Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Ohio
President

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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No Rating

2025 Baseline

What's This?
R +10.0
D: 44.4%, R: 54.4%

2026 Election

Incumbents

  • Vacant

Candidates

Unopposed

Past Elections

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Calendar

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FEB
4
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAY
5
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

See All

Outlier or Early Warning? Late Iowa Poll Confounds

November 3, 2024
by Nathan Gonzales

Presidential Snapshot in Time (October 30, 2020)

October 30, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Presidential Snapshot in Time (October 2, 2020)

October 2, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Electoral College Outlook: Biden Has the Edge

July 17, 2020
by Nathan Gonzales

Presidential Snapshot in Time (June 26, 2020)

June 26, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Presidential Snapshot in Time (June 12, 2020)

June 12, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

John Kasich’s Utterly Strange, Bizarre Campaign

March 24, 2016
by Stuart Rothenberg

Obama’s Empty Campaign Threat on Gun Control

January 12, 2016
by Nathan Gonzales

Ratings

2024
April 26, 2023
Likely Republican
April 26, 2023
Likely Republican
2020
October 16, 2020
Toss-up
October 16, 2020
Toss-up
July 17, 2020
Tilt Republican
July 17, 2020
Tilt Republican
March 8, 2019
Likely Republican
March 8, 2019
Likely Republican
2016
September 16, 2016
Toss-up
September 16, 2016
Toss-up
May 19, 2016
Tilt Democrat
May 19, 2016
Tilt Democrat
March 6, 2015
Toss-up
2012
October 26, 2012
Toss-up
October 26, 2012
Toss-up
September 21, 2012
Lean Democrat
March 9, 2012
Toss-up
March 9, 2012
Toss-up
February 24, 2012
Solid Democrat
February 24, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 27, 2012
Lean Democrat
January 27, 2012
Lean Republican
December 16, 2011
Lean Democrat
December 16, 2011
Lean Republican
December 2, 2011
Lean Republican

Baselines

About
2025+10.0D 44.4, R 54.4
2024
+10.0
2022
+11.0
2020
+11.5
2018
+9.5
2016
+12.3
2014
+8.3