Analysis

1217 Results

Ratings Change: South Dakota Senate from Republican Favored to Lean Republican

Republican Mike Rounds continues to underperform in what has become a whacky three-way fight (four-way, if you count the Libertarian on the ballot). While the state’s Republican bent could well bail him out in November, and the NRSC has allocated money for the race, we can no longer rule out the possibility of a strange […]

Michigan Senate Seat Moves Away from Republicans

While the campaign of Michigan GOP Senate nominee Terri Lynn Land crows about a new Wenzel Research poll showing her tailing Democratic nominee Gary Peters by less than three percentage points, it’s increasingly difficult to see this contest as highly competitive. A year and a half ago, we noted that the retirement of Michigan Democratic […]

What If I’m Wrong About GOP Flipping at Least 7 Seats?

A few weeks ago I wrote Senate Republicans would gain at least seven seats, even though the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call race ratings showed a likely Republican gain of five to eight seats. That expectation was based on national survey results that showed the president extremely is unpopular and voters are unhappy with the direction […]

Three Election Trends That Could End in 2014

I’m not certain how long a trend has to exist before it earns the status of an immutable political “law,” but three longtime truths are threatened this election cycle. Will all of them fall in November? Trend #1: One party holds the Pennsylvania governorship for eight years and then loses the office to the other […]

Fight for the Senate: Trajectory Unchanged

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Family Ties May Not Be Enough to Save Vulnerable Senators

It seems like everyone wrote the story: Family political dynasties were supposed to save Mark Begich, Mark Pryor and Mary L. Landrieu, the trio of vulnerable Democratic senators running for re-election in Republican-leaning states. But as the sports adage says, “That’s why they play the games.” The three Democrats’ strong family connections to voters in […]

Senate Chairmen Try to Avoid Historic Home-State Losses

With just weeks to go before Election Day, the fight for the Senate is coming down to a handful of states, and two of them are very familiar to the chairmen of the two Senate campaign committees. Kansas Republican Jerry Moran and Colorado Democrat Michael Bennet are trying to avoid becoming the first senate campaign […]

Fight for Senate Control Down to Five States

With six weeks to go, the fight for control of the Senate is down to five states, four of them currently held by Democrats. Republicans must win only two of those contests to guarantee the 51 seats they need to control the Senate for the last two years of Barack Obama’s presidency. And they need […]

A Bible, a Keg Stand, and a Snowmobile: The Keys to Holding a Democratic Majority in the Senate

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The Election Results Don’t Matter

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