Analysis

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A Detailed Analysis of Ohio’s New Congressional Map

In a major departure from normal redistricting practices, four states have now approved new congressional maps for the 2026 midterms. (A fifth, California, looks like it will enact a new map via ballot measure next week, and several other states are making moves to redraw as well.) But the latest to do so is not like the others.…

A Detailed Analysis of North Carolina’s New Congressional Map

If there’s one state that’s accustomed to mid-decade redistricting, it’s North Carolina. The Tar Heel State drew itself new congressional districts for the 2016, 2020, 2022, and 2024 elections — and so it’s not too surprising that it’s jumping on the bandwagon of the 2026 cycle’s gerrymandering wars as well. As part of President Donald Trump’s push for…

Report Shorts (Oct. 23, 2025)

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Maine 2: Turning LePage on Golden?

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Arizona 6: Send the Marine

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Report Shorts (Oct. 9, 2025)

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Arizona 1: Open Seat Shifts to Toss-up

One of the most competitive House races in the country has gotten a little more complicated with Republican Rep. David Schweikert announcing that he won’t seek re-election to Arizona’s 1st District.  After winning by less than a point in 2022 and 4 points in 2024, Schweikert was near the top of Democratic target lists once again from his…

Tennessee 7 Special: Upset in the Making?

Throughout 2017 and into early 2018, election watchers kept seeing the same movie over and over: Special elections in heavily Republican areas were way closer than they had any right to be, as Donald Trump’s presidency galvanized Democratic voters and put several normally safe Republican districts into play. Eight years later, Trump is back in the White House…

A Detailed Analysis of Missouri’s New Congressional Map

The unprecedented redistricting arms race of 2025 continues apace. After Texas Republicans redrew their state’s congressional map with the goal of flipping from three to five House seats, California Democrats voted to place their own new congressional map before voters this November that would do the same thing. Now, Missouri Republicans are getting in on the act: This…

Michigan 7: Longing for Lansing

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