Anything can happen in November. At least that’s what we’re supposed to say. But is it really true? Even in the middle of a global pandemic and after a historic impeachment process, the political environment hasn’t changed dramatically over the last year and a half. The coronavirus has crippled the economy and locked down the […]
With the Democratic primary in the rearview mirror, we can focus on the matchup between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden with a clear conscience. Over the next six months, there will be a flurry of head-to-head polls, and handicapping the general election will assuredly rely upon public opinion polling. But virtually any avid survey […]
There’s no love lost between Justin Amash and House Republicans, but the Michigan congressman gave the GOP a parting gift with his run for president. Amash’s departure from the Republican Party last year decreased the number of seats Republicans currently control in the House by one and increased the number of seats Republicans need to […]
Predicting election outcomes can be a fraught business. You don’t have to look further than the 2016 presidential race to see that. But for some races, one candidate has such an advantage — due to the constituency’s partisan lean, candidate quality, or other factors — that their path to office is nearly assured. Those are […]
We are in rarely charted territory, but not for the most obvious reason. With the COVID-19 pandemic having upended every facet of our society, regular public polling data is now being used as both a measure of public opinion and a lagging indicator of economic and epidemiological trends. But amid the frenzied rush to make […]
A week ago, challenger Jill Karofsky won a hotly contested Wisconsin Supreme Court election, defeating incumbent Daniel Kelly. Even though it was a state race, the results were the latest evidence that the Badger State will be a presidential battleground in November. Although Wisconsin judicial elections are technically nonpartisan, Karofsky was known as the liberal […]