Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Arizona
Senate III

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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No Rating

2025 Baseline

What's This?
R +1.3
D: 49.1%, R: 50.4%

2028 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

Unopposed

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Past Elections

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Analysis

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Gubernatorial Overview (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan Gonzales & Inshara Ali

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

House Overview (March 12, 2026): Alabama – Iowa

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Feb. 19, 2026)

February 19, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2025): Alabama – Iowa

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
January 6, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2024
January 6, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2022
September 23, 2022
Tilt Democrat
January 7, 2022
Toss-up
January 8, 2021
Battleground Democrat
2020
July 10, 2020
Tilt Democrat
January 4, 2019
Toss-up
2018
November 1, 2018
Not Up This Cycle
January 13, 2017
Not Up This Cycle
2016
September 30, 2016
Likely Republican
September 2, 2016
Lean Republican
November 6, 2015
Likely Republican
May 26, 2015
Lean Republican
January 9, 2015
Likely Republican
2012
January 1, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
2010
June 24, 2010
Solid Republican

Baselines

About
2025+1.3D 49.1, R 50.4
2024
+1.3
2022
+1.8
2020
+3.5
2018
+4.9
2016
+9.4
2014
+8.8