Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Pennsylvania
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Current Rating

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Solid D

2025 Baseline

What's This?
D +1.7
D: 49.7%, R: 48%

2026 Election

Incumbents

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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MAR
10
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAY
19
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

See All

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

Report Shorts (May 21, 2026)

May 21, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Alabama, Oregon Primary Results

May 20, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

House Overview (March 12, 2026): North Carolina – Wisconsin

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Pennsylvania 8: Paiging the Incumbent

February 5, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2026): North Carolina – Wisconsin

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Sept. 11, 2025): North Carolina – Wisconsin

September 11, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

House Report Shorts (July 24, 2025)

July 24, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Pennsylvania 10: Familiar Faces

July 10, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (July 10, 2025)

July 10, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
June 12, 2026
Solid Democrat
June 12, 2026
Toss-up
May 21, 2026
Toss-up
December 5, 2025
Lean Republican
December 5, 2025
Solid Democrat
December 5, 2025
Solid Democrat
December 5, 2025
Solid Democrat
December 5, 2025
Solid Democrat
December 5, 2025
Solid Democrat
December 5, 2025
Toss-up
December 5, 2025
Tilt Republican
December 5, 2025
Solid Republican
December 5, 2025
Tilt Republican
December 5, 2025
Solid Republican
December 5, 2025
Solid Democrat
December 5, 2025
Solid Republican
December 5, 2025
Solid Republican
December 5, 2025
Solid Republican
December 5, 2025
Solid Republican
December 5, 2025
Likely Democrat
September 11, 2025
Tilt Republican
June 30, 2025
Solid Democrat
March 7, 2025
Likely Republican
March 7, 2025
Solid Democrat
March 7, 2025
Solid Democrat
March 7, 2025
Solid Democrat
March 7, 2025
Solid Democrat
March 7, 2025
Solid Democrat
March 7, 2025
Toss-up
March 7, 2025
Lean Republican
March 7, 2025
Solid Republican
March 7, 2025
Tilt Republican
March 7, 2025
Solid Republican
March 7, 2025
Solid Democrat
March 7, 2025
Solid Republican
March 7, 2025
Solid Republican
March 7, 2025
Solid Republican
March 7, 2025
Solid Republican
March 7, 2025
Likely Democrat
2024
September 12, 2024
Tilt Republican
August 29, 2024
Likely Democrat
January 3, 2024
Lean Republican
December 15, 2023
Lean Republican
December 1, 2023
Likely Republican
December 1, 2023
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2023
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2023
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2023
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2023
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2023
Tilt Democrat
December 1, 2023
Tilt Democrat
December 1, 2023
Solid Republican
December 1, 2023
Likely Republican
December 1, 2023
Solid Republican
December 1, 2023
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2023
Solid Republican
December 1, 2023
Solid Republican
December 1, 2023
Solid Republican
December 1, 2023
Solid Republican
December 1, 2023
Lean Democrat
March 10, 2023
Likely Republican
March 10, 2023
Solid Democrat
March 10, 2023
Solid Democrat
March 10, 2023
Solid Democrat
March 10, 2023
Solid Democrat
March 10, 2023
Solid Democrat
March 10, 2023
Tilt Democrat
March 10, 2023
Tilt Democrat
March 10, 2023
Solid Republican
March 10, 2023
Likely Republican
March 10, 2023
Solid Republican
March 10, 2023
Solid Democrat
March 10, 2023
Solid Republican
March 10, 2023
Solid Republican
March 10, 2023
Solid Republican
March 10, 2023
Solid Republican
March 10, 2023
Lean Democrat
2022
November 3, 2022
Likely Democrat
August 25, 2022
Solid Republican
August 25, 2022
Toss-up
March 11, 2022
Likely Republican
March 11, 2022
Solid Democrat
March 11, 2022
Solid Democrat
March 11, 2022
Solid Democrat
March 11, 2022
Solid Democrat
March 11, 2022
Solid Democrat
March 11, 2022
Toss-up
March 11, 2022
Toss-up
March 11, 2022
Solid Republican
March 11, 2022
Solid Republican
March 11, 2022
Solid Republican
March 11, 2022
Solid Democrat
March 11, 2022
Solid Republican
March 11, 2022
Solid Republican
March 11, 2022
Solid Republican
March 11, 2022
Solid Republican
March 11, 2022
Tilt Democrat
2020
October 28, 2020
Solid Democrat
October 16, 2020
Solid Democrat
October 16, 2020
Toss-up
October 1, 2020
Lean Republican
September 18, 2020
Solid Democrat
September 18, 2020
Solid Republican
December 6, 2019
Tilt Republican
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Likely Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Republican
December 6, 2019
Tilt Republican
December 6, 2019
Solid Republican
December 6, 2019
Solid Republican
December 6, 2019
Solid Republican
December 6, 2019
Solid Republican
December 6, 2019
Solid Republican
December 6, 2019
Solid Republican
December 6, 2019
Likely Democrat
June 14, 2019
Solid Republican
April 5, 2019
Solid Republican
February 15, 2019
Tilt Republican
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Likely Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Republican
February 15, 2019
Tilt Republican
February 15, 2019
Solid Republican
February 15, 2019
Solid Republican
February 15, 2019
Solid Republican
February 15, 2019
Solid Republican
February 15, 2019
Solid Republican
February 15, 2019
Solid Republican
February 15, 2019
Likely Democrat
2018
September 28, 2018
Toss-up
September 28, 2018
Lean Democrat
September 28, 2018
Lean Republican
August 17, 2018
Likely Republican
August 17, 2018
Likely Republican
August 17, 2018
Lean Democrat
July 6, 2018
Lean Democrat
May 16, 2018
Toss-up
May 4, 2018
Likely Democrat
May 4, 2018
Tilt Republican
March 25, 2018
Likely Democrat
March 23, 2018
Solid Republican
February 20, 2018
Tilt Republican
February 20, 2018
Solid Democrat
February 20, 2018
Solid Democrat
February 20, 2018
Solid Democrat
February 20, 2018
Likely Democrat
February 20, 2018
Tilt Democrat
February 20, 2018
Tilt Democrat
February 20, 2018
Likely Democrat
February 20, 2018
Solid Republican
February 20, 2018
Likely Republican
February 20, 2018
Solid Republican
February 20, 2018
Solid Republican
February 20, 2018
Solid Republican
February 20, 2018
Solid Republican
February 20, 2018
Solid Republican
February 20, 2018
Solid Republican
February 20, 2018
Tilt Republican
January 26, 2018
Tilt Democrat
January 22, 2018
Lean Republican
January 4, 2018
Solid Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Solid Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Republican
December 1, 2017
Lean Republican
December 1, 2017
Likely Republican
December 1, 2017
Lean Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Lean Republican
December 1, 2017
Lean Republican
December 1, 2017
Likely Democrat
September 8, 2017
Lean Republican
September 1, 2017
Lean Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Likely Republican
February 27, 2017
Likely Republican
February 27, 2017
Lean Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Lean Republican
February 27, 2017
Likely Democrat
2016
October 21, 2016
Toss-up
July 1, 2016
Solid Democrat
May 19, 2016
Solid Democrat
May 19, 2016
Solid Republican
January 8, 2016
Solid Republican
December 18, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Likely Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Tilt Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Likely Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Tilt Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
2014
October 17, 2014
Solid Republican
October 3, 2014
Likely Republican
July 18, 2014
Solid Democrat
January 6, 2014
Lean Republican
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
December 17, 2013
Likely Republican
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
September 27, 2013
Solid Republican
June 14, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Likely Republican
March 8, 2013
Likely Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Likely Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
2012
October 19, 2012
Solid Republican
October 12, 2012
Likely Republican
August 10, 2012
Solid Democrat
June 29, 2012
Lean Republican
June 29, 2012
Toss-up
June 1, 2012
Solid Republican
April 20, 2012
Likely Republican
February 10, 2012
Lean Republican
January 13, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 13, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 13, 2012
Solid Republican
January 13, 2012
Solid Republican
January 13, 2012
Solid Republican
January 13, 2012
Likely Republican
January 13, 2012
Tilt Republican
January 13, 2012
Tilt Republican
January 13, 2012
Solid Republican
January 13, 2012
Solid Republican
January 13, 2012
Solid Republican
January 13, 2012
January 13, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 13, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 13, 2012
Solid Republican
January 13, 2012
Solid Republican
January 13, 2012
Solid Democrat
2010
October 29, 2010
Tilt Republican
October 29, 2010
Tilt Republican
October 22, 2010
Tilt Republican
October 22, 2010
Toss-up
October 22, 2010
Toss-up
October 22, 2010
Solid Democrat
October 15, 2010
Likely Republican
October 15, 2010
Toss-up
October 15, 2010
Lean Democrat
October 1, 2010
Solid Republican
October 1, 2010
Lean Democrat
October 1, 2010
Lean Republican
September 24, 2010
Lean Republican
September 7, 2010
Tilt Republican
September 7, 2010
Tilt Democrat
August 23, 2010
Solid Democrat
August 23, 2010
Solid Democrat
August 23, 2010
Toss-up
August 23, 2010
Likely Democrat
August 23, 2010
Solid Republican
August 23, 2010
Likely Republican
August 23, 2010
Toss-up
August 23, 2010
Likely Democrat
August 23, 2010
Solid Republican
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010

Baselines

About
2025+1.7D 49.7, R 48.0
2024
+1.7
2022
+4.1
2020
+3.6
2018
+6.5
2016
+4.0
2014
+6.0