Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

North Carolina
President

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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2025 Baseline

What's This?
R +2.3
D: 48.6%, R: 50.9%
October 22, 2025
The GOP-controlled North Carolina legislature redrew the state's congressional map in October 2025 to help Republicans gain a seat in the fall.
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2026 Election

Incumbents

  • Vacant

Candidates

Unopposed

Past Elections

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Calendar

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DEC
19
2025
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAR
3
2026
Primary Election Day
MAY
12
2026
Primary Runoff
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Presidential Snapshot in Time (October 30, 2020)

October 30, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

2020 Election Preview: Bracing for History

October 28, 2020
by Jacob Rubashkin

Presidential Snapshot in Time (October 2, 2020)

October 2, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

TV Ads Shape Presidential Battleground

July 20, 2020
by Steve Passwaiter

Electoral College Outlook: Biden Has the Edge

July 17, 2020
by Nathan Gonzales

Presidential Snapshot in Time: July 10, 2020

July 10, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Presidential Snapshot in Time (June 26, 2020)

June 26, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Presidential Snapshot in Time (June 12, 2020)

June 12, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Presidential Snapshot in Time (May 29, 2020)

May 29, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Presidential Snapshot in Time (May 1, 2020)

May 1, 2020
by Bradley Wascher

Ratings

2024
August 29, 2024
Toss-up
August 29, 2024
Toss-up
April 26, 2023
Tilt Republican
April 26, 2023
Tilt Republican
2020
October 28, 2020
Tilt Democrat
October 28, 2020
Tilt Democrat
March 8, 2019
Toss-up
March 8, 2019
Toss-up
2016
October 21, 2016
Tilt Democrat
October 21, 2016
Tilt Democrat
May 19, 2016
Toss-up
May 19, 2016
Toss-up
March 6, 2015
Tilt Republican
March 6, 2015
Tilt Republican
2012
March 9, 2012
Lean Republican
February 24, 2012
Lean Democrat
January 27, 2012
Toss-up
January 27, 2012
Lean Republican
January 27, 2012
Toss-up
December 16, 2011
Toss-up
December 16, 2011
Lean Republican
December 16, 2011
Toss-up
December 2, 2011
Lean Republican

Baselines

About
2025+2.3D 48.6, R 50.9
2024
+2.3
2022
+3.0
2020
+2.2
2018
+1.2
2016
+2.1
2014
+2.5