Here are some polls on statewide ballot measures that were released too late to be included in the Rothenberg Political Report‘s original ballot measure rundown. Of special note are one poll which shows Arizona’s same-sex marriage ban trailing badly (though another poll has it comfortably ahead); a second recent survey in blue-state Oregon that has a parental-consent-for-abortion measure…
Two factors have come together to enhance Democratic prospects for a major House sweep — and neither one has much to do with the quality of Democratic recruiting in the two dozen or so top-tier Democratic House opportunities. First, a handful of Republican House nominees with considerable political baggage have created competitive races for Democrats in places they…
The new October 27, 2006 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The new ratings are available online, but for the full explanation and analysis, you must subscribe to the print edition. House RatingsSenate RatingsGubernatorial Ratings
With only a couple of weeks until Election Day, we know there will be a Democratic wave on Nov. 7. And we can be fairly certain that by historical standards it will be high – possibly very high. But we still don’t know how many Republicans once considered safe will be swept out of office. The national political…
President Bush and his allies have spent months trying to drum up support for the administration’s Iraq policies by arguing that the Iraq War isn’t merely an isolated battle but rather the front line in a much larger war against terrorism. Of course, that’s not a new strategy. They did the same thing leading up to the 2004…
If you make your living as a political analyst and handicapper (and the odds are very good that you don’t), you’re facing an interesting dilemma right about now. Do you add every possible House upset race that you can think of to your list of competitive races, or do you keep your list as small as possible, listing…
Contrary to published reports that the Republican National Committee has decided to “write off” the Ohio Senate race, the RNC is about to begin a new, statewide TV buy in Ohio on behalf of the candidacy of Sen. Mike DeWine (R-OH). The buy, which costs in excess of $1 million, is scheduled to last for two weeks. Polling…
Three weeks ago, some people were talking about a Republican surge that never really existed. Now, others mistakenly are talking as if the page scandal surrounding ex-Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) hasfundamentally changed the election cycle. It hasn’t. What we are seeing, increasingly, is 1994, with the parties reversed. The midterm elections overwhelmingly remain a referendum on President Bush…
Two recent Democratic polls show Cong. Jim Ryun (R) in a surprisingly tight contest in the 2nd District of Kansas. But Republicans are countering with numbers of their own. 2004 nominee Nancy Boyda (D) is taking on the congressman, hoping to avenge her 56%-41% loss to Ryun last cycle. An October 2-6 survey by Infomark Research for Boyda…