Analysis

4239 Results

An Early Look at (Too) Early Data on SCOTUS Abortion Ruling

The Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade is a historic event, but it will take at least a few weeks, if not longer, to know whether it is an election-changing event.  Arguably the worst time to measure the political impact of an event is while it is still going on. The second worst […]

Iowa 3: Axne on the Front Lines

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Report Shorts (June 17, 2022)

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Rating change: Texas’ 34th District moves onto fall battlefield

While it’s wise not to overreact to special election outcomes, don’t dismiss Republican Mayra Flores’ special election victory in Texas' 34th District.  There are some reasons to qualify Tuesday’s outcome, including the fact that Republicans outspent Democrats by a sizable margin, and the seat is going to be different (and more Democratic) in the November […]

New Hampshire Redistricting: Finally

It was never supposed to be this difficult. Following the 2020 Census, New Hampshire was apportioned two congressional districts: the same number it has had since 1883. That means mapmakers had the job of drawing one single line, dividing the state into two seats. And for the past century, they have drawn that line straight […]

Pennsylvania 7: Same Faces, Different Races

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Missouri Redistricting: Elusive Competitiveness

One of the last states to finalize its new congressional map, Missouri, ended up with a plan that will probably keep the partisan breakdown of its delegation intact. But a pair of open-seat races still guarantees some turnover in the next Congress. Republican Gov. Mike Parson signed off on the new map in May, following […]

Kansas Redistricting: Why Not Split Wyandotte?

A drawn-out redistricting process in Kansas resulted in few alterations overall to its congressional map, but the state’s only Democratic-held seat will likely be even more competitive this November. Kansas is no stranger to dramatic redistricting cycles, and this most recent round proved no different. Earlier in February, Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly vetoed the plan […]

New York Redistricting Redux: Competitive Empire State

It’s been a journey to get to a final congressional map in New York, but it looks as if the maps for 2022, at least, are finally completed. Democrats in the state legislature had drawn a map designed to help their party flip as many as three GOP-held seats. But a Republican lower court judge […]

Louisiana Redistricting: Not Much New from Baton Rouge

A straightforward status quo update to Louisiana’s congressional map took an anything-but-straightforward path to reality.  With Louisiana retaining its six House districts for another decade, many Democrats had hoped for the creation of a second majority-Black seat to go alongside the current 2nd District; the state is 33 percent Black but just one of six […]