
Merkley’s Mild Town Hall in a Red County
August 17, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
Alabama Senate: Potential for Moore Makes Seat Less Safe
August 16, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
When Congressional Spouses (Allegedly) Misbehave
July 24, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
A Bipartisan Health Care Bill Will Be Tougher to Pass than a Partisan One
July 19, 2017
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Open Seat Gives Democrats a Takeover Opportunity in New Mexico
July 17, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
One Reason Why Republicans Don’t Have More Women in the Senate
July 10, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
2018 Senate Overview: The Map vs. Reality
July 7, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
2018 Senate Overview (July 7, 2017) Alabama – Maine
July 7, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
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