Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980
Ratings

Arizona

Arizona has 11 electoral college votes and 9 congressional districts.

Office
Incumbent
Rating
Governor
DHobbsToss-up
Toss-up
Senate I
DRuben GallegoNot Up This Cycle
Not Up This Cycle
Senate III
DMark KellyNot Up This Cycle
Not Up This Cycle
AZ-01
RSchweikertOPENToss-up
Toss-up
AZ-02
RCraneLikely Republican
Likely Republican
AZ-03
DAnsariSolid Democrat
Solid Democrat
AZ-04
DStantonSolid Democrat
Solid Democrat
AZ-05
RBiggsOPENSolid Republican
Solid Republican
AZ-06
RCiscomaniToss-up
Toss-up
AZ-07
DGrijalvaSolid Democrat
Solid Democrat
AZ-08
RHamadehSolid Republican
Solid Republican
AZ-09
RGosarSolid Republican
Solid Republican

Past Elections

Subscribe

To view past election results you'll need to have access to an active subscription.

Sign UpLogin

Podcasts

Listen
No podcasts found for this election year.

Share

Twitter (X) Facebook Email

Baselines

About
2025+1.3D 49.1, R 50.4
2024
+1.3
2022
+1.8
2020
+3.5
2018
+4.9
2016
+9.4
2014
+8.8

Calendar

See All
APR
6
2026
AZ
Candidate Filing Deadline
JUL
21
2026
AZ
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

See All

Gubernatorial Overview (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan Gonzales & Inshara Ali

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

House Overview (March 12, 2026): Alabama – Iowa

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Feb. 19, 2026)

February 19, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2025): Alabama – Iowa

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin