Analysis

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It Ain’t Over Till the Fat Lady Sings … and She Hasn’t Yet

OK, it’s official: The Democratic race for president is officially screwed up. Forget the silly candidate spinning. With any luck, you weren’t listening when Illinois Sen. Barack Obama’s operatives told you what New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton needed to do in order to win or how it’s impossible for her to win enough delegates […]

It Ain’t Over Till the Fat Lady Sings … and She Hasn’t Yet

By Stuart Rothenberg OK, it’s official: The Democratic race for president is officially screwed up. Forget the silly candidate spinning. With any luck, you weren’t listening when Illinois Sen. Barack Obama’s operatives told you what New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton needed to do in order to win or how it’s impossible for her to […]

Once Blue-Chip Candidates, Now Duds

National Democrats and Republicans spend most of the off-year focusing on two key areas: recruiting and fundraising. But as the cycle progresses, candidates move from names on a piece of paper to the campaign trail, where the road can be much tougher. And in the end, some candidates simply don’t live up to the hype […]

Illinois 14: Now a Toss-Up

The race to succeed former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R) is too close to call, and we’ve changed our rating of the race from Lean Republican to Toss-Up, in advance of Saturday’s special election. Jim Oberweis (R) and Bill Foster (D) have both spent heavily from their own pockets, and both the NRCC and DCCC […]

Can John McCain Win in Spite of the Republican Brand?

It would take two or three columns to adequately list the GOP’s problems going into the 2008 general election, but if there is a fundamental one facing the Republican presidential nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain, it is the damage to the party’s brand. It’s an understatement to observe that Americans have a low opinion of […]

GOP Mines for Congressional Seats in Northeast Pennsylvania

What comes to mind when you think of Northeast Pennsylvania? For me, it is the Steamtown National Historic Site (formerly Steamtown USA), the Scranton boondoggle that honors steam railroading and benefited from the largess of then-Rep. Joe McDade (R). It’s the now abandoned anthracite coal mines of Coaldale and Lansford, with their Slovak and Carpatho-Rusyn […]

Obama’s Appeal Depends on Your Definition of Change

Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) continues to promise change and stress his ability to unite Americans. It’s a feel-good campaign built on soaring rhetoric and good intentions. Pardon me if all of the fawning from the national media, and the endorsements from Caroline Kennedy and Garrison Keillor, leave me less than convinced that he can bridge […]

New Print Edition: 2008 Senate Outlook

The February 22, 2008 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of […]

New Print Edition: 2008 Senate Outlook

The February 22, 2008 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of […]

Illinois 11: GOP Nominee Baldermann Ending Bid

New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann (R) is expected to end his congressional bid, according to GOP sources. The open seat, being vacated by Cong. Jerry Weller (R), was already a headache for Republicans, but this development is likely to make it even more difficult. Democrats have a strong nominee in State Senate Majority Leader Debbie […]