Analysis

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2020 Senate Overview (April 5, 2019): Alabama – Kansas

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2020 Senate Overview (April 5, 2019): Kentucky – New Mexico

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2020 Senate Overview (April 5, 2019): North Carolina – Wyoming

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The Case for Primaries: Arizona Edition

Democrats breathed a sigh of relief last week when Rep. Ruben Gallego decided not to run for the Senate, likely avoiding a primary in the run-up to a competitive general election in Arizona. That’s because “bitter,” “bloody,” and “bruising” seem to be the most commonly used adjectives to describe primaries these days, even though they […]

When It Comes to Younger Voters, Watch the Margin of Victory

There’s really no question Democrats are going to win younger voters in 2020. But what matters for them is the size of their margin of victory.  Republicans haven’t carried 18-to-29-year-olds in an election cycle since 1994, when exit polling showed them besting Democrats in this age group, 51 percent to 49 percent. They broke even […]

New Mexico: Ben Ray Lujan Set to Announce Senate Candidacy on Monday

Democratic Rep. Ben Ray Lujan plans to run for the Senate in New Mexico and is set to officially announce his candidacy on Monday, according to two sources familiar with the congressman’s decision. The seat is open after Democratic Sen. Tom Udall announced he would not seek re-election in 2020.  Lujan, the former chairman of the […]

For Senators, Pressure To Cross Party Lines Is Light

Twelve Republicans parted with President Donald Trump on his national emergency funding. But given the electoral politics of the Senate, it would be unwise to expect much crossparty voting in the future. The partisan performance of a state is not the only consideration that Senators take into account when making decisions on policy. But whether […]

New Mexico Senate Remains Solid Democratic For Now

Open seats are usually better takeover opportunities, but Republicans still have plenty of work to do in New Mexico to prove they’ve got a real chance of flipping the seat. Democratic Sen. Tom Udall of New Mexico announced on Monday that he would not seek re-election, but it’s been close to 20 years since Republicans […]

A Few Thoughts on the State of the Union Address

I did something dangerous Tuesday night. I watched the State of the Union and the Democratic response on my own, without Twitter as a crutch. I even watched the C-SPAN feed on my phone in order to avoid commentary from the networks and cable channels. My goal was to avoid groupthink and try to formulate […]

Too Early for Senate Ratings?

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