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Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980
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2026
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2025 Baseline
What's This?
D +0.9
D: 49.7%, R: 48.8%
2028 Election
Class III
View Seat
R
Ron Johnson
VAR
1.9
Past Elections
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Analysis
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Report Shorts (Sept. 25, 2025)
September 25, 2025
by
Jacob Rubashkin
Report Shorts (March 20, 2025)
March 20, 2025
by
Jacob Rubashkin
2024 Senate Results Recap
November 15, 2024
by
Jacob Rubashkin
Senate Report Shorts (October 31, 2024)
October 31, 2024
by
Jacob Rubashkin
Senate Report Shorts (October 10, 2024)
October 10, 2024
by
Jacob Rubashkin
Senate Report Shorts (September 26, 2024)
September 26, 2024
by
Jacob Rubashkin
Senate Report Shorts (August 16, 2024)
August 16, 2024
by
Jacob Rubashkin
2024 Senate Overview (May 9, 2024): Pennsylvania – Wyoming
May 9, 2024
by
Jacob Rubashkin
Wisconsin Senate: GOP Puts Hope in Hovde
March 14, 2024
by
Jacob Rubashkin
Report Shorts (Feb. 23, 2024)
February 23, 2024
by
Jacob Rubashkin
Ratings
2026
January 9, 2025
Not Up This Cycle
January 6, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2024
September 26, 2024
Tilt Democrat
July 28, 2023
Lean Democrat
January 6, 2023
Battleground Democrat
January 6, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2022
April 1, 2022
Tilt Republican
January 7, 2022
Lean Republican
January 8, 2021
Battleground Republican
2020
January 4, 2019
Not Up This Cycle
2018
October 26, 2018
Solid Democrat
July 6, 2018
Lean Democrat
January 13, 2017
Tilt Democrat
January 13, 2017
Not Up This Cycle
2016
November 3, 2016
Tilt Democrat
September 30, 2016
Lean Democrat
June 3, 2016
Tilt Democrat
January 9, 2015
Toss-up
2014
January 25, 2013
Not Up This Cycle
2012
September 28, 2012
Toss-up
September 3, 2012
Tilt Republican
May 18, 2012
Toss-up
August 1, 2011
Tilt Democrat
May 13, 2011
Lean Democrat
January 28, 2011
Solid Democrat
January 1, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
2010
October 15, 2010
Lean Republican
September 24, 2010
Tilt Republican
August 9, 2010
Toss-up
July 23, 2010
Tilt Democrat
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle
June 24, 2010
Likely Democrat
More
Baselines
About
2025
+0.9
D 49.7
,
R 48.8
2024
+0.9
2022
+1.1
2020
+0.5
2018
+0.1
2016
+3.3
2014
+2.8
