Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980
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New Jersey
House

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Final Rating

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Likely D

2022 Baseline

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D +13.1
D: 55.5%, R: 42.4%

2022 Election

Incumbents

  • Vacant

Candidate

Campaign Finance Data

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Past Elections

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President

2020
57.3%
41.4%
D
✓Democrat
2,608,335 (57.3%)
R
Republican
1,883,274 (41.4%)
Other
57,744 (1.3%)
2016
55.5%
41.4%
D
✓Democrat
2,148,278 (55.5%)
R
Republican
1,601,933 (41.4%)
Other
123,835 (3.2%)
2012
58.4%
40.6%
D
✓Democrat
2,125,101 (58.4%)
R
Republican
1,477,568 (40.6%)
Other
37,623 (1%)
2008
57.3%
41.7%
D
✓Democrat
2,215,422 (57.3%)
R
Republican
1,613,207 (41.7%)
Other
39,608 (1%)

Senate

2020
57.2%
40.9%
D
✓Democrat
2,541,178 (57.2%)
R
Republican
1,817,052 (40.9%)
Other
85,454 (1.9%)
2018
54%
42.8%
D
✓Democrat
1,711,654 (54%)
R
Republican
1,357,355 (42.8%)
Other
100,301 (3.2%)
2014
55.8%
42.3%
D
✓Democrat
1,043,866 (55.8%)
R
Republican
791,297 (42.3%)
Other
34,372 (1.8%)
2013
54.9%
44%
D
✓Democrat
740,742 (54.9%)
R
Republican
593,684 (44%)
Other
14,233 (1.1%)
2012
58.8%
39.4%
D
✓Democrat
1,985,783 (58.8%)
R
Republican
1,329,405 (39.4%)
Other
59,480 (1.8%)
2008
56%
42%
D
✓Democrat
1,951,218 (56%)
R
Republican
1,461,025 (42%)
Other
70,202 (2%)

Governor

2021
51.2%
48%
D
✓Democrat
1,333,620 (51.2%)
R
Republican
1,251,764 (48%)
Other
20,115 (0.8%)
2017
56%
41.9%
D
✓Democrat
1,203,110 (56%)
R
Republican
899,583 (41.9%)
Other
44,722 (2.1%)
2013
38.2%
60.3%
D
Democrat
809,978 (38.2%)
R
✓Republican
1,278,932 (60.3%)
Other
31,956 (1.5%)
2009
48.5%
44.9%
D
✓Democrat
1,174,445 (48.5%)
R
Republican
1,087,731 (44.9%)
Other
161,616 (6.7%)

U.S. House Composite

2020
D
✓Democrat
2,539,128 (57.3%)
R
Republican
1,843,047 (41.6%)
Other
50,748 (1.1%)
2018
D
✓Democrat
1,856,819 (59.9%)
R
Republican
1,198,664 (38.7%)
Other
43,260 (1.4%)
2016
D
✓Democrat
1,821,620 (52.6%)
R
Republican
1,541,631 (44.5%)
Other
100,060 (2.9%)
2014
D
✓Democrat
914,172 (50.2%)
R
Republican
877,265 (48.2%)
Other
29,928 (1.6%)
2012
D
✓Democrat
1,794,407 (54.7%)
R
Republican
1,430,386 (43.6%)
Other
57,161 (1.7%)
2010
D
Democrat
1,024,730 (48.3%)
R
✓Republican
1,055,299 (49.7%)
Other
41,555 (2%)

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Analysis

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Ratings

2022
November 3, 2022
Likely Democrat
October 21, 2022
Tilt Republican
January 10, 2022
Solid Democrat
January 10, 2022
Toss-up
January 10, 2022
Solid Democrat
January 10, 2022
Solid Republican
January 10, 2022
Solid Democrat
January 10, 2022
Solid Republican
January 10, 2022
Solid Democrat
January 10, 2022
Solid Democrat
January 10, 2022
Solid Democrat
January 10, 2022
Solid Democrat
January 10, 2022
Solid Democrat
January 10, 2022
Solid Democrat
2020
October 28, 2020
Likely Democrat
October 28, 2020
Tilt Democrat
October 28, 2020
Solid Democrat
October 16, 2020
Likely Democrat
September 18, 2020
Solid Republican
July 24, 2020
Toss-up
May 22, 2020
Lean Democrat
February 21, 2020
Solid Democrat
January 16, 2020
Tilt Republican
December 16, 2019
Tilt Republican
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Lean Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Tilt Democrat
December 6, 2019
Tilt Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Republican
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Likely Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Lean Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Tilt Democrat
February 15, 2019
Tilt Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Republican
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Likely Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
2018
October 26, 2018
Toss-up
October 26, 2018
Lean Democrat
September 28, 2018
Tilt Democrat
September 14, 2018
Toss-up
August 17, 2018
Tilt Republican
July 20, 2018
Lean Republican
July 13, 2018
Likely Democrat
June 6, 2018
Solid Democrat
May 16, 2018
Tilt Republican
May 16, 2018
Likely Republican
May 16, 2018
Lean Democrat
May 4, 2018
Tilt Democrat
May 4, 2018
Tilt Democrat
February 16, 2018
Lean Republican
February 16, 2018
Toss-up
February 16, 2018
Tilt Democrat
January 29, 2018
Toss-up
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Likely Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Lean Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Republican
December 1, 2017
Toss-up
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Likely Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
November 7, 2017
Lean Republican
May 19, 2017
Likely Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Likely Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Toss-up
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
2016
November 3, 2016
Tilt Democrat
October 21, 2016
Toss-up
September 30, 2016
Tilt Republican
September 2, 2016
Lean Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Likely Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
August 11, 2015
Solid Republican
August 11, 2015
Likely Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Likely Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
2014
October 29, 2014
Lean Republican
July 18, 2014
Solid Democrat
July 8, 2014
Tilt Republican
April 11, 2014
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
December 17, 2013
Toss-up
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
November 6, 2013
Toss-up
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
2012
October 12, 2012
Likely Republican
October 5, 2012
Solid Republican
August 29, 2012
Solid Republican
August 10, 2012
Solid Democrat
April 6, 2012
Solid Republican
March 23, 2012
Lean Republican
March 9, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 13, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 13, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 13, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 13, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 13, 2012
Solid Republican
January 13, 2012
Solid Republican
January 13, 2012
Likely Republican
January 13, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 13, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 13, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 13, 2012
Solid Republican
January 13, 2012
Solid Democrat
2010
October 29, 2010
Tilt Republican
October 22, 2010
Tilt Democrat
August 23, 2010
Solid Democrat
August 23, 2010
Solid Republican
August 23, 2010
Solid Democrat
August 23, 2010
Solid Republican
August 23, 2010
Lean Democrat
August 23, 2010
Solid Republican
August 23, 2010
Solid Republican
August 23, 2010
Solid Democrat
August 23, 2010
Solid Democrat
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010

Baselines

About
2025+11.8D 55.0, R 43.2
2024
+11.3
2022
+13.1
2020
+13.6
2018
+12.2
2016
+9.5
2014
+9.7
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