For some Democrats, including political strategists Mara Vanderslice and Eric Sapp of Common Good Strategies, the answer to whether Democrats should pursue evangelical voters is a no-brainer. Vanderslice, the founder of the political consulting firm that seeks to help Democratic officeholders and candidates appeal to religious — specifically evangelical — voters, and Sapp, a senior partner in the…
The new March 23, 2007 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial…
Click here for the accompanying Close Calls chart. We are just a couple of months into the 2008 election cycle, but already House targets for next year are being thrown about wildly, with the usual supportive demographic and electoral data. Unfortunately, all numbers aren’t equally useful in discovering who is at serious risk of losing in 2008 and…
Nobody should be surprised by the overreaction to the Hillary Clinton/Apple pseudo TV spot posted on YouTube. Reporters (and political consultants) simply love anything new and creative, even if its political impact is non-existent. The ad, fashioned after an Apple ad from 1984, got tons of airtime earlier this week as the cable networks and talking heads buzzed…
Ladies and gentlemen, tonight the role of Hamlet, previously played by former New York Gov. Mario Cuomo (D), will be played by Chuck Hagel. After a few days of frenzied speculation about whether Hagel would seek the Republican nomination for president, the Nebraska Senator announced on Monday that he would make a decision later in the year. So…
The following are excerpts from an op-ed piece in the Sunday, March 18, 2007 in the Los Angeles Times. At this point in past presidential cycles, much of the campaign activity would be going on behind the scenes. Operatives would be focused on raising money, putting together state organizations in Iowa and New Hampshire and generally building a…
Each presidential election cycle is unique, but you can count on certain developments every time. There are candidate boomlets, questions about the frontrunners, talk of deadlocked conventions and multiple scenarios of various credibility. Scenarios are a lot like opinions or blogs — pretty much everybody has one. But at least I’m usually reasonably comfortable with one scenario that…
I probably sound like a broken record, but I’ve had it with people who still don’t know the difference between political polls and advocacy telephone calls. Polls are methodologically rigorous public opinion surveys of generally 500 to 1,000 people intended to learn about and measure voters’ opinions and test possible campaign messages. Advocacy telephone calls, on the other…
The new March 9, 2007 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. Here’s a sample of the stories in this issue. To subscribe, just go to the website and click on the Google Checkout button to pay by credit card or you can send in a check. Florida 16: Instant ContestBy Nathan…
If you listen to Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) talk for a few minutes, you are likely to think that she doesn’t have the toughness and quickness to hold off her likely Democratic challenger, Rep. Tom Allen. Well, stop thinking that way. I don’t know whether Collins will be able to swim against a potentially strong anti-President Bush, anti-Iraq…