Mark Robinson’s first campaign rally announcing his run for governor of North Carolina was more notable for what he didn’t say than what he did say. At a racing track in Alamance County last weekend, the Republican lieutenant governor hit on a number of tried-and-true conservative talking points on taxes, education and law enforcement — for the most…
For the first time since 1986, the president’s party netted gubernatorial seats in a midterm election, as Democrats gained three new governorships in 2022 and Republicans flipped only one. Although it wasn’t much of a surprise that Massachusetts and Maryland moved into the Democrats’ column, Arizona (another Democratic flip) and Nevada (the Republican pickup) were battlegrounds from the…
Even though the Virginia gubernatorial race is just one race in one state (OK, commonwealth), Republican Glenn Youngkin’s victory will reverberate around the country and set the early stage for the 2022 midterm elections. Considering the next big Election Day is a year away, there will be plenty of time to digest the results from Virginia, New Jersey,…
Under normal conditions, Democrats win in Virginia. But these clearly aren’t normal conditions. In the final moments of the 2021 race for governor, it’s clear that the race is coming down to the wire and Democrats no longer have a discernible advantage. We’re changing our rating from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up, a positive sign for Republicans. Considering Joe…
A month after polls closed, California has finally finished counting all the ballots for the recall election. In the end, it wasn’t close — Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom prevailed 62-38 percent. While polling pointed to a relatively competitive race for a few weeks, Newsom actually matched his margin from the 2018 gubernatorial election. Democrats in California and across…
Even though this fall's race for governor in Virginia is just one race in one state, it will determine the initial narrative of the midterm elections next year. Former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe has had a consistent advantage over Republican Glenn Youngkin in the commonwealth, but some Democratic strategists are concerned about President Joe Biden’s drag on the…
It’s Election Day, but more than eight million Californians have already voted in the recall election. Since our last update two weeks ago, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has strengthened his position and is increasingly likely to defeat the recall attempt. Polling The FiveThirtyEight polling average currently gives Newsom a 16-point advantage in his effort to remain in office.…