Category Archive: Presidential

2024 Baselines: How the States Have Shifted

December 5, 2024

What Happened and What’s Next after the 2024 Elections?

November 7, 2024

Outlier or Early Warning? Late Iowa Poll Confounds

November 3, 2024

2024 Presidential Battlegrounds: Wisconsin

October 18, 2024

7 Initial Thoughts After the Vice Presidential Debate

October 2, 2024

Trump, Harris Face Off in Philadelphia with the White House on the Line

September 11, 2024

Presidential Update: RFK Jr. Exits the Race

August 29, 2024

2024 Presidential Battlegrounds: Arizona

August 29, 2024

Republican and Democratic Conventions Were the Same, But Different

August 29, 2024

Presidential: Walz Joins Harris on Democratic Ticket

August 7, 2024

Biden to Harris Transition Resets Presidential Race

July 26, 2024

Why Vance was Picked and What Could Happen to his Ohio Senate Seat

July 26, 2024

The Political Calculations and Consequences of Harris’s Vice Presidential Considerations

July 24, 2024

Presidential: Biden’s Exit Steers Election Into Uncharted Waters

July 21, 2024

Presidential: Trump’s Conviction is not the Time for Snap Political Analysis

May 31, 2024

2024 Presidential Battlegrounds: Pennsylvania

May 23, 2024

2024 Presidential Battlegrounds: Nevada

May 9, 2024

Presidential Rating Change: Nevada Shifts to Toss-up

May 8, 2024

2024 Presidential Battlegrounds: Georgia

April 26, 2024

Presidential: Biden and Trump Locked in Close Race

March 14, 2024

A Good Night for Trump and Polling, and Other Post-Iowa Thoughts

January 16, 2024

Setting the Stage for the GOP Debates

August 18, 2023

Tim Scott’s Iowa Play Is Working

June 26, 2023

Initial 2024 Presidential Battleground State Ratings

April 26, 2023

How Trump’s Legal Problems Could Affect Down Ballot Republicans

April 3, 2023

No One Knows for Sure How Trump’s Legal Problems Will Play Out

March 30, 2023

12 Dates that Define the 2022 Midterm Elections

November 7, 2022

Midterm Elections Could Set Another Turnout Record This Year

October 12, 2022

Biden’s Approval Rating Struggles Continue

April 14, 2022

If History’s a Guide, Biden Ain’t Getting Any Stronger

February 2, 2022

The Problem with our Politics is not Partisanship

December 8, 2021

Biden’s Job Rating Tumbles from Stable

December 3, 2021

Why the 2024 Presidential Race Will Start Later Than Expected

October 8, 2021

The One Thing Biden Can’t Afford to Lose

September 17, 2021

RIP, Rally ’Round the Flag

September 9, 2021

How Afghanistan Will (and Won’t) Matter in 2022 Midterms

September 2, 2021

While You Were Underground: A Political Update for Cicadas

June 17, 2021

Biden’s Job Rating and the 2022 Midterm Elections

June 4, 2021

Could Supreme Court Supercharge Midterms With Abortion Ruling?

June 3, 2021

Election Predictions Look Different (and Better) Now that All the Races are Over

January 22, 2021

Lessons and Challenges: Assessing the Performance of Polls in the 2020 Election

December 18, 2020

How Biden Rebuilt the Blue Wall

December 3, 2020

How Trump’s 2024 Candidacy Could Complicate GOP Chances in 2022

December 2, 2020

Trump’s Surprising Gains with Minority Voters

November 19, 2020

Presidential Snapshot in Time (October 30, 2020)

October 30, 2020

2020 Election Preview: Bracing for History

October 28, 2020

2020 Elections: Democrats Poised for a Sweep

October 16, 2020

Presidential Snapshot in Time (October 16, 2020)

October 16, 2020

Presidential Snapshot in Time (October 2, 2020)

October 2, 2020

Supreme Court Fight Isn’t Guaranteed Game-Changer

September 20, 2020

The Senate Deserves Your Attention

September 18, 2020

Presidential Battlegrounds: Texas

September 18, 2020

Presidential Snapshot in Time (September 18, 2020)

September 18, 2020

Presidential Battlegrounds: Georgia

September 4, 2020

Presidential Snapshot in Time (September 4, 2020)

September 4, 2020

Trump Needs a Convention Bounce

September 1, 2020

The Election in the Mirror Is Closer Than It Appears

August 21, 2020

Presidential Snapshot in Time (August 21, 2020)

August 21, 2020

Politicians are the Worst (But Most Important) Political Analysts

August 11, 2020

TV Ads Shape Presidential Battleground

July 20, 2020

by Steve Passwaiter

Electoral College Outlook: Biden Has the Edge

July 17, 2020

Presidential Snapshot in Time: July 10, 2020

July 10, 2020

Should Down-Ballot Republicans Ready a ‘No Blank Check’ Strategy?

July 10, 2020

The Russian Bounty Story is Not the Reset the Trump Campaign Needs

July 1, 2020

Presidential Snapshot in Time (June 26, 2020)

June 26, 2020

Elections Reach Key Moment

June 19, 2020

Presidential Snapshot in Time (June 12, 2020)

June 12, 2020

Presidential Snapshot in Time (May 29, 2020)

May 29, 2020

Presidential Snapshot in Time (May 15, 2020)

May 15, 2020

Six Months from Election Day, Expect the Expected

May 7, 2020

Presidential Snapshot in Time (May 1, 2020)

May 1, 2020

Five Key Takeaways from the Wisconsin Supreme Court Election

April 22, 2020

Questioning My Boldest Projection for 2020

April 13, 2020

Coronavirus and Campaign Ads: How the Pandemic Is Playing on TV

April 8, 2020

Amidst Coronavirus Crisis, Presidential Race Takes Shape

April 3, 2020

Lesson Learned? The State of Statewide Polling

March 25, 2020

Coronavirus and the Elections: 7 Key Questions

March 17, 2020

Presidential Battlegrounds: Arizona

March 6, 2020

Eight Thoughts After Charleston Debate

February 26, 2020

RIP, Election Night

February 21, 2020

Five Thoughts After the Las Vegas Democratic Debate

February 20, 2020

Presidential Battlegrounds: Pennsylvania

February 7, 2020

Was Hillary Clinton a Terrible Candidate?

February 3, 2020

Presidential Battlegrounds: Michigan

January 24, 2020

Is Trump really the MVP of the GOP?

January 23, 2020

The Steyer Boomlet

January 21, 2020

Presidential Battlegrounds: Wisconsin

December 19, 2019

2019 Ad Spending Offers Clues to 2020

December 19, 2019

by Steve Passwaiter

Impeachment’s No ‘Game Changer’ and Other Pet Peeves

December 17, 2019

Don’t Forget Arizona and Minnesota in Presidential Contest

December 6, 2019

Mostly Smoke, and Little Fire, From Republicans to Democrats on Impeachment

October 11, 2019

Luke Skywalker and the Politics of Impeachment

September 26, 2019

Trump Vulnerability in a Primary is More Fiction than Fact

September 4, 2019

Trump Missing an Opportunity on Guns

August 26, 2019

How Third-Party Votes Sunk Clinton, What They Mean for Trump

August 15, 2019

When Trump Attacks, the Base Turns Out — For Both Parties

July 25, 2019

What We Can Learn from the 2004 Presidential Race

July 12, 2019

Campaign Ad Spending 2020: What’s Your Number?

June 26, 2019

by Steve Passwaiter

Rothenberg: The 2020 Presidential Race is Still Tilting Democratic

June 21, 2019

Upcoming Debates an Important Next Stage in Presidential Campaign

June 14, 2019

Why a GOP Super PAC is Bothering to Attack Steve Bullock’s Bid for President

June 7, 2019

Oval Office Obsessions From a Crew With Little Experience, Much Ambition

May 24, 2019

Biden, Unions and the Politics of 2020

May 16, 2019

Arthur Finkelstein Reprised with GOP’s ‘Socialists’ Cries

May 7, 2019

Republicans Have a Post-Trump Identity Crisis on the Horizon

April 30, 2019

Amidst Breaking News, Expect the Status Quo to Prevail

April 19, 2019

How to Survive and Thrive in Iowa — Words of Wisdom from Former Staffers

April 18, 2019

How Gephardt’s 2004 Iowa Team Boosted the Democratic Party

April 17, 2019

Age, Change and the Democrats’ Challenge

April 9, 2019

When It Comes to Younger Voters, Watch the Margin of Victory

March 29, 2019

Democrats Try to Snatch Defeat from the Jaws of Victory

March 27, 2019

How Democrats Could Lose the Popular Vote

March 22, 2019

Can a Senator be Nominated and Win the White House?

March 13, 2019

An Early Look at the 2020 Presidential Race

March 8, 2019

Democrats are Right to be Wary of Howard Schultz

February 20, 2019

What do Democrats Want in a President?

February 7, 2019

A Few Thoughts on the State of the Union Address

February 7, 2019

5 reasons why there’s still no end to the shutdown

January 14, 2019

North Carolina: Blue Wave Steered Clear of ‘Blue Moon’ Election

December 14, 2018

by Leah Askarinam

Post-Midterms Baseline and Vote Above Replacement (VAR) Update

December 14, 2018

Expect Record Turnout in 2020

December 13, 2018

The 2018 Midterms as the Buffet Election

December 3, 2018

Goodbye Midterm Dynamic, Hello Presidential Politics

November 29, 2018

Republican Migraines and the Midterm Elections

October 14, 2018

Brett Kavanaugh and the Midterm Effect

July 16, 2018

The Wrong Fight at the Wrong Time for the GOP

June 29, 2018

Steve Bannon Is Right About the Midterms — Until He Isn’t

June 14, 2018

Trump Numbers Are Up. And Down. But Really Unchanged.

April 23, 2018

Can a President Preaching Change Lead a Party of Incumbents?

April 13, 2018

Why the Gun Issue Has Shifted (It’s Not What You Think)

March 13, 2018

The GOP Catch-22 — Donald Trump

February 14, 2018

The Stunning ‘Role of Government’ Numbers

February 8, 2018

Watch the Polls, Ignore the Post-Shutdown Chatter

January 29, 2018

The Democrats’ Savior

January 16, 2018

No One Is Afraid of a Government Shutdown

December 8, 2017

Comparing Trump’s Job Ratings to Obama’s

October 26, 2017

Why ‘Single-Payer’ May Not Be Republicans’ Saving Grace in 2018

July 21, 2017

A Bipartisan Health Care Bill Will Be Tougher to Pass than a Partisan One

July 19, 2017

How Divided Parties Survive and Thrive

June 23, 2017

The GOP’s Political Gamble on the Environment

June 4, 2017

Lessons for Trump Detractors, Members of Congress From a Loyalty Expert

May 18, 2017

Don’t Trust Politicians Who Say They Aren’t Running for President

May 5, 2017

Why Republicans Don’t Fear a Shutdown, But Should

April 26, 2017

Are Wisconsin and Pennsylvania Changing Color?

April 25, 2017

Reason for Democratic Optimism, But Health Care Won’t be Enough

April 7, 2017

So Much for Deal Making

April 5, 2017

Everything is Great. Just Great.

March 9, 2017

Jason Kander May Have Made a Big Mistake

February 22, 2017

Congressional Republicans Should Be Afraid of Steve Bannon

February 14, 2017

The Voters Were Right About Donald Trump

February 2, 2017

Women’s March: A Moment or a Movement?

January 27, 2017

How President Trump Can Avoid President Obama’s Biggest Mistake

January 25, 2017

Does the NRSC Have the Right Message for 2018?

January 24, 2017

The Certainty of Death, Taxes, and White Evangelicals

January 19, 2017

The First Time I Met Illinois Senate Candidate Barack Obama

January 17, 2017

Trump Should Get Off to a Fast Start – But Will He?

January 10, 2017

Pelosi Remains But ‘Winter is Coming’ for Democrats

December 7, 2016

Donald Trump, Golden Shepherds, and the 2016 Election

December 2, 2016

Under Next Electoral Map, Trump Would Still Have Won

December 1, 2016

Does the Country Even Want to Come Together?

November 14, 2016

Ratings Change: Obama State Shifts to Trump

November 7, 2016

The Presidential Race Someone Has to Win

November 3, 2016

Democrats Look to Expand Presidential Map

October 21, 2016

It’s Time for Newspapers to Stop Endorsing Candidates

October 19, 2016

Clinton Tightens Grip on Presidential Victory

October 14, 2016

Republicans’ Agonizing Wait for Latest Diagnosis

October 11, 2016

New Presidential Baseline After First Debate?

September 30, 2016

Presidential Race Tightens

September 16, 2016

After Trump, Do Campaigns Still Matter?

September 2, 2016

Clinton Keeps Distinct Edge in Presidential Race

September 2, 2016

New Normal Isn’t Friendly to Trump

August 19, 2016

The Most Important Question to Ask Trump Defectors

August 12, 2016

The Country is More Divided Than You Think

August 5, 2016

What I Learned Outside the Convention Bubble

August 3, 2016

Clinton Campaign Readying National Olympic Ad Blitz

July 27, 2016

Utah No Longer Safe for Donald Trump

July 1, 2016

Republicans Need Gary Johnson to Save the Senate

June 30, 2016

Why Won’t Bernie Go Away?

June 17, 2016

The Strategy That Could Have Taken Trump Down

June 3, 2016

Comparing the GOP Divides, 1964 and 2016

May 24, 2016

Clinton Begins General Election With Advantage

May 19, 2016

Don’t Assume Paul Ryan Will be Speaker Next Year

May 19, 2016

Clinton Starts with a Decisive Advantage

May 13, 2016

Donald Trump is the GOP Nominee. Now What?

May 5, 2016

Ryan Rides to the Rescue — But Not Until 2020

May 4, 2016

GOP’s Troubles Just Beginning

April 29, 2016

How Many Might Defect from Trump or Cruz?

April 22, 2016

Democrats Are Headed off Their Own Cliff

April 15, 2016

The Beginning of the End for Donald Trump

April 7, 2016

Maybe It Really Is the Media’s Fault

April 5, 2016

A Party Divided Is a Party Defeated—Usually

March 30, 2016

The Dust Clears: Hillary vs. Trump or Cruz

March 25, 2016

John Kasich’s Utterly Strange, Bizarre Campaign

March 24, 2016

Trump’s Electoral Math Doesn’t Add Up

March 16, 2016

6 Districts Where the Fight for the House and President Converge

March 7, 2016

Four Early Lessons From the Presidential Race

March 4, 2016

The Case for a Crowded Field to Defeat Trump

March 3, 2016

Cruz and Kasich Implausible Scenarios Keeping Trump on Top

March 1, 2016