Category Archive: Stuart Rothenberg

Perfect Storm for Democratic Pickups

What Really Happened in the House

Jumping to Conclusions on the 2012 Elections

The Economy Is Crumbling So Let’s Talk Abortion and Rape

The Race for the White House Enters Final Stretch

Reverting to the Norm: The Race Narrows

Senate Fight: Still Too Early to Count Chickens

Looking for House Upsets? Take a Look at These

List of House Goners Not What We Expected

The Race that Never Stops Surprising

Why’d Mitt Romney Take So Long to Move to the Middle?

Can a Race Be Tight and Yet Not Competitive?

Race for the White House: Can Romney Mount a Comeback?

Friday’s Numbers: Does Anybody Still Care?

Democratic Surge in House Races? Not So Fast

Race for the White House Shifts Toward the President

In Politics, Expect the Unexpected

‘State Waves’ and the Fight for the Senate

Both Parties Roll the Dice on Medicare Issue

Convention: The Iowa Straw Poll and the National Political Conventions

What a 2004 Poll Tells Us About 2012

Connecticut Senate: Move to Lean Democrat

Convention: In Politics, Timing Can Be Everything

Missouri Senate: Move to Pure Toss-up

First NRCC IE Ads Show Surprising Diversity

Handicapping the Presidential Race: Watch the Samples and Weighting

2012 Senate Overview (August 10, 2012) Arizona – Michigan

2012 Senate Overview (August 10, 2012) Minnesota-Ohio

2012 Senate Overview (August 10, 2012) Pennsylvania – Wyoming

On a Run of Strong Congressional Candidates

Polls or Fundamentals in N.Y. 1st District Race?

Cruz Versus Dewhurst: More Than a Primary

Voter Overload and the Presidential Endgame

In Fight for the House, the Trajectory Is Clear

How Can Anyone Govern After This Campaign?

Conventions: From Meaningful to Meaningless

Ratings Change: Connecticut Senate Gets Less Safe

Ratings Change: Maine Senate Moves Toward Democrats, Sort of

House Battleground: Four Months To Go

Big Legal Win for President, Big Political Win for Republicans

Senate Majority Still Up for Grabs in November

Barack Obama the Underdog Against ‘Change’ Slogan

Reflections on 20 Years as Accidental Columnist

Can Any of These House Underdogs Survive?

What’s Different About the New ‘New Right’?

Are We Headed for Another Electoral Mess?

Just How Competitive Is the Ohio Senate Race?

Texas Senate: Can Dewhurst Hit 50 Percent in Primary?

How Citizens United Is Affecting Campaigns

Senate Control Remains a 50/50 Matter

2012 Senate Overview (May 18, 2012) Arizona – Michigan

2012 Senate Overview (May 18, 2012) Minnesota – Ohio

2012 Senate Overview (May 18, 2012) Pennsylvania – Wyoming

Is Pennsylvania In Play for November? Maybe.

Sticks and Stones May Break My Bones …

Guarded Prospects for Southern Democrats, Northeast Republicans

On Second Thought, Maybe N.C. Was a Mistake

Truth About Mitt Romney’s Running Mate Choice

One Way to Look at the Presidential Polls

Don’t Believe the Anti-Incumbent Narrative

Can Mitt Romney Return to ‘Referendum’ Message?

Taking A Different Look At The Gender Gap

House Battleground Comes Into Focus

Mitt Romney’s Weakness Is Also Strength — or Is It?

In GOP Presidential Race, Fat Lady Finally Sings

If Lugar Loses, Will Indiana Really Be in Play?

What Could Be Next in the Race for President?

Who Else for Vice President but Marco Rubio?

Redistricting’s Bottom Line

Wins, Delegates and the Long GOP Fight Ahead

Democrats Face Ideological House Primaries

For Mitt Romney, a Good Night but Not a Knockout

Nebraska and Hawaii: Studying Senate Handicapping

Republican Roller Coaster Ride Continues

Claire McCaskill’s Mountain: A Tough Climb to Victory

Senate Control Hangs in the Balance

Presidential Race Map: Obama vs. Santorum

When Do Political Rules No Longer Apply?

Nevada, Massachusetts Key to Senate Control

Just How Much Does Gingrich Hate Romney?

The Hoopla Surrounding Romney’s Electability

Newt’s Southern Strategy: Not Impossible, Just Very Unlikely

In Florida: Anger, Confusion, Musical Chairs

Don’t Bet on Gingrich Showing Up in Tampa

In Presidential Polling, Context Always Matters

Heading to Florida after a Big Win for Newt

What Are the Chances of a Republican White Knight?

Will GOP Risk Goldwater II With Newt Gingrich in 2012?

Toxic Congress: Dose of Electoral Uncertainty

Virginia Redistricting: Making the “Ins” Further “In”

A Rough Estimate of the Current House Field

Mitt McCain — The GOP’s Strange Replay of 2008

2012 House Overview (January 13, 2012)

Time for Rothenberg Annual Year-End Awards

Newt’s Surge: How High, How Long?

Can Mitt Romney Conquer Newt Gingrich, His Own Ceiling?

Another Year of Prognostication Ups and Downs

Do Democrats Face More Trouble From Occupy Wall Street?

Fight for Senate Hinges on Six White House Battlegrounds

New Texas Map Yet Another Win for Democrats

For Republicans, It’s a Matter of Head or Heart

2012 Senate Overview (November 18, 2011)

A Strange Way to Pick Presidential Candidates

Next in Line (Apparently) for GOP: Newt Gingrich

House Overview: What’s In Play?

Is This the Ugliest Redistricting Cycle Ever?

For Bob McDonnell, VP Talk Won’t Go Away

Do the PPP Polls Mean Anything?

Would Cain Be Leading the Race if He Were White?

So You Want to Be a Political Handicapper, Part II

Think You Can Be a Political Handicapper?

Stu’s Dangerous Dozen: Unsafe House Incumbents

Obama’s Electoral College Outlook Depends on His Opponent

For Some GOPers, It’s Still Anyone but Mitt Romney

Why Is There So Much Mud in South Carolina?

This Is Not Your Father’s Democratic Party

2012 House Overview (October 7, 2011)

Electoral Vote Advantage Goes to Mitt Romney

Another Boomlet for an Unknown Republican

Barack Obama, Predictions and the Red Sox

Connecticut 5: Can Anyone Deny Donovan a Seat in Congress?

Should Obama Run Against Congress?

Will GOP Choose John Kerry or Howard Dean?

Democrats Jump the Shark in New York Special

Republicans Solidify Ohio with New Map

Can Small RNC Rule Change Affect GOP Race?

Political Unity Peaked After Attacks

Is Spending Creating a Consensus on Defense?

Wisconsin Senate: Thompson’s Return May Be Coming Too Late

The Nothingness of the Iowa Straw Poll

Debt Ceiling Fight Is So Yesterday’s News

GOP Hoping to Hang On in Wisconsin Recalls

Will Debt Dance Be a Disaster for Incumbents?

In Debt Debacle, Someone Will Have to Blink

These Are the Dog Days for Rating Senate Races

Is the House Now in Play for the 2012 Elections?

Debt Ceiling Stalemate Not About Numbers

GOP Primary Features Two Two-Person Races

Ask a Bad Question, You’ll Get a Bad Answer

Are Obama’s Polls Worse Than Meet the Eye?

Republicans Try to Even the Score with New North Carolina Lines

The Politics of the Debt Ceiling Are Too Tempting

Who Lost the New Hampshire GOP Debate? Me

Rick Perry: Republican Savior or GOP Disaster?

2012 House Overview (June 20, 2011)

Will Governors Hurt GOP’s White House Prospects?

Is History on House Members’ Side in 2012?

30 Years Later, Nolan Considers Comeback Bid

Why You Need to Ignore Most Current Polling

Only Hypocrisy Is Truly Bipartisan

GOP Might Want to Rethink the Ryan Boomlet

Shrinking Republican Field Benefits Pawlenty

Republicans Face No-Win Situation in New York 26

Huntsman: More or Less Than Meets the Eye?

Debt Limit Vote: You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet

Don’t Start Planning Obama Inauguration Yet

Does Daniels Really Fit GOP’s Bill? Maybe So

The Shape of Redistricting, Part I: Iowa, Louisiana, Arkansas

Obama, GOP Not Serious About Deficit Deal

The Uneven Senate Landscape of 2012 (and 2014)

The New Norm: Last-Minute Political Deals

2012 Senate Overview (April 8, 2011)

LeMieux Nabs Jon Lerner to Advise Senate Bid

Trump in 2012? Not Every Stupid Idea Is Funny

Odds Are Against Lugar in Bid for Seventh Term

GOP Struggles to Figure Out Voter File Future

Are GOP Freshmen Ready to Rumble in 2012?

Tim Kaine Might Not Be the Perfect Answer

An Early Look at 2012 ‘Elite Eight’ Battleground

The Great Disappearing Act of Nancy Pelosi

Wisconsin: Degenerating Quickly Into the Muck

Hawaii Senate: Open Seat Remains Safe for Now

Tim Pawlenty’s Michele Bachmann Problem

Personal Take on Brain Injuries and Senate Bids

Change on the Horizon for House Democrats

Webb Underscores Democrats’ 2012 Challenge

Ratings Changes in Two New Senate Open Seats

Another Loss From America’s Best Generation

Why Romney Is a Very Frail GOP Frontrunner

Are We Headed for Four Wave Elections in a Row?

2012 Senate Overview (January 28, 2011)

So Far, Boehner Is an Able Adversary for Obama

Redistricting Winner Is Still to Be Determined