Analysis

1217 Results

North Carolina: Blue Wave Steered Clear of ‘Blue Moon’ Election

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Post-Midterms Baseline and Vote Above Replacement (VAR) Update

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Expect Record Turnout in 2020

With the 2018 elections coming to an end, it’s clear that voters set a modern record for turnout in a midterm. And there’s no reason to believe voters won’t set another record two years from now. According to the United States Election Project, turnout this year was nearly 50 percent of the voting-eligible population, the […]

Are White Evangelicals the Saviors of the GOP?

Amid all the talk about shifting demographics and political changes over the last decade, one key voting group has remained virtually unchanged: white evangelicals. According to one evangelical leader, a record number of white evangelicals voted in the 2018 midterms after an inspired turnout effort. “This is the most ambitious and most effective voter education, […]

The 2018 Midterms as the Buffet Election

When I was a kid in small-town Oregon, my family would occasionally go to King’s Table, and my sister and I would get free rein at the buffet. I became famous in my own family for my condiment salad — an impressive collection of bacon bits, croutons, shredded cheese, sunflower seeds and plenty of ranch […]

Goodbye Midterm Dynamic, Hello Presidential Politics

Midterm elections and presidential cycles have such different dynamics that the two should almost never be discussed together. That will not prevent people from doing so, but they should resist the temptation.  Midterms tend to be referendums on the incumbent president, while each presidential election is a choice between nominees. Of course, a presidential re-election […]

Five Thoughts After the Mississippi Senate Race

Even though it looks like California will be counting votes until Christmas, I’m ready to close the book on the 2018 midterm elections now that the Mississippi Senate race is over. Yes, I know there are runoffs in Georgia and Louisiana for state races, but the marquee matchups are complete. Here are some thoughts before […]

Mississippi Senate Special: Delta Delays

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2018 Midterms Review: Back to Normal

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It’s Not Too Early to Start Looking at the 2020 Senate Map

The races are still being finalized in the 2018 Senate elections, but we know the size of the incoming majority will be critical, because the 2020 Senate map offers limited initial takeover opportunities for both parties. Of course, it’s too early to tell what the presidential race will look like, how voters will feel about […]