Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Arizona
Senate

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Not Up This Cycle

2025 Baseline

What's This?
R +1.3
D: 49.1%, R: 50.4%

Class I

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Class III

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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APR
6
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
JUL
21
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Report Shorts (Feb. 19, 2026)

February 19, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Sept. 25, 2025)

September 25, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (May 1, 2025)

May 1, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (March 20, 2025)

March 20, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Jan. 24, 2025)

January 24, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
January 9, 2025
Not Up This Cycle
January 6, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2024
October 10, 2024
Lean Democrat
May 9, 2024
Tilt Democrat
July 28, 2023
Toss-up
January 6, 2023
Battleground Independent
January 6, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2022
September 23, 2022
Tilt Democrat
January 7, 2022
Toss-up
January 8, 2021
Battleground Democrat
2020
July 10, 2020
Tilt Democrat
January 4, 2019
Not Up This Cycle
January 4, 2019
Toss-up
2018
November 1, 2018
Tilt Democrat
November 1, 2018
Not Up This Cycle
October 25, 2017
Toss-up
September 29, 2017
Toss-up
August 18, 2017
Tilt Republican
July 7, 2017
Lean Republican
January 13, 2017
Likely Republican
January 13, 2017
Not Up This Cycle
2016
September 30, 2016
Likely Republican
September 2, 2016
Lean Republican
November 6, 2015
Likely Republican
May 26, 2015
Lean Republican
January 9, 2015
Likely Republican
2014
January 25, 2013
Not Up This Cycle
2012
October 5, 2012
Tilt Republican
February 24, 2012
Lean Republican
August 1, 2011
Likely Republican
February 10, 2011
Lean Republican
January 28, 2011
Solid Republican
January 1, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
2010
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle
June 24, 2010
Solid Republican

Baselines

About
2025+1.3D 49.1, R 50.4
2024
+1.3
2022
+1.8
2020
+3.5
2018
+4.9
2016
+9.4
2014
+8.8