Category Archive: Contributors

House: Money Isn’t Enough to Save Incumbents in Wave Elections

2026 Senate Overview: Democrats Making Progress

Wyoming Senate: Lummis Not Seeking Re-election

It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like … a Traditional Midterm Election

Maine 2: Open Seat Shifts Toward Republicans

12 Initial Takeaways from Tuesday’s Elections

New Hampshire Senate: Sununu Bid Boosts Republican Chances

Arizona 1: Open Seat Shifts to Toss-up

North Carolina Senate: Tillis Decision Creates Open Seat

What Happened and What’s Next after the 2024 Elections?

Outlier or Early Warning? Late Iowa Poll Confounds

7 Initial Thoughts After the Vice Presidential Debate

Trump, Harris Face Off in Philadelphia with the White House on the Line

Presidential: Walz Joins Harris on Democratic Ticket

Presidential: Trump’s Conviction is not the Time for Snap Political Analysis

Presidential Rating Change: Nevada Shifts to Toss-up

Illinois 12: Bost in Danger of Losing Primary

Presidential: Biden and Trump Locked in Close Race

A Good Night for Trump and Polling, and Other Post-Iowa Thoughts

Jacob Rubashkin Promoted to Deputy Editor

New Year, New House Ratings

2024 Senate Overview (Oct. 27, 2023): Arizona – Maine

Gerrymandering Is Not to Blame for the Speaker Mess

Initial 2024 Presidential Battleground State Ratings

How Trump’s Legal Problems Could Affect Down Ballot Republicans

No One Knows for Sure How Trump’s Legal Problems Will Play Out

If History’s a Guide, Biden Ain’t Getting Any Stronger

The Problem with our Politics is not Partisanship

Virginia and New Jersey Governor: A Big Night for Republicans

Rating Change: Virginia Governor to Toss-up

Why the 2024 Presidential Race Will Start Later Than Expected

The One Thing Biden Can’t Afford to Lose

RIP, Rally ’Round the Flag

How Afghanistan Will (and Won’t) Matter in 2022 Midterms

Stop Attacking Losing Candidates

Is John Boozman Too Nice for the Republican Party?

When We’ll Know How Much Trump’s Support is Worth

These Four States Could Decide Control of Congress in 2022

While You Were Underground: A Political Update for Cicadas

Special Elections in Redistricting Cycles: To Play or Not to Play?

Republicans Should Disband If They Don’t Win Back the House in 2022

The Case to Keep Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s Cash

Few Opportunities as Parties Battle for Senate Control

Let’s Talk About How We Talk About House Retirements

Three Lessons from the Ghost of Redistricting Past

Six Senators Who Owe Their Hill Careers to Redistricting

How the Lack of Ticket-Splitting Leads to Gridlock

Recent History Shows Senate Retirements Don’t Tell Us Squat

Election Predictions Look Different (and Better) Now that All the Races are Over

Why Our 2022 Ratings Aren’t Imminent

What Makes a Race Competitive?

How Trump’s 2024 Candidacy Could Complicate GOP Chances in 2022

The Fight for the Senate Continues into 2022

Supreme Court Fight Isn’t Guaranteed Game-Changer

Trump Needs a Convention Bounce

Mississippi Senate: Espy’s 1988 convention speech offers clues to 2020 optimism

Politicians are the Worst (But Most Important) Political Analysts

Should Down-Ballot Republicans Ready a ‘No Blank Check’ Strategy?

Candidate Conversation – Jason Atkinson (R)

Lesson Learned? The State of Statewide Polling

Candidate Conversation – Sarah Riggs Amico (D)

Maine Senate: Is Susan Collins Already Behind?

RIP, Election Night

Five Thoughts After the Las Vegas Democratic Debate

Candidate Conversation – Chris Bubser (D)

Virginia 7: No Such Thing as an Easy Race for Republicans

Is Trump really the MVP of the GOP?

The Steyer Boomlet

California 50: GOP Benefits from Hunter’s Absence

2020 Senate Overview: GOP Women Hold Keys to GOP Majority

2020 Senate Overview (January 10, 2020): Alabama – Kansas

2020 Senate Overview (January 10, 2020): Kentucky-New Mexico

2020 Senate Overview (January 10, 2020): North Carolina – Wyoming

2020 Senate and House Outlook Looks a Lot Like It Did at the Start of 2019

Impeachment’s No ‘Game Changer’ and Other Pet Peeves

New York 27: Less Vulnerable With Collins Departure

Luke Skywalker and the Politics of Impeachment

9 Things I Think I Think After the North Carolina Redo Election

Texas 17: Add Another Republican to List of Retirements

Trump Vulnerability in a Primary is More Fiction than Fact

Trump Missing an Opportunity on Guns

House Open Seat Overview

How Third-Party Votes Sunk Clinton, What They Mean for Trump

When Trump Attacks, the Base Turns Out — For Both Parties

Trump Admits He was a Liability in 2018

Kentucky Senate: Seriously, Are We Doing This Again?

What We Can Learn from the 2004 Presidential Race

Fallout from Amash’s Decision in Michigan and Beyond

How Many Ways is Michigan in Play in 2020?

If at First You Don’t Succeed, Try, Try and Run Somewhere Else

Rothenberg: The 2020 Presidential Race is Still Tilting Democratic

Upcoming Debates an Important Next Stage in Presidential Campaign

8 Races That Will Likely Determine Control of the Senate

Montana At-Large: Does Open Seat Help or Hurt Democrats’ Pickup Opportunity?

Why a GOP Super PAC is Bothering to Attack Steve Bullock’s Bid for President

Some House Members Are Contemplating Retirement, According to History

Oval Office Obsessions From a Crew With Little Experience, Much Ambition

(Mostly) Political One-Liners: Pennsylvania Special, Kentucky Governor, and the Trail Blazers

What Can We Learn From the North Carolina Redo Election?

Biden, Unions and the Politics of 2020

Stop Grading 2020 Candidate Recruitment, Particularly This Far From Election Day

Arthur Finkelstein Reprised with GOP’s ‘Socialists’ Cries

Wyoming: One Open Seat or Two?

Republicans Have a Post-Trump Identity Crisis on the Horizon

How Gephardt’s 2004 Iowa Team Boosted the Democratic Party

Age, Change and the Democrats’ Challenge

2020 Senate Overview: Defining the Relationship

The Case for Primaries: Arizona Edition

Nancy Pelosi: The Democratic Party’s Undisputed Leader

When It Comes to Younger Voters, Watch the Margin of Victory

New Mexico: Ben Ray Lujan Set to Announce Senate Candidacy on Monday

Democrats Try to Snatch Defeat from the Jaws of Victory

Can a Senator be Nominated and Win the White House?

Fewer Members Taking the Leap to Governor

Democrats are Right to be Wary of Howard Schultz

More Presidential questions for the Democrats

What do Democrats Want in a President?

A Few Thoughts on the State of the Union Address

Maine Senate: How Vulnerable is Susan Collins?

Pennsylvania 12 special election: Is Marino’s seat at risk?

Can Doug Jones win a full term in Alabama?

5 reasons why there’s still no end to the shutdown

Why We’re Not Releasing 2020 Race Ratings Yet

House Primaries on the Horizon for Democrats in 2020

Expect Record Turnout in 2020

Are White Evangelicals the Saviors of the GOP?

The 2018 Midterms as the Buffet Election

Five Thoughts After the Mississippi Senate Race

It’s Not Too Early to Start Looking at the 2020 Senate Map

A Few Moves on the Eve of the Election

For Handicapping Midterm Races, Old Rules May No Longer Apply

Republican Migraines and the Midterm Elections

Don’t Sweat the Election Night Surprises

Prepare to Be Disappointed on Election Night

A Congressional Candidate Plays Softball in an Ad, and I Have Lots of Questions

Why We’re Not Changing the Rating in Duncan Hunter’s Seat, Yet

Congress Isn’t Perfect but the Politicians Aren’t Always to Blame

Democratic Candidates Should Be Bolder on Gun Control, Poll Finds

Support for Roe is Up, But Other Abortion Polling Divided and Steady

I Met 12 Democratic Candidates in Two Days and Lived to Write About It

Brett Kavanaugh and the Midterm Effect

New Jersey 2: GOP House Open Seat Shifts to Likely Democratic

The Wrong Fight at the Wrong Time for the GOP

10 One-Liners after Tuesday’s Primaries

GOP Poll: Donnelly in Position to Win in Indiana

Steve Bannon Is Right About the Midterms — Until He Isn’t

Why You Should Focus on Independents

3 Ways Nancy Pelosi Won’t Be Speaker Next Year

DCCC Makes Initial TV Reservations for Fall Fight

Famous Names on the Ballot? Sure, We Got ’Em

Rothenberg’s Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats

GOP Senate Targets Fade From View

Tennessee Senate: Why I’m Cautious About Phil Bredesen’s Prospects

(Mostly) Political One-Liners: Hair in Montana Ads, Let’s Remember Candidates from Kentucky

Nebraska Senate: How Vulnerable is Deb Fischer?

Trump Numbers Are Up. And Down. But Really Unchanged.

Can a President Preaching Change Lead a Party of Incumbents?

Nathan’s (Mostly) Political One-Liners: Fraudulent Signatures, Roseanne, and Kindness

When History Overtakes a Campaign Promise

Nathan’s (Mostly) Political One-Liners: Barn Jackets, HGTV and Pop Punk Music

How Can the GOP Turn Out Trump Voters?

Pennsylvania 6 Rating Change: Costello Decision Shifts Seat to Likely Democratic

Insiders See Democratic House Gains of 30-45 seats

Illinois Primaries: Ratings Changes in Two Races

Pennsylvania 18: A Red Flag for the GOP

Why the Gun Issue Has Shifted (It’s Not What You Think)

Will the Suburbs Flip the House? Watch These Seats

Running Against Pelosi May Not Save the GOP This Year

The Generic Is Falling! The Generic Is Falling!

The GOP Catch-22 — Donald Trump

The Stunning ‘Role of Government’ Numbers

Watch the Polls, Ignore the Post-Shutdown Chatter

It’s a Blue House Wave, but Not Yet a Senate One

9 Things to Know about Pennsylvania’s 7th District Race

The Democrats’ Savior

House Seats You Think Can’t Flip but Might

9 Things to Know about Nevada’s 4th District Race

No One Is Afraid of a Government Shutdown

The Battle for Orange County in the Fight for the House

Can Democrats “Minnick” John Katko and Erik Paulsen?

Members Face Tough Odds in Races for Governor

I Interviewed 16 House Candidates in Two Days and Survived

Ten Thoughts after Democrats’ Big Wins in Virginia

Please Don’t Call It a Push Poll: Transgender Edition

Why You Should Focus on Independents from Now to the Midterms

Comparing Trump’s Job Ratings to Obama’s

What Happened to Mountain Republicans in the South?

Nine Thoughts After the Alabama Senate Runoff

LGBTQ Women Balance Opportunity, Possible Extinction in Congress

‘Scam PACs’ Strike Again in Utah, Wisconsin

PA-15 Rating Change: Dent Retirement Puts Seat in Play

The House Retirement Tide Is Coming

Merkley’s Mild Town Hall in a Red County

Alabama Senate: Potential for Moore Makes Seat Less Safe

When Congressional Spouses (Allegedly) Misbehave

A Bipartisan Health Care Bill Will Be Tougher to Pass than a Partisan One

Open Seat Gives Democrats a Takeover Opportunity in New Mexico

One Reason Why Republicans Don’t Have More Women in the Senate

2018 Senate Overview: The Map vs. Reality

2018 Senate Overview (July 7, 2017) Alabama – Maine