Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Arizona
President

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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No Rating

2025 Baseline

What's This?
R +1.3
D: 49.1%, R: 50.4%

2026 Election

No persons found for this state, office, and election year.

Past Elections

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Calendar

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APR
6
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
JUL
21
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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2024 Presidential Battlegrounds: Arizona

August 29, 2024
by Bradley Wascher

Initial 2024 Presidential Battleground State Ratings

April 26, 2023
by Nathan Gonzales

Trump’s Surprising Gains with Minority Voters

November 19, 2020
by Ryan Matsumoto

Presidential Snapshot in Time (October 30, 2020)

October 30, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Presidential Snapshot in Time (October 2, 2020)

October 2, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

TV Ads Shape Presidential Battleground

July 20, 2020
by Steve Passwaiter

Electoral College Outlook: Biden Has the Edge

July 17, 2020
by Nathan Gonzales

Presidential Snapshot in Time: July 10, 2020

July 10, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Presidential Snapshot in Time (June 26, 2020)

June 26, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Presidential Snapshot in Time (May 29, 2020)

May 29, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Ratings

2024
April 26, 2023
Toss-up
April 26, 2023
Toss-up
2020
July 17, 2020
Tilt Democrat
July 17, 2020
Tilt Democrat
April 3, 2020
Toss-up
April 3, 2020
Toss-up
March 8, 2019
Tilt Republican
2016
October 21, 2016
Tilt Republican
October 21, 2016
Tilt Republican
August 19, 2016
Lean Republican
March 6, 2015
Likely Republican
March 6, 2015
Likely Republican
2012
March 9, 2012
Solid Republican
March 9, 2012
Solid Republican
February 24, 2012
Lean Democrat
January 27, 2012
Toss-up
January 27, 2012
Solid Republican
January 27, 2012
Toss-up
January 27, 2012
Solid Republican
December 16, 2011
Toss-up
December 16, 2011
Solid Republican
December 16, 2011
Toss-up
December 16, 2011
Solid Republican
December 2, 2011
Solid Republican
December 2, 2011
Solid Republican

Baselines

About
2025+1.3D 49.1, R 50.4
2024
+1.3
2022
+1.8
2020
+3.5
2018
+4.9
2016
+9.4
2014
+8.8