Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Iowa
President

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Current Rating

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2025 Baseline

What's This?
R +7.1
D: 45.7%, R: 52.8%

2026 Election

Incumbents

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Unopposed

Past Elections

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Calendar

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MAR
13
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
JUN
2
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Outlier or Early Warning? Late Iowa Poll Confounds

November 3, 2024
by Nathan Gonzales

A Good Night for Trump and Polling, and Other Post-Iowa Thoughts

January 16, 2024
by Nathan Gonzales

Presidential Snapshot in Time (October 30, 2020)

October 30, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Electoral College Outlook: Biden Has the Edge

July 17, 2020
by Nathan Gonzales

Presidential Snapshot in Time (June 12, 2020)

June 12, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

What We Can Learn from the 2004 Presidential Race

July 12, 2019
by Stuart Rothenberg

How to Survive and Thrive in Iowa — Words of Wisdom from Former Staffers

April 18, 2019
by Nathan Gonzales

How Gephardt’s 2004 Iowa Team Boosted the Democratic Party

April 17, 2019
by Nathan Gonzales

Ratings Change: Obama State Shifts to Trump

November 7, 2016
by Nathan Gonzales

New Presidential Baseline After First Debate?

September 30, 2016
by Nathan Gonzales

Ratings

2024
November 3, 2024
Tilt Republican
November 3, 2024
Tilt Republican
April 26, 2023
Likely Republican
April 26, 2023
Likely Republican
2020
October 16, 2020
Toss-up
October 16, 2020
Toss-up
July 17, 2020
Tilt Republican
July 17, 2020
Tilt Republican
March 8, 2019
Lean Republican
2016
November 7, 2016
Tilt Republican
November 7, 2016
Tilt Republican
September 30, 2016
Toss-up
September 30, 2016
Toss-up
September 16, 2016
Tilt Democrat
September 16, 2016
Tilt Democrat
March 6, 2015
Lean Democrat
2012
March 9, 2012
Toss-up
March 9, 2012
Toss-up
February 24, 2012
Solid Democrat
February 24, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 27, 2012
Lean Democrat
January 27, 2012
Toss-up
January 27, 2012
Toss-up
December 16, 2011
Lean Democrat
December 16, 2011
Toss-up
December 16, 2011
Toss-up
December 2, 2011
Toss-up
December 2, 2011
Toss-up

Baselines

About
2025+7.1D 45.7, R 52.8
2024
+7.1
2022
+7.4
2020
+5.7
2018
+4.3
2016
+8.0
2014
+4.3