Analysis

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Hawaii Senate: Open Seat Remains Safe for Now

At 86 years old, Sen. Daniel Akaka’s (D) retirement isn’t terribly surprising and his timing might be perfect for his party. Democrats will defend Akaka’s open seat in 2012 while sharing a ballot with Hawaii’s native son, President Barack Obama. In 2008, Obama defeated John McCain 72%-27%. Even though Obama isn’t as popular now as he was back…

New Mexico Senate: Open Seat Move to Tilt

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Nebraska Senate: Cornhusker Kick-Out?

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Indiana Senate: Legend of the Fall

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Webb Underscores Democrats’ 2012 Challenge

Note: This column appeared in Roll Call before Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl announced his retirement. Spring training hasn’t even started for the 2011 baseball season, but it’s already clear that control of the Senate is up for grabs this election cycle. Almost before the cycle even began, Democratic strategists were being forced on the defensive by early Republican…

Ratings Changes in Two New Senate Open Seats

Two Senate retirements this week pull two seats into more competitive categories. In Virginia, Sen. Jim Webb’s retirement is a significant problem for Democrats. Webb would have been difficult to paint as a Washington insider, but now that he’s not seeking a second term, his open seat becomes more difficult to hold. Former governor/current Democratic National Committee Chairman…

Montana Senate: Rehberg Moves Race to Toss-Up

With Cong. Denny Rehberg set to announce his candidacy for the U.S. Senate, Republicans got their best possible candidate to take on first-term Sen. Jon Tester (D). Rehberg has been elected statewide in Montana’s at-large congressional district for a decade and early public polling shows him running even or slightly ahead of the incumbent. For now, we’re moving…

2012 Senate Overview (January 28, 2011)

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This Is a Time to Reflect on What Is Important

The political fallout from the horrific shootings in Tucson, Ariz., on Saturday was predictable. Members of Congress called for a return to civility, gun control advocates used the tragedy to call for more gun control and some liberals blamed the violence on conservatives. So what else is new? Of course, the call for more restraint and civility often…

2012 Senate Landscape Is Far From Finalized

Senate race ratings make good headlines and cable news fodder, but two years out from an election, they can be poor predictors of what’s to come. Looking back over the past decade, plenty of seats deemed safe in the off-year could be found later in the “lost” column while some tossup races didn’t even turn out to be…

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