The Republican field to replace former NRCC Chairman Tom Reynolds in New York’s 26th District is about to be cleared for businessman Chris Lee. Iraq war veteran David Bellavia is expected to exit the race soon, according to GOP sources, leaving Lee with a clear path to the nomination. The Democratic field is still uncertain […]
In some House and Senate contests, the incumbent can “put away” the challenger with an early negative media blitz that discredits him before he has been able to get himself known. At other times, the incumbent can safely ignore the challenger rather than giving him the credibility he will never get. You can never be […]
The stage is set for the U.S. Senate race in Idaho. Jim Risch won the GOP nomination Tuesday, the first step for the lieutenant governor in his effort to keep the seat in Republican hands after the Larry Craig debacle. Former Cong. Larry LaRocco won the Democratic nomination, but earned a surprisingly low 72% against […]
Sen. Mitch McConnell may not be quite as vulnerable as a recent, and questionable, public poll suggests. The Kentucky senator leads wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford (D) 50%-39% in a new poll released by McConnell’s campaign. The numbers fly in the face of a Rasmussen Poll showing Lunsford ahead of the incumbent 49%-44%. McConnell’s survey, conducted […]
Much has been made of the fact that President Bush won Mississippi’s 1st district by more than 20 points against Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004. Too much. Newly elected Rep. Travis Childers’ (D) district isn’t the only one that voted solidly for Bush and yet sends a Democrat to Congress. Even before the 2006 […]
There is panic in the Republican streets these days. GOP elected officials and strategists ranging from Reps. Tom Davis (Va.) and Tom Cole (Okla.) to former Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) and Karl Rove all think their party is in free fall and needs to change. This is news? The polls have shown this for more […]
Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) leads appointed-Sen. Roger Wicker (R) 48%-40% in the Mississippi Senate race, according to a new poll released by the Democrat’s campaign and the DSCC. Musgrove benefits from higher name identification, and the race will close, but the initial numbers are good for the Democrat. Musgrove had a total name identification […]
Some of the things I have said over the past few weeks about the Mississippi 1st district special election I now think were wrong. Initially, I assumed (without a lot of thought, actually) that Greg Davis would win narrowly. I imagined that if he lost, the major reason would be the mood of the electorate. […]
The May 14, 2008 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of […]
Hours after the results were tallied in Louisiana’s 6th district special election, both parties issued assessments about the efficacy of GOP ads linking the winner, Don Cazayoux (D), to presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). Democrats proclaimed the strategy a failure, while the National Republican Congressional Committee disagreed, asserting that […]