Analysis

1217 Results

Missouri Senate: Remains Solid Republican for Now

Republican Sen. Roy Blunt announced he will not seek re-election in Missouri, setting off a scramble to replace him on the Republican side and leaving Democrats with only a marginally better takeover opportunity at this early stage of the cycle. Blunt is the fifth Republican senator to announce he will not seek re-election, joining Pat […]

Candidate Conversation: Mark Walker (R)

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How the Lack of Ticket-Splitting Leads to Gridlock

It’s easy to blame politicians for gridlock on Capitol Hill. It’s the voters, however, and the lack of ticket-splitting, that are key to the lack of compromise. For some reason, people act surprised that a divided country is reflected in a divided Congress. The bottom line is that there are fewer and fewer mismatched districts […]

Candidate Conversation: Tom Nelson (D)

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Recent History Shows Senate Retirements Don’t Tell Us Squat

Sen. Richard Shelby’s decision not to seek re-election in Alabama fueled multiple narratives: Republicans in disarray in the wake of President Donald Trump’s loss; a fatalist mentality that the GOP is destined to remain in the Senate minority. Just a quick browse through recent history, however, shows that it’s best not to draw too many […]

Ohio Senate: Open Season

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Candidate Conversation – Sarah Godlewski (D)

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Ohio Senate: Portman Decision Complicates Race

Republican Sen. Rob Portman is not seeking re-election in Ohio, giving Democrats a glimmer of hope in a seat that didn’t look all that competitive at this early stage of the 2022 cycle.  The senator’s comments about “partisan gridlock” will add to the narrative that Republicans are in disarray in the wake of President Donald […]

Vote Above Replacement: 2020 Senate Elections

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Election Predictions Look Different (and Better) Now that All the Races are Over

More than two months later, the 2020 elections are still handing out lessons. The latest: Don’t judge election projections until all the results have hatched. Lost in the aftermath of the siege on the U.S. Capitol was the fact that Democrats won two Senate runoffs in Georgia. Not only does control of the Senate have […]