Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Florida
Senate

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Solid R

2025 Baseline

What's This?
R +10.3
D: 44.5%, R: 54.8%
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Florida passed a new congressional map designed to help Republicans pick up as many as four additional seats in the fall.
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2026 Election

Class III

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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APR
24
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
AUG
18
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Report Shorts (Feb. 19, 2026)

February 19, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview

January 22, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (Oct. 23, 2025): Alabama – Kansas

October 23, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

House & Senate Report Shorts (Aug. 28, 2025)

August 28, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (July 24, 2025): Alabama – Kansas

July 24, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (April 17, 2025): Alabama – Kansas

April 17, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (March 20, 2025)

March 20, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Jan. 24, 2025)

January 24, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Florida and Ohio Appointments Fill Out Senate Battlefield

January 17, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (Jan. 9, 2025): Alabama – Kansas

January 9, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
January 17, 2025
Solid Republican
January 9, 2025
Not Up This Cycle
January 9, 2025
Solid Republican
2024
September 26, 2024
Likely Republican
January 6, 2023
Solid Republican
January 6, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2022
January 7, 2022
Likely Republican
January 8, 2021
Battleground Republican
2020
January 4, 2019
Not Up This Cycle
2018
November 1, 2018
Tilt Democrat
April 9, 2018
Toss-up
January 13, 2017
Tilt Democrat
January 13, 2017
Not Up This Cycle
2016
September 30, 2016
Lean Republican
August 5, 2016
Tilt Republican
July 1, 2016
Toss-up
April 3, 2015
Toss-up
January 9, 2015
Tilt Republican
2014
January 25, 2013
Not Up This Cycle
2012
November 2, 2012
Likely Democrat
September 28, 2012
Lean Democrat
August 10, 2012
Tilt Democrat
April 20, 2012
Lean Democrat
April 8, 2011
Tilt Democrat
January 28, 2011
Lean Democrat
January 1, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
2010
October 1, 2010
Likely Republican
September 17, 2010
Lean Republican
August 9, 2010
Toss-up
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle
June 24, 2010
Tilt Republican

Baselines

About
2025+10.3D 44.5, R 54.8
2024
+10.3
2022
+8.8
2020
+5.6
2018
+4.5
2016
+8.9
2014
+8.6