Democrats defied expectations by expanding their Senate majority in 2022 — but what exactly were those expectations? And Republicans nominated a number of underwhelming candidates, but how much did they actually underperform? Vote Above Replacement (VAR) can provide some empirical context to 2022 narratives. VAR measures the strength of a political candidate relative to a […]
Heading into the 2022 midterms, Republicans were confident that a Red Wave would sweep them back into power in Congress. Ultimately, not only did a Red Wave fail to materialize, but Republicans barely cleared the lowest of bars they had set for themselves at the beginning of the cycle: winning back the House of Representatives. […]
Only the third Black member of Congress to be elected from Virginia, the late Rep. Donald McEachin left a long legacy of public service after representing the Richmond area in Congress and the Virginia state Legislature since the mid-1990s. In the weeks following the congressman’s death, several names emerged as contenders, though only two candidates […]
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s decision to leave the Democratic Party doesn’t have an immediate impact on Democrats’ control of the Senate — but it does complicate the 2024 battleground race in Arizona. Since the senator said she will not caucus with Republicans, her decision will not affect Democrats’ new majority. If she caucuses with Democrats (similar […]
With the 2022 midterm elections (almost) in the books, we can begin putting the results into the broader context of past results to see how much states and districts shifted. One of the best ways to identify shifts in partisanship is through our Baseline metric. Baseline captures a state or congressional district’s political performance by […]