Category Archive: House

House Overview: No Guts, No Glory for Democrats

2016 House Overview (January 25, 2016) Alabama – Illinois

2016 House Overview (January 25, 2016) Indiana – New Jersey

2016 House Overview (January 25, 2016) New Mexico – Wyoming

Beshear Looks Back, Forward on Kentucky’s Political Landscape

NRCC Names Furst Johnson IE Director

Virginia 2: Rigell Retirement Shifts Seat Out of Safe for GOP

Ohio 8: The Quiet Fight to Succeed Boehner

New York 22: Hanna Departure Leaves Vulnerable Seat

New York 3: Israel Retirement Sets Up GOP Takeover Opportunity

Report Shorts (January 8, 2016) Alabama, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania

Predicting the Future and Other Delusions

Steve Israel Retirement Sets Up GOP Takeover Opportunity

Virginia 5: Hurt to Retire, Leaves Potentially Competitive Seat

New York 22: Hanna Retirement Puts Seat At Risk for Republicans

Why House Races Still Matter (Even in Safe Districts)

Pennsylvania House: Democrats Searching for Key Contenders

Stu in Review: Dumb Stuff I Wrote This Year

GOP’s Brand In More Trouble Than Its Candidates

Rothenberg’s End of the Year Awards

Illinois House: Filing Deadline Passes, Along with Two Democratic Takeover Opportunities

Florida House: New Lines Change Outlook in 5 Races

Report Shorts (December 4, 2015) California Senate, Florida Senate, Maryland Senate

Time to Stop Reporting on Committee Fundraising Numbers

Imperfect Candidates Get Elected

Report Shorts (November 20, 2015) Arizona 1, Arkansas, Kentucky Senate, New York 22

House Retirement Rush Still Short of Average

Don’t Blame Gerrymandering for GOP Civil War

Pelosi Sees a Wave; Strategists Say it’s Just a Ripple Now

John Boehner Shouldn’t Pack His Bags Just Yet

Ryan Is Damned if He Does, and Damned if He Doesn’t

Democrats Battle for Open House Seats in Maryland

Report Shorts (October 16, 2015)

State Senator Prepares GOP Primary Challenge to Shimkus

Boehner’s Exit Leaves House Republicans With Challenging Next Chapter

House Democrats Desperate to Make up Ground in New York

Report Shorts (October 1, 2015)

Does Voter Anger Explain the Success of Presidential Outsiders?

Indiana Reps Still Wrestling With Residency

Report Shorts (September 18, 2015)

No Rating Change After Benishek’s Retirement in Michigan

More House Retirements Likely to Come

Colorado 6: Can Carroll Cause Coffman to Stumble?

Report Shorts (Minnesota 2, North Dakota Governor Senate, Washington 8 Governor

Reichert Seriously Considering Washington Governor’s Race

Parties Play Politics With FEC Complaints

Campaign Committees Open Holes While Filling Others

Crist, Culver Contemplate Humbling Transition to the House

Indiana 3: Home is Where the Heart Is

Report Shorts (August 21, 2015) Florida 5, Illinois 15, Texas 16, Iowa 1 & 4

Group Suggests ‘Schock Waves’ in Illinois Special Election

A Modest Proposal: Timeshare Congressional Districts

2016 House Overview: Democrats Struggle To Gain Ground

2016 House Overview (August 11, 2015) Alabama – Illinois

2016 House Overview (August 11, 2015) Indiana – New Jersey

2016 House Overview (August 11, 2015) New Mexico – Wyoming

Democrats, Party Switchers and the Ghost of Ed Jany

A Brief Electoral History of Recently Indicted Congressmen

Less Hair Could Mean More Votes in Minnesota

Heck’s Decision Prompts Rating Change in Two Nevada Races

Pennsylvania 6: Suburban Districts Elude Democrats

Yarmuth Retirement Rumor Offers Window Into Future

Michigan 7: Democrats Target Walberg (Again)

Report Shorts (June 17, 2015) Colorado Senate, Georgia Senate, Indiana Senate, Nevada Senate

Race Plays Out on Congressional Baseball Game Field

14 Open House Seats, Few Takeover Opportunities

Arizona Landscape Shifts in Two Races

Report Shorts (May 29, 2015) Indiana Governor, Indiana Senate, Kentucky Governor, Nevada Senate

Kirkpatrick’s Decision Prompts Ratings Changes in Two Arizona Races

Nevada House: Republicans on the Defensive

Report Shorts (May 15, 2015) California Senate, California 25, Indiana Senate, Indiana 3

Caveat Emptor, in Political Giving Too

Parties Divide and Conquer Independent Spending

Texas 23: Hurd(ing) Voters

Maine 2: Bruce Almighty?

‘Big Money’ and the 2016 Elections

2016 House Overview: Democrats Begin Long Road Back to Majority

2016 House Overview (April 3, 2015) Alabama – Illinois

2016 House Overview (April 3, 2015) Indiana – New Jersey

2016 House Overview (April 3, 2015) New Mexico – Wyoming

Schilling Considering Special Election for Schock Seat

Illinois 18: Who Will Replace Aaron Schock?

Looking for Retirements in All the Wrong Places

Iowa 1: Freshman in the City

Report Shorts (March 20, 2015) Florida Senate, Maryland Senate, Michigan’s 11th, New Jersey Senate

Young Republican Explores Primary vs. Scott DesJarlais

Mississippi 1 Special: Republicans Avoid ‘08 Redo

Remembrance of Shutdowns Past

New York 19: Top-Tier Holding Pattern

Report Shorts (February 20, 2015) California 44, Mississippi 1, Missouri Senate

Past and Precedent: What Makes This Mississippi Special Election Interesting

Why Early Senate Polling Is Usually Useless

Why Special Elections Really Matter

Democrats Might Need to Lose the White House to Win the House Majority

Democrats Gamble With New York Special Election

When Activists Run for Office

Democrats Looking Beyond New York 11 Special Election

Pennsylvania 8: Democrats Looking Forward to Open Seat

When a House Member Should Retire

Why Democrats Can’t Count on Voters Blaming a ‘Republican Congress’

Can Democrats Win the House in 2016?

Will Improving Economy Help Obama’s Case on Keystone?

Republican to Retire from Competitive House Seat in New York

Very Early Handicapping on Special Election in New York’s 11th District

Beltway View Clashes with District Dynamic in Illinois’ 12th

Loss Puts Terry in Exclusive Club

Rothenberg’s End of the Year Awards for 2014

How to Handle a Broken Campaign Promise

Don’t Call 2014 An Anti-Incumbent Election

What Did — and Didn’t — Surprise Me This Cycle

Freshman Class Filled With Losers

The 2014 Elections: How’d We Do?

Louisiana Races Go Into Overtime

The Stunningly Static White Evangelical Vote

Unsuccessful House Candidate Already ‘In’ for 2016

No Guarantee Democrats Rebound in 2016

Review: 6 Races Both Parties Viewed Completely Differently

2014: Plenty of Surprises, but None Totally Unexpected

The Midterms and the Super Bowl, a Tale of Two Routs

Jesse Ferguson Lives to Fight Another Day

Election Eve Update: House Republicans on Edge of Good, Great Election Night

Obama’s Midterm Loss Record Could Make History

Think more competitive House races would help? They might actually make things worse.

House Outlook: Measuring the GOP Wave

What Counts As a GOP Wave in 2014?

Will Obama Leave the Democratic Party Better Than He Found It?

Seven More House Races Creep Toward Republicans

A Good Year May Not Save These Three Vulnerable House Republicans Either

Wither the National House Vote?

Democrats Decidedly on Defense in the House

6 Races Both Parties View Completely Differently

Three Election Trends That Could End in 2014

Could a Four-Second Mistake Cost a Candidate Thousands of Dollars?

Democrats Focus on Open Seats, Weak Incumbents for House Bright Spots

Shift in Landscape Makes Bigger GOP House Gains Possible

The Election Results Don’t Matter

Republicans Ready to Add to House Majority

The Amazingly Static House Playing Field

The Republican Brand’s Recovery Tour — Sort Of

Will Women Lose Ground in the House GOP After 2014?

A National Election or a Localized One?

Putting House Expectations Into Context

The Best Ads of 2014 – Oh Really?

Republicans Use Birth Control as Campaign Wedge

House Candidate May Have Faulty Disclaimer in Campaign Ad

And the Winner of the GOP’s Civil War Primary Is…Part II

Wave or No Wave, House Landscape Favors Republicans

Self-Fulfilling Prophecy Might Be Why Americans Hate Congress

Inside House Democrats’ Expanding Ground Game

New Poll Numbers Reinforce Bush-Obama Comparisons

President George W. Obama Meets the Midterms

So You Want to Be a Political Handicapper? 2014 Edition

Chuck Schumer’s Dream: A Democratic Nightmare

GOP Can’t Catch a Break in Congressional Baseball Recruitment

‘Would You Rather?’ House Race Edition

Fight for the House About 2016, not 2014

2014 House Overview (July 18, 2014) Alabama – Indiana

2014 House Overview (July 18, 2014) Iowa – Oklahoma

2014 House Overview (July 18, 2014) Oregon – Wyoming

Could Upbeat Economic News Help Obama, Democrats?

New Jersey 3: So Close, Yet So Far Away

Arizona 7: The Name Game

House Report Shorts (July 8, 2014)

Why Democrats and Republicans Can’t Be Friends

How Parties Communicate Without Coordinating

Senate Long Shots Find Success Down the Ballot

Beware ‘Anti-Incumbent’ Election Hysteria

Minnesota 8: Rumble on the Range

Virginia 10: The Party That Cried Wolf

Report Shorts (June 20, 2014) SC Senate, Maine 2, Mississippi Senate, Virginia 7

In Campaign Ads, ‘Week One’ Is Still Months Away

How and Why are Two Separate Questions in Cantor Loss

Why Do We Suddenly Care About Races for Lt. Governor?

California 25: Another District Falls Off the List of Competitive Races

West Virginia 2: Don’t Count Out the Republican From Maryland

House Report Shorts (May 28, 2014) Georgia, Idaho, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Texas

Can an Endorsement Hurt the Endorsed Candidate?

The Long Lost Tale of Phil Maloof

Democrats Wield Abortion Rights as Campaign Weapon in Primaries, Too

The New World of Election Coverage and Analysis: A Case Study

The Most Influential Losing Congressional Candidate in the Country

Democrats Won’t Have a Candidate in Competitive Florida District, Race moves to Safe

Michigan: Midwest Melee

Maine 2: Out in the Open

Report Shorts (May 9, 2014) Georgia Governor, Hawaii Governor, North Carolina Senate, and more

Why This Year’s Primaries Won’t End GOP Civil War

And the Winner of the GOP’s Civil War Primary Is …

Beware of the Surprise House Primary Losers

Democrats Pin Hopes on New Candidate, Unconventional Process in Florida’s 13th District

How to Ruin Your Interview With Stu Rothenberg

Rating New York’s 11th District and One of My Worst Mistakes as a Political Handicapper

North Carolina: Primary Purpose

Wisconsin 6: Open Seat B’gosh

Charleston Gazette Endorsements Need a Little Perspective

Obama’s Foreign Policy Impacts 2014 Elections — Really

Why TV Airtime Reservations Are More Important Than Ever

How to Handicap a Campaign’s Ground Game in 2014

Republicans to Maintain, and Potentially Grow, House Majority

2014 House Overview (April 11, 2014) Alabama – Indiana

2014 House Overview (April 11, 2014) Iowa – Oklahoma