Welcome aboard the weird electoral expectations train. Next stop: New Hampshire.Oddly, some observers interpreted the narrowest of wins in Iowa by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney as a loss — a strange conclusion given that six months earlier, almost every veteran political analyst and handicapper was saying that Romney was wise to avoid the evangelical-dominated […]
“Romney surges in Iowa on issue of electability” proclaimed the odd headline on the front page of Thursday’s Washington Post, citing a late December CNN/Time/ORC International poll showing Mitt Romney at 25 percent, leading Rep. Ron Paul (22 percent) and former Sen. Rick Santorum (16 percent) in the important initial GOP test. Two earlier CNN/Time/ORC […]
Each year I try to give my own awards for the best and the worst, the silliest and the oddest. There were plenty of strange developments this year — heck, the entire Republican race for president has bordered on the bizarre — so there is more than enough material. This year, each category includes, where […]
Mitt Romney’s ceiling in Iowa doesn’t look like glass. It looks like reinforced concrete. Even after three conservative candidates rose and fell in polling in Iowa, the former Massachusetts governor still can’t get above the 25 percent mark in the crucial early caucus state. “That really says something about how low his ceiling is,” one […]
“Regrets, I’ve had a few,” Frank Sinatra sings in one of his signature songs, “My Way,” and that should be a sentiment that every political analyst, handicapper and forecaster feels as he or she looks back on a body of work from the previous 12 months. Few people like to admit mistakes, but when you […]
It’s hard to say exactly when the Occupy Wall Street movement fizzled, but so far it has failed to become the politically potent force that the tea party was during the 2010 election cycle. But even if the Occupy movement has not yet broadened its appeal or redefined our politics, it could still be a […]
With 11 months to go until the 2012 elections, the fight for control of the Senate already seems to boil down to a dozen states. If, as many believe, we have entered a new era of parliamentary-type voting, when ticket-splitting becomes increasingly rare and the top of the ticket defines downballot choices for most voters, […]
Republicans are now chewing over their party’s potential presidential nominee for 2012, and a dramatic division has become apparent between GOP insiders and the grass roots. But it’s not primarily a difference of ideology, though there is an element of that. Instead, the split centers on electability. So far, three-quarters of the party’s grass roots […]
Presidential debates, says NBC News Political Director and Chief White House Correspondent Chuck Todd, are now part of the winnowing process. Instead of going to a small state and wooing caucus-goers, Republican presidential hopefuls are going on national cable to see if they can resonate with the voters. With 26 GOP debates currently scheduled between […]