Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

New Jersey
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Current Rating

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Tilt D

2025 Baseline

What's This?
D +11.8
D: 55%, R: 43.2%

2026 Election

Incumbents

  • Vacant

Candidates

Unopposed

Past Elections

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Calendar

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MAR
23
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
JUN
2
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

See All

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

Primary Results in Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota

June 4, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (May 21, 2026)

May 21, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (April 23, 2026)

April 23, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

House Overview (March 12, 2026): Kentucky – New York

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Feb. 19, 2026)

February 19, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2025): Kentucky – New York

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Attorney Married to Ex-NFL Star Explores Run For Congress

December 4, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

House & Governor Report Shorts (Nov. 20, 2025)

November 20, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

12 Initial Takeaways from Tuesday’s Elections

November 5, 2025
by Nathan Gonzales

Ratings

2026
June 12, 2026
Tilt Democrat
May 21, 2026
Toss-up
February 5, 2026
Solid Democrat
December 5, 2025
Solid Democrat
December 5, 2025
Tilt Republican
December 5, 2025
Solid Democrat
December 5, 2025
Solid Republican
December 5, 2025
Solid Democrat
December 5, 2025
Solid Republican
December 5, 2025
Solid Democrat
December 5, 2025
Solid Democrat
December 5, 2025
Lean Democrat
December 5, 2025
Solid Democrat
December 5, 2025
Solid Democrat
December 5, 2025
Solid Democrat
November 11, 2025
Solid Democrat
March 7, 2025
Solid Democrat
March 7, 2025
Tilt Republican
March 7, 2025
Solid Democrat
March 7, 2025
Solid Republican
March 7, 2025
Solid Democrat
March 7, 2025
Solid Republican
March 7, 2025
Solid Democrat
March 7, 2025
Solid Democrat
March 7, 2025
Lean Democrat
March 7, 2025
Solid Democrat
March 7, 2025
Solid Democrat
March 7, 2025
Solid Democrat
2024
September 26, 2024
Solid Democrat
August 29, 2024
Solid Democrat
April 24, 2024
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2023
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2023
Tilt Republican
December 1, 2023
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2023
Solid Republican
December 1, 2023
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2023
Solid Republican
December 1, 2023
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2023
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2023
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2023
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2023
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2023
Solid Democrat
November 13, 2023
Solid Democrat
September 15, 2023
Tilt Republican
March 10, 2023
Solid Democrat
March 10, 2023
Toss-up
March 10, 2023
Solid Democrat
March 10, 2023
Solid Republican
March 10, 2023
Solid Democrat
March 10, 2023
Solid Republican
March 10, 2023
Solid Democrat
March 10, 2023
Solid Democrat
March 10, 2023
Solid Democrat
March 10, 2023
Solid Democrat
March 10, 2023
Solid Democrat
March 10, 2023
Solid Democrat
2022
November 3, 2022
Likely Democrat
October 21, 2022
Tilt Republican
January 10, 2022
Solid Democrat
January 10, 2022
Toss-up
January 10, 2022
Solid Democrat
January 10, 2022
Solid Republican
January 10, 2022
Solid Democrat
January 10, 2022
Solid Republican
January 10, 2022
Solid Democrat
January 10, 2022
Solid Democrat
January 10, 2022
Solid Democrat
January 10, 2022
Solid Democrat
January 10, 2022
Solid Democrat
January 10, 2022
Solid Democrat
2020
October 28, 2020
Likely Democrat
October 28, 2020
Tilt Democrat
October 28, 2020
Solid Democrat
October 16, 2020
Likely Democrat
September 18, 2020
Solid Republican
July 24, 2020
Toss-up
May 22, 2020
Lean Democrat
February 21, 2020
Solid Democrat
January 16, 2020
Tilt Republican
December 16, 2019
Tilt Republican
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Lean Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Tilt Democrat
December 6, 2019
Tilt Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Republican
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Likely Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Lean Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Tilt Democrat
February 15, 2019
Tilt Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Republican
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Likely Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
2018
October 26, 2018
Toss-up
October 26, 2018
Lean Democrat
September 28, 2018
Tilt Democrat
September 14, 2018
Toss-up
August 17, 2018
Tilt Republican
July 20, 2018
Lean Republican
July 13, 2018
Likely Democrat
June 6, 2018
Solid Democrat
May 16, 2018
Tilt Republican
May 16, 2018
Likely Republican
May 16, 2018
Lean Democrat
May 4, 2018
Tilt Democrat
May 4, 2018
Tilt Democrat
February 16, 2018
Lean Republican
February 16, 2018
Toss-up
February 16, 2018
Tilt Democrat
January 29, 2018
Toss-up
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Likely Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Lean Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Republican
December 1, 2017
Toss-up
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Likely Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
November 7, 2017
Lean Republican
May 19, 2017
Likely Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Likely Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Toss-up
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
2016
November 3, 2016
Tilt Democrat
October 21, 2016
Toss-up
September 30, 2016
Tilt Republican
September 2, 2016
Lean Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Likely Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
August 11, 2015
Solid Republican
August 11, 2015
Likely Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Likely Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
2014
October 29, 2014
Lean Republican
July 18, 2014
Solid Democrat
July 8, 2014
Tilt Republican
April 11, 2014
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
December 17, 2013
Toss-up
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
November 6, 2013
Toss-up
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
2012
October 12, 2012
Likely Republican
October 5, 2012
Solid Republican
August 29, 2012
Solid Republican
August 10, 2012
Solid Democrat
April 6, 2012
Solid Republican
March 23, 2012
Lean Republican
March 9, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 13, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 13, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 13, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 13, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 13, 2012
Solid Republican
January 13, 2012
Solid Republican
January 13, 2012
Likely Republican
January 13, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 13, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 13, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 13, 2012
Solid Republican
January 13, 2012
Solid Democrat
2010
October 29, 2010
Tilt Republican
October 22, 2010
Tilt Democrat
August 23, 2010
Solid Democrat
August 23, 2010
Solid Republican
August 23, 2010
Solid Democrat
August 23, 2010
Solid Republican
August 23, 2010
Lean Democrat
August 23, 2010
Solid Republican
August 23, 2010
Solid Republican
August 23, 2010
Solid Democrat
August 23, 2010
Solid Democrat
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010

Baselines

About
2025+11.8D 55.0, R 43.2
2024
+11.3
2022
+13.1
2020
+13.6
2018
+12.2
2016
+9.5
2014
+9.7