Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Texas
President

State Map

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Current Rating

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No Rating

2025 Baseline

What's This?
R +10.9
D: 43.8%, R: 54.7%
August 20, 2025
Texas passed a new congressional map in August 2025 designed to help the party flip as many as five Democratic-held districts.
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2026 Election

Incumbents

  • Vacant

Candidates

Unopposed

Past Elections

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Calendar

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DEC
8
2025
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAR
3
2026
Primary Election Day
MAY
26
2026
Primary Runoff
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Trump’s Surprising Gains with Minority Voters

November 19, 2020
by Ryan Matsumoto

Presidential Snapshot in Time (October 30, 2020)

October 30, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

2020 Election Preview: Bracing for History

October 28, 2020
by Jacob Rubashkin

Presidential Battlegrounds: Texas

September 18, 2020
by Ryan Matsumoto

Electoral College Outlook: Biden Has the Edge

July 17, 2020
by Nathan Gonzales

Presidential Snapshot in Time: July 10, 2020

July 10, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Presidential Snapshot in Time (June 26, 2020)

June 26, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Presidential Snapshot in Time (June 12, 2020)

June 12, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Ted Cruz Might Not Need Trump Supporters

January 7, 2016
by Nathan Gonzales

Ratings

2024
April 26, 2023
Likely Republican
April 26, 2023
Likely Republican
2020
October 28, 2020
Toss-up
October 28, 2020
Toss-up
July 17, 2020
Tilt Republican
July 17, 2020
Tilt Republican
April 3, 2020
Likely Republican
April 3, 2020
Likely Republican
March 8, 2019
Solid Republican
2016
March 6, 2015
Solid Republican
2012
December 2, 2011
Solid Republican
December 2, 2011
Solid Republican

Baselines

About
2025+10.9D 43.8, R 54.7
2024
+10.9
2022
+10.6
2020
+13.0
2018
+14.5
2016
+19.9
2014
+18.7