Category Archive: Stuart Rothenberg

Fight for Senate Control Down to Five States

The Republican Brand’s Recovery Tour — Sort Of

A National Election or a Localized One?

The Best Ads of 2014 – Oh Really?

Senate Ratings vs. Senate Expecations

Republicans Use Birth Control as Campaign Wedge

Numbers Game Still Favors GOP Senate Majority

2014 Senate Overview (August 29, 2014) Alabama – Kansas

2014 Senate Overview (August 29, 2014) Kentucky – New Mexico

And the Winner of the GOP’s Civil War Primary Is…Part II

Not Your Typical Southern Democrat in South Carolina

Self-Fulfilling Prophecy Might Be Why Americans Hate Congress

New Poll Numbers Reinforce Bush-Obama Comparisons

President George W. Obama Meets the Midterms

So You Want to Be a Political Handicapper? 2014 Edition

Montana Senate Moves to Lean Republican

Montana Senate: A Real Race or Simply Manufactured Buzz?

‘Simple’ Doesn’t Equal ‘Easy’ in N.H. Senate Race

Fight for the House About 2016, not 2014

Fight for the Senate Still Very Much Up in the Air

Minnesota Senate: Still Very Unlikely, But Not Impossible

Could Upbeat Economic News Help Obama, Democrats?

Why Is the Media Ignoring Hillary Clinton?

Beware ‘Anti-Incumbent’ Election Hysteria

Mark Pryor: Still This Cycle’s Most Vulnerable Senator

Senate Majority Still Hangs in the Balance

2014 Senate Overview (June 6, 2014) Alabama – Kansas

2014 Senate Overview (June 6, 2014) Kentucky – New Mexico

2014 Senate Overview (June 6, 2014) North Carolina – Wyoming

Thad Cochran’s Mississippi

Can an Endorsement Hurt the Endorsed Candidate?

The Long Lost Tale of Phil Maloof

Ben Sasse, Mystery Man

The New World of Election Coverage and Analysis: A Case Study

And the Winner of the GOP’s Civil War Primary Is …

Warning: Senate Races Aren’t as Close as They Appear

Charleston Gazette Endorsements Need a Little Perspective

Obama’s Foreign Policy Impacts 2014 Elections — Really

Colorado Senate: Mark Udall Still Favored

Sebelius to the Senate? Maybe in the Land of Oz, But Not in Kansas

How to Handicap a Campaign’s Ground Game in 2014

Republicans to Maintain, and Potentially Grow, House Majority

2014 House Overview (April 11, 2014) Alabama – Indiana

2014 House Overview (April 11, 2014) Iowa – Oklahoma

2014 House Overview (April 11, 2014) Oregon – Wyoming

Meet 3 Divergent House Candidates Worth Watching

Mississippi Senator Thad Cochran, Underdog?

Democrats’ Growing Problems With Independent Voters on the Senate Map

Another Cycle, Another Poll Memo About Florida’s 2nd District

Road Gets Tougher for Democratic Majority in the Senate

2014 Senate Overview (March 14, 2014) Alabama – Kansas

2014 Senate Overview (March 14, 2014) Kentucky – New Mexico

2014 Senate Overview (March 14, 2014) North Carolina – Wyoming

Jolly Wins Special, Florida’s 13th Starts as Lean Republican for Midterm

Bill Clinton’s Real Impact on the Kentucky Senate Race

There’s No Good Time for the GOP on Immigration

How Jamestown Associates Adapted and Prospered

DCCC Is 2013 Fundraising Winner, but DNC Drops the Ball

For Democrats, It’s All About (Years) After November

Income Inequality: Democrats Have Some Work to Do

You Can’t Make This Stuff Up — and It’s Only January

Minimal Change in the House

2014 House Overview (January 17, 2014) Alabama – Indiana

2014 House Overview (January 17, 2014) Iowa – Oklahoma

2014 House Overview (January 17, 2014) Oregon – Wyoming

Rothenberg’s Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats

The Race Democrats Can’t Afford to Lose

Early TV Ads: Not New and Mostly a Waste of Money

What the Latest Iowa Poll Reveals About 2016 (Hint: Not Much)

A Whole New Ballgame in the Senate

2014 Senate Overview (December 18, 2013) Alabama – Kansas

2014 Senate Overview (December 18, 2013) Kentucky – New Mexico

2014 Senate Overview (December 18, 2013) North Carolina – Wyoming

Is Arkansas Really the Land of Opportunity for Democrats?

Awards for the Best and Worst of Politics in 2013

A Traditional Midterm Headache for Democrats

If Linda Lingle Could, Why Can’t Wendy Davis?

The Most Divided House District in New York

A Critical Few Weeks for Democrats? It Could Get Worse

Why Most Postmortems of Virginia’s Gubernatorial Race Are Wrong

Victory Is in the Eye of the Beholder in New Jersey, Virginia and Alabama

Two House Candidates Who Stumbled Over Simple Questions

In Louisiana, Democrats Doth Protest Too Much

6 Democratic House Candidates With Plenty of Potential

‘The Political Middle Has Disappeared’

The Most Important Election of 2014

For GOP, the Damage Is Undeniable

Is Ted Cruz Causing a Democratic Wave?

Shutdown Fever: Is the House in Play Now?

Republican Senate Hopefuls Vary in Quality, Approach

OMG!!! A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN. Or Maybe Not

Fight for House Could Hinge on GOP Civil War

How Bad Is the GOP Rift? Worse Than Democrats in the 1980s

Is South Carolina’s Nikki Haley in Trouble?

And for John Kasich’s Next Act in Politics …

Barack Obama’s Sad Sausage-Making Foreign Policy

Virginia Governor: Moves from Toss-Up to Lean Democrat

Obama’s Muddled Syria Politics

A Final Comment on Twitter and Election Forecasting

Twitter Can’t Yet Predict Elections

No, Really: It’s Still Too Early to Judge Senate Races

Senate ‘In Play,’ But the Devil Is in the Details

Incumbent Primary Challengers: Some Promising, Others Premature

Georgia Senate: Maybe, Potentially, Possibly … but Not Yet

New Jersey Senate: Over Before It Began?

As Portland (Maine) Goes, So Goes … the Nation?

Kentucky Senate: Process of Elimination

Montana Senate: Democrats Start From Scratch

Montana Senate Rating: Move or Reaffirm?

Despite Primary, Rounds Remains Favorite in South Dakota

Rating Alison Lundergan Grimes’ Chances in Kentucky

Texas Governor: Rick Perry Out, but …

It’s Uphill All the Way for Social Conservatives

Massachusetts’ Unspecial Senate Election

Gomez-Sanford Comparison on Obamacare Fails the Smell Test

Is the Senate More Volatile Than the House in 2014?

A Good Test of Exactly How Screwed Up Washington Is

Why We Never Moved the Massachusetts Senate Race to Toss-Up

Democrats Struggle for Traction in Early House Landscape

Why Emasculating the Speaker Is Rarely a Good Idea

When the Nation Has the Blahs …

What is a Pollster’s Obligation to a Campaign?

Two Democratic House Challengers Worth Watching

The Bachmann District: When a Retirement Changes Everything

Are Republicans Completely on Board With Gabriel Gomez?

Nebraska Senate: Osborn Likely to Announce Candidacy Soon

Friendly Fire: Parties Slam Some of Their Own

Todd Akin, Virginia Style?

In Massachusetts Senate PPP Poll, Read the Numbers — Not the Memo

Sea Change Ahead?

A GOP Senate Switch in South Dakota Looks More Likely

Obama’s New Political Reality Is Bad News for Dems in 2014

A Party Still in Denial?

Alaska Senate Poll: Far, Far Less Than Meets the Eye

Massachusetts Senate Special Election Race Still Looks Tight

Ranking Potential Flips for 2014 House Rematches

South Carolina 1 Special a Photo Finish?

History Lessons and the 2014 Midterms

Can Republicans Win Six Senate Seats and Control?

South Carolina 1: Parties Prepare to Spin Colbert Busch Win

Don’t Write Off Massachusetts Senate Race Just Yet

Pennsylvania 13: Daylin Leach- Liberal but Not Angry

South Carolina 1: GOP Throwing Another Race Away, Mark Sanford Style

The He Said, She Said of Gun Control: Get Over It

Putting First-Quarter Senate Fundraising Into Perspective

Landrieu’s Gun Vote: A Possible Political Explanation

How Will Divided Attention Affect Obama, Congress?

Steve King’s Cash Raises Eyebrows, Doubts About Senate Bid

Bob Perry: Present at the Creation of a Political Movement

The Most Vulnerable House Incumbent(s) of 2014

Cook’s Partisan Voting Index and the Decline of the Swing District

Five Takeaways From the New NBC/WSJ Poll

Scott Brown’s Potentially Silly Adventure

Pennsylvania Governor: Can Allyson Schwartz Make It to Harrisburg?

Most Vulnerable Senator of ‘14? Pryor by a Hair

Why Isn’t Maine’s Susan Collins Vulnerable?

Why Scott Brown Running in N.H. Is a Really, Really Bad Idea

New Jobs Numbers Raise Economic — and Political — Questions

South Carolina 1st District Poll: It’s All About Context

What State Political Trends Portend for the 2014 Midterms

Not All State Offices Are Political Launching Pads

The Fat Lady Sings on Gun Control, 2013 Edition

About That Terrible GOP Brand …

Senate: Mixing Apples and Oranges in West Virginia

History May Tell Us Little About GOP’s 2014 Senate Prospects

Is the House in Play? A District-by-District Assessment

GOP Doubles Down on Ryan to Change the Narrative

Why I Rate Michigan’s Senate Seat As ‘Safe’ for Democrats

Monthly Party Fundraising Reports Don’t Tell the Whole Story

Looking to 2016: Is It Still Either Bush or Rubio?

Can House Democrats Improve on ’12 Recruiting Flops?

The Fight for the House: Can Anyone Widen the Narrow Playing Field?

Governorships a Big Opportunity for Democrats in 2014

South Carolina 1: Colbert’s Sister an Underdog, but Worth Watching

Bloomberg’s Much Ado About Nothing Much

Can Obama Put the House In Play in 2014?

Democrats’ Economic Narrative Still Trumps GOP’s

Rubio and Jindal Are Allies Now, Adversaries Maybe Later

Barr Prepping For Georgia House Bid

Can Democrats Save Rockefeller’s Seat?

Youth Vote Could Seal GOP’s Minority Status

Obama Looms Large Over Democrats’ 2014 Fight to Retain the Senate

Is New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie Overhyped?

Have Republicans Turned the Corner on Strategy?

The Fight for the Senate: GOP Opportunities Abound

Senate Majority Leader’s Biography Badly Needs a Rewrite

The 2016 Presidential Race Begins Today

Who Is Least Likely to Lose the Virginia Gubernatorial Race?

Don’t Count Your Chickens Before the Eggs Have Even Been Laid

Are Democratic Insiders Missing the Boat in Massachusetts as Special Election Draws Closer?

Obama Wins First Round, With More Bouts to Come in 2013

The New Year Can’t Come Soon Enough for the GOP

Looking Back on 2012 Cycle’s Long and Winding Road

A Strange Election, With a Few Surprises

The Best and Worst of the 2012 Campaigns, Part II

Best and Worst Of the 2012 Campaigns: Part I

For the Fiscal Cliff Talks, It’s Back to the Future Again

Supermajority Within Reach for Senate Democrats

Hollywood Cachet Doesn’t Always Cash In

Drawing the Wrong Meaning About a House Race