Category Archive: Stuart Rothenberg

Should Down-Ballot Republicans Ready a ‘No Blank Check’ Strategy?

Maine Senate: Is Susan Collins Already Behind?

The Steyer Boomlet

How Third-Party Votes Sunk Clinton, What They Mean for Trump

When Trump Attacks, the Base Turns Out — For Both Parties

Kentucky Senate: Seriously, Are We Doing This Again?

What We Can Learn from the 2004 Presidential Race

How Many Ways is Michigan in Play in 2020?

Rothenberg: The 2020 Presidential Race is Still Tilting Democratic

8 Races That Will Likely Determine Control of the Senate

Oval Office Obsessions From a Crew With Little Experience, Much Ambition

Biden, Unions and the Politics of 2020

Arthur Finkelstein Reprised with GOP’s ‘Socialists’ Cries

Age, Change and the Democrats’ Challenge

Nancy Pelosi: The Democratic Party’s Undisputed Leader

Democrats Try to Snatch Defeat from the Jaws of Victory

Can a Senator be Nominated and Win the White House?

Democrats are Right to be Wary of Howard Schultz

More Presidential questions for the Democrats

What do Democrats Want in a President?

Maine Senate: How Vulnerable is Susan Collins?

Can Doug Jones win a full term in Alabama?

For Handicapping Midterm Races, Old Rules May No Longer Apply

Brett Kavanaugh and the Midterm Effect

The Wrong Fight at the Wrong Time for the GOP

Steve Bannon Is Right About the Midterms — Until He Isn’t

Why You Should Focus on Independents

3 Ways Nancy Pelosi Won’t Be Speaker Next Year

Famous Names on the Ballot? Sure, We Got ’Em

Rothenberg’s Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats

GOP Senate Targets Fade From View

Tennessee Senate: Why I’m Cautious About Phil Bredesen’s Prospects

Trump Numbers Are Up. And Down. But Really Unchanged.

Can a President Preaching Change Lead a Party of Incumbents?

When History Overtakes a Campaign Promise

How Can the GOP Turn Out Trump Voters?

Insiders See Democratic House Gains of 30-45 seats

Pennsylvania 18: A Red Flag for the GOP

Why the Gun Issue Has Shifted (It’s Not What You Think)

Will the Suburbs Flip the House? Watch These Seats

Running Against Pelosi May Not Save the GOP This Year

The Generic Is Falling! The Generic Is Falling!

The GOP Catch-22 — Donald Trump

The Stunning ‘Role of Government’ Numbers

Watch the Polls, Ignore the Post-Shutdown Chatter

It’s a Blue House Wave, but Not Yet a Senate One

The Democrats’ Savior

House Seats You Think Can’t Flip but Might

Can Democrats “Minnick” John Katko and Erik Paulsen?

Why You Should Focus on Independents from Now to the Midterms

Comparing Trump’s Job Ratings to Obama’s

What Happened to Mountain Republicans in the South?

For GOP, Health Care Bill Looks Riskier by the Day

Almost a Must-Win for Democrats in Georgia 6

The GOP’s Political Gamble on the Environment

Should Democrats Recruit Pragmatists or Progressives?

Are Wisconsin and Pennsylvania Changing Color?

Georgia 6: Runoff a Challenge for Both Parties

So Much for Deal Making

Even More Reason to Watch the House in 2018

Senate Landscape Not as Rosy for the GOP as It Once Was

Off-Year Governors Races Look Challenging for GOP

Everything is Great. Just Great.

Jason Kander May Have Made a Big Mistake

The GOP’s Long-Term Structural Senate Advantage

Fight Over Congressional Redistricting Begins With Key Gubernatorial Contests

The Voters Were Right About Donald Trump

Trump’s Fast Start Likely Puts the House in Play in 2018

Does the NRSC Have the Right Message for 2018?

The First Time I Met Illinois Senate Candidate Barack Obama

Trump Should Get Off to a Fast Start – But Will He?

After Trump, Do Campaigns Still Matter?

Comparing the GOP Divides, 1964 and 2016

Clinton Starts with a Decisive Advantage

Ryan Rides to the Rescue — But Not Until 2020

GOP’s Troubles Just Beginning

How Many Might Defect from Trump or Cruz?

Democrats Are Headed off Their Own Cliff

The Beginning of the End for Donald Trump

Maybe It Really Is the Media’s Fault

A Party Divided Is a Party Defeated—Usually

The Dust Clears: Hillary vs. Trump or Cruz

John Kasich’s Utterly Strange, Bizarre Campaign

Trump’s Electoral Math Doesn’t Add Up

Democratic Senate Takeover Probable, If Cruz or Trump Nominee

Cruz and Kasich Implausible Scenarios Keeping Trump on Top

Trump Is More Vulnerable Than You Think

Josh Mandel, Running for the Senate in Ohio…Again?

Who Will Win South Carolina Saturday? Just Look at the Voters

Michael Bloomberg’s Road Map to the White House

Can Rubio Follow Romney’s Path to the Nomination?

What Happened to Jeb Bush?

Revenge of the Old Fogies

Handicapping the GOP Race Past Iowa

It’s Official: Put a Fork in Kasich’s Candidacy

Hillary and Jeb: Destined to Play the Long Game?

Goldwater vs. McGovern in 2016?

Can Rubio Win Even If He Loses?

Predicting the Future and Other Delusions

Will ‘Electability’ Sink Trump?

And the GOP Nominee Will Be…

GOP’s Brand In More Trouble Than Its Candidates

Rothenberg’s End of the Year Awards

Who Is the Second Most Vulnerable Senate Incumbent in 2016?

Obama Still Channeling George W. Bush

Speaking Style Says Volumes About GOP Race

Paris Attacks Will Keep Obama and Democrats Playing Defense

Don’t Get Too Caught Up in the Trump and Carson ‘Panic’

Hillary Clinton and the Two-Term Jinx

Cory Gardner for Veep? Don’t Laugh

Fiorina Has No Clear Lane to GOP Nomination

Cruz and Jindal Wait Impatiently for Their Chances

Why the Next Month Is Critical for Bush

What the Heck Happened to Rand Paul?

Ryan Is Damned if He Does, and Damned if He Doesn’t

Why Republicans Need to Nominate Ted Cruz

Why I Keep Forgetting About John Kasich

Early Iowa Presidential Polls a Better Predictor Than National Ones

Does Voter Anger Explain the Success of Presidential Outsiders?

Young, Ambitious and Wealthy Isn’t Enough in Arkansas

Post-CNN Debate Thoughts

And the News Gets Worse for Clinton

A Significant Reassessment of the GOP Race

Louisiana Governor: Does David Vitter Have Something to Worry About?

Missing the Boat on the Big Political News

Donald Trump and the Fight for the Senate

Stop the Presses: O’Malley Nabs Swalwell Endorsement

One Last Hurrah for Joe Biden?

Chris Christie’s Conundrum

The Politics of Identity Politics

Who Will Benefit From the Issues Mix in 2016?

Bernie Sanders: The Latest Version of Howard Dean

The Donald Trump Impact: Not so Inevitable After All

When the Second Time Isn’t the Charm

Does Scott Walker Have What It Takes to Win in 2016?

The Iowa Straw Poll: Put a Stake Through Its Heart

Roll Call at the Big 6-0

Can Marco Rubio Save the GOP in 2016?

Party’s History of Establishment Picks Could Be Over

How to Fix an Unfair Presidential Debate System

Can Republicans Repeat an Upset in Colorado?

Why It’s a Mistake to Dismiss Bobby Jindal

Caveat Emptor, in Political Giving Too

How Much Trouble Is Richard Burr in?

Is John Kasich in the Top Tier in 2016?

What Kind of Senate Candidates Will Do Well in 2016?

Hillary Rodham Romney? Keep an Eye on O’Malley

‘Big Money’ and the 2016 Elections

Cruz’s Struggle: This Man Loves to Argue

The What Ifs of the 2016 GOP Presidential Race

The Young and the Restless of 2016

Adding Context to GOP Gains at State Level

Jeb Bush Can’t Be Nominated. Or Can He?

It’s Early: Why Pundits Shouldn’t Overreact

The Fearsome Foursome: Bush, Paul, Walker, Rubio

Mark Kirk Starts 2016 as an Underdog

What the ‘Big Ten’ Tells Republicans They Need in 2016

Why Electoral Waves Are Rarer in a Presidential Year

Pat Toomey Is a Strong Candidate. Will That Be Enough in 2016?

Rand Paul, Hillary Clinton Face Foreign Policy Challenges in 2016

Remembrance of Shutdowns Past

Past and Precedent: What Makes This Mississippi Special Election Interesting

Why Early Senate Polling Is Usually Useless

Is Ben Carson Really a Viable Presidential Candidate?

Not Your Father’s (or Grandfather’s) GOP Field

First Look: Can Democrats Win the Senate in 2016?

Why Hillary Clinton Should Fear Elizabeth Warren

Why Democrats Can’t Count on Voters Blaming a ‘Republican Congress’

Can Democrats Win the House in 2016?

Will Improving Economy Help Obama’s Case on Keystone?

What Happened to The Rothenberg Political Report?

Can Jeb Bush Win the GOP Nomination?

Jury Duty in Today’s America

Mary Landrieu’s Loss and the End of Ticket Splitting

Rothenberg’s End of the Year Awards for 2014

What Did — and Didn’t — Surprise Me This Cycle

The 2014 Elections: How’d We Do?

Some Lessons for Democratic Strategists and Other Observers

Mary Landrieu’s Tall Task in the Louisiana Runoff

2014: Plenty of Surprises, but None Totally Unexpected

Senate Ratings vs. Senate Expecations (Stu’s Sept. 8 Outlook)

Republicans (Still) Poised to Pick Up 6 to 8 Senate Seats

Election Eve Update: House Republicans on Edge of Good, Great Election Night

Election Eve Update: GOP Prospects Continue to Improve in the Senate

Ratings Change in Kentucky Senate

Obama’s Midterm Loss Record Could Make History

Senate Outlook: Advantage to Republicans

What Counts As a GOP Wave in 2014?

Ratings Change: New Hampshire Senate

Weak GOP Candidates May Need More Than a Good Year

South Dakota Senate Race Returning to Form

Not His Father’s Arkansas

Senate Outlook: Lots of Moving Pieces But Fundamentally Unchanged

Why Republicans Must Win the Senate in 2014

Ratings Change: Arkansas Senate from Toss-up/Tilt Republican to Lean Republican

Ratings Change: Alaska Senate from Pure Toss-up to Toss-up/Tilt Republican

Ratings Change: South Dakota Senate from Republican Favored to Lean Republican

What If I’m Wrong About GOP Flipping at Least 7 Seats?

Three Election Trends That Could End in 2014

Shift in Landscape Makes Bigger GOP House Gains Possible