Analysis

4240 Results

Convention: Blue State Sen. Brown (R) Doesn’t Shy Away from Ruby Red Event

TAMPA, Fla. — Sen. Scott Brown (R) may need a half a million Obama voters to get re-elected in Massachusetts, but that’s not keeping him away from appearing at the Republican Party’s biggest event. “Mitt Romney is his friend,” said Eric Fehrnstrom, a senior advisor to both Brown and the former Massachusetts governor, in an […]

Convention: Opposition Trackers Follow Candidates to Tampa, Charlotte

TAMPA, Fla. — In the modern era of campaigns, candidates in competitive races can’t go anywhere without someone from the other party following them with a video camera– and the party conventions are no different. Fewer GOP House and Senate candidates have made the trek to the Republican National Convention here in Florida, and few […]

What a 2004 Poll Tells Us About 2012

Eight years ago, right before Republicans gathered in New York City from Aug. 30 to Sept. 2 to renominate President George W. Bush for a second term, a newly released NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll showed Bush vulnerable and in a dogfight against his challenger, a Massachusetts Democrat. In many respects, that survey bears a […]

After Arizona Primaries, 9th District Rating Change

Tuesday’s primaries in Arizona offered a little bit of everything, including a Member vs. Member race and what GOP strategists are calling “a gift.” The 9th District is brand new, after the Grand Canyon State was awarded another seat in Congress through reapportionment, and its first general election could be a fascinating race between an […]

Connecticut Senate: Move to Lean Democrat

Less than two years ago, Republican Linda McMahon drew just 43 percent of the vote in Connecticut’s Senate race after spending over $50 million on her candidacy. Given that showing, there was little reason to believe than another run by McMahon, a businesswoman who ran a professional wrestling entertainment company, would produce a better result. […]

Convention: Lone Star Lamentations

TAMPA, Fla. – It was supposed to be Rep. Quico Canseco’s shining moment. As he addressed RNC delegates Tuesday afternoon, the freshman Republican broke into Spanish, telling a warm GOP crowd that with Romney, “we can do better.” But as soon as he stepped off the stage, Canseco was greeted with some potentially grim news […]

Convention: To NRCC, Offense is the Best Defense

TAMPA, Fla. — Republicans are defending their majority, but that’s not stopping them from playing offense and from trying to pin Democrats down and forcing them to defend some of their own districts. GOP operatives are very bullish on their chances in several districts where Democrats survived tough races in 2010. As congressional candidates take […]

Convention: In Politics, Timing Can Be Everything

As a reformed political scientist who still looks closely at polls and is always knee-deep in past electoral results, I understand that people are impressed by statistical analysis, even when it creates a faulty sense of precision. But what makes politics so fascinating is the unexpected development, the unquantifiable act. All of the talk about […]

Virginia 2: Roads to Power

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Ohio 14: Competitive Later, Rather Than Sooner

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