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Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980
Category Archive: Media Outlets
House: Money Isn’t Enough to Save Incumbents in Wave Elections
February 11, 2026
by
Nathan Gonzales
Arizona 1: Open Seat Shifts to Toss-up
October 2, 2025
by
Nathan Gonzales
Presidential: Biden and Trump Locked in Close Race
March 14, 2024
by
Nathan Gonzales
Gerrymandering Is Not to Blame for the Speaker Mess
October 16, 2023
by
Nathan Gonzales
Initial 2024 Presidential Battleground State Ratings
April 26, 2023
by
Nathan Gonzales
How Trump’s Legal Problems Could Affect Down Ballot Republicans
April 3, 2023
by
Nathan Gonzales
No One Knows for Sure How Trump’s Legal Problems Will Play Out
March 30, 2023
by
Nathan Gonzales
If History’s a Guide, Biden Ain’t Getting Any Stronger
February 2, 2022
by
Nathan Gonzales
The Problem with our Politics is not Partisanship
December 8, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Why the 2024 Presidential Race Will Start Later Than Expected
October 8, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
The One Thing Biden Can’t Afford to Lose
September 17, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
RIP, Rally ’Round the Flag
September 9, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
How Afghanistan Will (and Won’t) Matter in 2022 Midterms
September 2, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Stop Attacking Losing Candidates
August 11, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Is John Boozman Too Nice for the Republican Party?
August 6, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
When We’ll Know How Much Trump’s Support is Worth
July 16, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
These Four States Could Decide Control of Congress in 2022
June 28, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
While You Were Underground: A Political Update for Cicadas
June 17, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Decline in Ticket-splitting Reaches Beyond Congress
June 15, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Could Supreme Court Supercharge Midterms With Abortion Ruling?
June 3, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Special Elections in Redistricting Cycles: To Play or Not to Play?
May 21, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Republicans Should Disband If They Don’t Win Back the House in 2022
May 18, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
The Case to Keep Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s Cash
May 6, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Few Opportunities as Parties Battle for Senate Control
April 12, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Let’s Talk About How We Talk About House Retirements
April 11, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Three Lessons from the Ghost of Redistricting Past
April 1, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Six Senators Who Owe Their Hill Careers to Redistricting
March 19, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
How the Lack of Ticket-Splitting Leads to Gridlock
March 3, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Recent History Shows Senate Retirements Don’t Tell Us Squat
February 10, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Election Predictions Look Different (and Better) Now that All the Races are Over
January 22, 2021
by
Nathan Gonzales
Why Our 2022 Ratings Aren’t Imminent
December 23, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
How Trump’s 2024 Candidacy Could Complicate GOP Chances in 2022
December 2, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
The Fight for the Senate Continues into 2022
November 19, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
The Next Congress Will Be Filled With Losers
September 28, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
Trump Needs a Convention Bounce
September 1, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
Mississippi Senate: Espy’s 1988 convention speech offers clues to 2020 optimism
August 26, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
Politicians are the Worst (But Most Important) Political Analysts
August 11, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
Young GOP Veteran Faces Tough Road in the Suburbs
August 5, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
Should Down-Ballot Republicans Ready a ‘No Blank Check’ Strategy?
July 10, 2020
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Six Months from Election Day, Expect the Expected
May 7, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
Will There be More Republican Women in the House Next Year?
April 9, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
RIP, Election Night
February 21, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
Five Thoughts After the Las Vegas Democratic Debate
February 20, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
Fate of ‘National Security Democrats’ Provides Key to House Majority
February 5, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
Is Trump really the MVP of the GOP?
January 23, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
The Steyer Boomlet
January 21, 2020
by
Stuart Rothenberg
2020 Senate and House Outlook Looks a Lot Like It Did at the Start of 2019
January 7, 2020
by
Nathan Gonzales
Impeachment’s No ‘Game Changer’ and Other Pet Peeves
December 17, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Luke Skywalker and the Politics of Impeachment
September 26, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Trump Vulnerability in a Primary is More Fiction than Fact
September 4, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Trump Missing an Opportunity on Guns
August 26, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
How Third-Party Votes Sunk Clinton, What They Mean for Trump
August 15, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
When Trump Attacks, the Base Turns Out — For Both Parties
July 25, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Trump Admits He was a Liability in 2018
July 24, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Kentucky Senate: Seriously, Are We Doing This Again?
July 18, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
What We Can Learn from the 2004 Presidential Race
July 12, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
How Many Ways is Michigan in Play in 2020?
July 3, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
If at First You Don’t Succeed, Try, Try and Run Somewhere Else
July 2, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Rothenberg: The 2020 Presidential Race is Still Tilting Democratic
June 21, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Upcoming Debates an Important Next Stage in Presidential Campaign
June 14, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
8 Races That Will Likely Determine Control of the Senate
June 12, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Why a GOP Super PAC is Bothering to Attack Steve Bullock’s Bid for President
June 7, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Oval Office Obsessions From a Crew With Little Experience, Much Ambition
May 24, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
(Mostly) Political One-Liners: Pennsylvania Special, Kentucky Governor, and the Trail Blazers
May 23, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
What Can We Learn From the North Carolina Redo Election?
May 20, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Biden, Unions and the Politics of 2020
May 16, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Stop Grading 2020 Candidate Recruitment, Particularly This Far From Election Day
May 10, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Arthur Finkelstein Reprised with GOP’s ‘Socialists’ Cries
May 7, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Republicans Have a Post-Trump Identity Crisis on the Horizon
April 30, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
How to Survive and Thrive in Iowa — Words of Wisdom from Former Staffers
April 18, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
How Gephardt’s 2004 Iowa Team Boosted the Democratic Party
April 17, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Age, Change and the Democrats’ Challenge
April 9, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
The Case for Primaries: Arizona Edition
April 3, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Nancy Pelosi: The Democratic Party’s Undisputed Leader
April 1, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
When It Comes to Younger Voters, Watch the Margin of Victory
March 29, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Democrats Try to Snatch Defeat from the Jaws of Victory
March 27, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Can a Senator be Nominated and Win the White House?
March 13, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Fewer Members Taking the Leap to Governor
March 1, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Democrats are Right to be Wary of Howard Schultz
February 20, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
More Presidential questions for the Democrats
February 13, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
What do Democrats Want in a President?
February 7, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
A Few Thoughts on the State of the Union Address
February 7, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Maine Senate: How Vulnerable is Susan Collins?
January 25, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Can Doug Jones win a full term in Alabama?
January 17, 2019
by
Stuart Rothenberg
5 reasons why there’s still no end to the shutdown
January 14, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
2020 Senate Overview (Jan. 1, 2019) Alabama – Kansas
January 4, 2019
by
Nathan Gonzales
Why We’re Not Releasing 2020 Race Ratings Yet
December 21, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
House Primaries on the Horizon for Democrats in 2020
December 20, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Expect Record Turnout in 2020
December 13, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Are White Evangelicals the Saviors of the GOP?
December 12, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
The 2018 Midterms as the Buffet Election
December 3, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Goodbye Midterm Dynamic, Hello Presidential Politics
November 29, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
It’s Not Too Early to Start Looking at the 2020 Senate Map
November 14, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
For Handicapping Midterm Races, Old Rules May No Longer Apply
November 1, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
House Midterm Outlook: Look for a Democratic Flip
October 25, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Republican Migraines and the Midterm Elections
October 14, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Don’t Sweat the Election Night Surprises
October 10, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Prepare to Be Disappointed on Election Night
September 26, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
What 39,000 Words in 15 Profiles Didn’t Tell You About Beto O’Rourke
September 21, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
A Congressional Candidate Plays Softball in an Ad, and I Have Lots of Questions
August 30, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Congress Isn’t Perfect but the Politicians Aren’t Always to Blame
August 16, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Democratic Candidates Should Be Bolder on Gun Control, Poll Finds
August 9, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
NY 27 Rating Change: Chris Collins’ Arrest Puts Seat in Play
August 8, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Support for Roe is Up, But Other Abortion Polling Divided and Steady
August 2, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
I Met 12 Democratic Candidates in Two Days and Lived to Write About It
July 30, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Brett Kavanaugh and the Midterm Effect
July 16, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
The Wrong Fight at the Wrong Time for the GOP
June 29, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
GOP Poll: Donnelly in Position to Win in Indiana
June 15, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Steve Bannon Is Right About the Midterms — Until He Isn’t
June 14, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Colorado’s 6th District: Democrats Try to Crack the Coffman Code
June 1, 2018
by
Leah Askarinam
Why You Should Focus on Independents
June 1, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
3 Ways Nancy Pelosi Won’t Be Speaker Next Year
May 25, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
DCCC Makes Initial TV Reservations for Fall Fight
May 22, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Famous Names on the Ballot? Sure, We Got ’Em
May 21, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Rothenberg’s Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats
May 14, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
GOP Senate Targets Fade From View
May 8, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Tennessee Senate: Why I’m Cautious About Phil Bredesen’s Prospects
April 30, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
(Mostly) Political One-Liners: Hair in Montana Ads, Let’s Remember Candidates from Kentucky
April 28, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Nebraska Senate: How Vulnerable is Deb Fischer?
April 27, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
Trump Numbers Are Up. And Down. But Really Unchanged.
April 23, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Can a President Preaching Change Lead a Party of Incumbents?
April 13, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Nathan’s (Mostly) Political One-Liners: Fraudulent Signatures, Roseanne, and Kindness
April 9, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
When History Overtakes a Campaign Promise
April 6, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Nathan’s (Mostly) Political One-Liners: Barn Jackets, HGTV and Pop Punk Music
April 5, 2018
by
Nathan Gonzales
How Can the GOP Turn Out Trump Voters?
April 2, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Insiders See Democratic House Gains of 30-45 seats
March 22, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Pennsylvania 18: A Red Flag for the GOP
March 16, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Why the Gun Issue Has Shifted (It’s Not What You Think)
March 13, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Will the Suburbs Flip the House? Watch These Seats
March 6, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Running Against Pelosi May Not Save the GOP This Year
February 27, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
The GOP Catch-22 — Donald Trump
February 14, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
The Stunning ‘Role of Government’ Numbers
February 8, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Watch the Polls, Ignore the Post-Shutdown Chatter
January 29, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
It’s a Blue House Wave, but Not Yet a Senate One
January 23, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
The Democrats’ Savior
January 16, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
House Seats You Think Can’t Flip but Might
January 10, 2018
by
Stuart Rothenberg
No One Is Afraid of a Government Shutdown
December 8, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
The Battle for Orange County in the Fight for the House
November 28, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
Members Face Tough Odds in Races for Governor
November 15, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
I Interviewed 16 House Candidates in Two Days and Survived
November 13, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
LGBTQ Women Balance Opportunity, Possible Extinction in Congress
September 21, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
‘Scam PACs’ Strike Again in Utah, Wisconsin
September 13, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
The House Retirement Tide Is Coming
September 7, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
Merkley’s Mild Town Hall in a Red County
August 17, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
When Congressional Spouses (Allegedly) Misbehave
July 24, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
One Reason Why Republicans Don’t Have More Women in the Senate
July 10, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
GOP Campaign Tracker Violates Bipartisan Truce (Again)
July 7, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
Four (Almost) Famous Congressional Candidates
June 9, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
Lessons for Trump Detractors, Members of Congress From a Loyalty Expert
May 18, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
Don’t Trust Politicians Who Say They Aren’t Running for President
May 5, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
Florida 27: Ros-Lehtinen Retirement Creates Vulnerable GOP Open Seat
May 1, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
The Bipartisan Effort to Make Senate History
April 14, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
What I Learned About Polling From a Georgia House Survey
March 27, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
Looking for Clues From a 2005 Special Election in Ohio
March 23, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
House Republicans Shouldn’t Get Too Comfortable in Majority
March 10, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
Democrats Delight in Delaware Special Election
March 6, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
Mama Bear’s Unlikely Run (and Win) for Mayor
March 3, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
Jason Kander May Have Made a Big Mistake
February 22, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
At DGA, Pearson Quietly Pulling Democrats Back to Prominence
February 21, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
The Senate Revolution in North Dakota Will Not Be Televised
February 17, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
Congressional Republicans Should Be Afraid of Steve Bannon
February 14, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
How President Trump Can Avoid President Obama’s Biggest Mistake
January 25, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
The Certainty of Death, Taxes, and White Evangelicals
January 19, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
House Republicans Entrust Majority to Rogers at NRCC
January 18, 2017
by
Nathan Gonzales
Reid Boasts About Not Going Back to Nevada
December 16, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
How Tomi Lahren Could Get Elected to Congress
December 15, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
Will Applegate’s Rematch With Issa Be Successful?
December 14, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
Pelosi Remains But ‘Winter is Coming’ for Democrats
December 7, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
Gubernatorial Losers Descend on Next Congress
December 6, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
Under Next Electoral Map, Trump Would Still Have Won
December 1, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
When Orientation Is a ‘Miserable Experience’
November 30, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
Does the Country Even Want to Come Together?
November 14, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
It’s Time for Newspapers to Stop Endorsing Candidates
October 19, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
Republicans’ Agonizing Wait for Latest Diagnosis
October 11, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
The Most Important Question to Ask Trump Defectors
August 12, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
Clinton Campaign Readying National Olympic Ad Blitz
July 27, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
NRSC: GOP Senators Running for Sheriff, Not President
July 21, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
Why Republicans Decline to Attack Democrats on “Culture of Corruption”
July 13, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
Republicans Need Gary Johnson to Save the Senate
June 30, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
Safe Senator Shifts to Raise Money for Safe Colleague
June 10, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
What Katie McGinty Told Me About Her College Career
June 7, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
The Strategy That Could Have Taken Trump Down
June 3, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
When Serving Together in Congress is a Family Affair
May 25, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
Don’t Assume Paul Ryan Will be Speaker Next Year
May 19, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
Why House Democrats Need Trump to be President
May 16, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
Clinton Starts with a Decisive Advantage
May 13, 2016
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Why California Members Embrace Incumbent Ballot Designation
May 10, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
Ryan Rides to the Rescue — But Not Until 2020
May 4, 2016
by
Stuart Rothenberg
16 House Districts That Will Make (or Break) Democratic Majority
May 4, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
NRCC Reserves Ad Time for Vulnerable Members
May 2, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
GOP’s Troubles Just Beginning
April 29, 2016
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Opposition Research Comes Out of the Shadows
April 24, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
How Many Might Defect from Trump or Cruz?
April 22, 2016
by
Stuart Rothenberg
New Poll, New TV Ads in Indiana House Race
April 21, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
Democrats Likely to Bank Trio of GOP House Seats
April 18, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
Democrats Are Headed off Their Own Cliff
April 15, 2016
by
Stuart Rothenberg
This 2014 House Race May Have Predicted Trump’s Success
April 10, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
The Beginning of the End for Donald Trump
April 7, 2016
by
Stuart Rothenberg
Maybe It Really Is the Media’s Fault
April 5, 2016
by
Stuart Rothenberg
‘14 Losers Looking for Second Chance in ‘16
March 31, 2016
by
Nathan Gonzales
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