Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Michigan
President

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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No Rating

2025 Baseline

What's This?
D +4.5
D: 51%, R: 46.5%

2026 Election

Incumbents

  • Vacant

Candidates

Unopposed

Past Elections

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Calendar

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APR
21
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
AUG
4
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Presidential: Biden and Trump Locked in Close Race

March 14, 2024
by Nathan Gonzales

How Biden Rebuilt the Blue Wall

December 3, 2020
by Ryan Matsumoto

Presidential Snapshot in Time (October 30, 2020)

October 30, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Presidential Snapshot in Time (October 2, 2020)

October 2, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

TV Ads Shape Presidential Battleground

July 20, 2020
by Steve Passwaiter

Electoral College Outlook: Biden Has the Edge

July 17, 2020
by Nathan Gonzales

Presidential Snapshot in Time: July 10, 2020

July 10, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Presidential Snapshot in Time (June 26, 2020)

June 26, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Presidential Snapshot in Time (June 12, 2020)

June 12, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Presidential Snapshot in Time (May 29, 2020)

May 29, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Ratings

2024
March 14, 2024
Toss-up
March 14, 2024
Toss-up
April 26, 2023
Tilt Democrat
April 26, 2023
Tilt Democrat
2020
July 17, 2020
Lean Democrat
March 8, 2019
Tilt Democrat
March 8, 2019
Tilt Democrat
2016
November 3, 2016
Lean Democrat
March 6, 2015
Likely Democrat
March 6, 2015
Likely Democrat
2012
November 2, 2012
Lean Democrat
September 21, 2012
Solid Democrat
September 21, 2012
Solid Democrat
March 9, 2012
Lean Democrat
February 24, 2012
Solid Democrat
February 24, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 27, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 27, 2012
Lean Democrat
January 27, 2012
Solid Democrat
December 16, 2011
Solid Democrat
December 16, 2011
Lean Democrat
December 16, 2011
Solid Democrat
December 2, 2011
Lean Democrat

Baselines

About
2025+4.5D 51.0, R 46.5
2024
+4.5
2022
+5.0
2020
+1.9
2018
+3.7
2016
+1.4
2014
+1.8